Fantasy Football Fanhouse

Fantasy Reality Check: A Giant Problem

Matt Snyder — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

The 2008 New York Giants were a power football team. They led the NFL in rushing yards with more than 2,500. They had two runners go for over 1,000 yards while another averaged 5.3 yards per carry in limited action. Derrick Ward's departure wasn't supposed to matter, as Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw would continue to spearhead a dynamic rushing offense behind a great offensive line. In theory at least. Instead, the 2009 Giants are a shell of their former selves in terms of running the football.

Sure, they've had their moments and entered Sunday seventh in the NFL in rushing yards. But their yards per carry were significantly down and they weren't running it near as much. With the increase in passing, the Giants offense seemed to have lost its identity. With a bye week to prepare and a cushy soft Atlanta run defense coming to town, Week 11 seemed the perfect time to bring that dominant rushing attack back.

Instead, the Giants' run game flopped. Jacobs only carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards. His touchdown was a bit of a consolation prize for fantasy owners, but it still wasn't he the day we envisioned for him after looking at the numbers leading up the game. Bradshaw also carried the rock 12 times, but he only found room for 34 yards.

Even worse for fantasy owners of Jacobs and Bradshaw was the fact that Eli Manning torched the Falcons for 384 passing yards and three touchdowns. They were heavily reliant on the pass because they couldn't run -- against a bad run defense -- and were successful throwing the football. And they won.

Simply put: it's time to drastically downgrade both Jacobs and Bradshaw. So, yeah, the matchup next week against a banged up Broncos team that has lost four straight games and been shredded on the ground recently looks like a tasty treat for Jacobs and Bradshaw. So did Sunday against Atlanta. Jacobs is a low-tier RB2 and Bradshaw's a bench player in most leagues.

Other Reality Checks

o. The Saints running back situation is a coin flip. It's the old Broncos or Patriots. With Reggie Bush out of the picture and the Saints facing a hapless defensive unit in Tampa, many liked Pierre Thomas to have a top-10 week. I was reluctant to endorse him as elite initially because he's been so unreliable from week to week, but I caved in and gave him a significant boost once word broke that Bush was out. And Thomas did run well, but he didn't get the right chances. He had 11 carries for 92 yards while Mike Bell had 13 carries, 75 yards and two goal-line touchdowns. Bush should be back next week and the Saints are playing a tough Patriots team. I'm not sure I'd trust any of these backs, as they'll likely be passing frequently.

o. In our podcast, we warned against ignoring bad real games and what they can do for you in fantasy. We pointed to the Lions-Browns game and what it could provide in terms of numbers, but this completely exceeded my greatest of expectations. I loved Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith to have big games and foresaw the decent numbers for Jamal Lewis. But Brady Quinn and Matthew Stafford combined for 726 passing yards and nine touchdown passes. That's a lot of fantasy points. While we're here, let's not discount the work of Stafford.

Stafford has had his ups and downs as a rookie, but played well last week against a tough Vikings defense. He's playing through pain and has started to rely more on his running backs and tight ends -- knowing his receivers haven't been great with their hands. Smith caught four passes for 104 yards and rookie Brandon Pettigrew caught six passes for 72 yards while Dennis Northcutt and Bryant Johnson were passed over much of the afternoon. Stafford was on the same page with Megatron, and it paid off. What a day. The Lions defense is a sieve, so they'll have to be passing frequently the rest of the way. Stafford can provide a good option in leagues where you play multiple quarterbacks and is a great own in dynasty or large keeper leagues.

o. After a 77-yard, two-touchdown afternoon, we can safely say the Patriots are going to stick with Laurence Maroney as their feature back. The offense is presently firing on all cylinders, so there's no reason to change. I'm not worried about the possible return of Sammy Morris, either.

o. You know why I despise fantasy kickers? Because Billy Cundiff was unemployed last week and he kicked five field goals Sunday. Because Nick Folk was 10th in kicking points before the week and ended up with one point. And because there are multiple examples like this every single week. There is no method to the madness. Every league should outlaw them. I've done so in my two hometown leagues and it's the most fun I've ever had. All the fun without many of the headaches. Seriously, let's all eliminate them from fantasy football.

o. Think it's not worth carrying a handcuff running back? Ask Michael Turner owners how they enjoyed Jason Snelling on Sunday. Ask Cedric Benson owners if Bernard Scott was acceptable. Ask Julius Jones owners if Justin Forsett was OK. LeSean McCoy filling in for Brian Westbrook? Money. Better yet, find those owners who didn't get a hold of the handcuff and see how they enjoyed watching the backups play well with their starter on the bench. This is also the position from where we saw Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Mike Bell and Laurence Maroney emerge. The lesson? If you own Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene is on the waiver wire, for example, dump your fifth wideout or third quarterback for Greene immediately.

o. Matt Forte still has no room to run. This isn't new information, but he was -- once again -- relegated to attempting to gain some fantasy relevance in the passing game. Last week it worked out well, as he had 120 receiving yards. This time around, not so much, as Forte had just 20 receiving yards to accompany his 34 rushing yards. To rub salt in the wound, rookie runner Kahlil Bell took his first carry 72 yards. He had running room and then it was off to the races. Does the offensive line have a personal problem with Forte? Jokes aside, Forte is easily the biggest first-round bust of 2009.

Fantasy Reality Check: A Giant Problem originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Wrap: T.O. Is Alive

Matt Snyder — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Riser of the Week: Terrell Owens came into Sunday with just 26 catches for 366 yards and a single touchdown -- in nine games. Considering the Bills were switching back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who did no favors for T.O. when at the helm earlier this season, there was very little reason to start Owens in many fantasy leagues. Instead, T.O. reminded us how cruel a mistress fantasy football can be. He's still alive and kicking, as he ushered forth a vintage stat line. Nine catches for 197 yards and a touchdown. Is this 2007? I'm not buying any sort of extended rejuvenation moving forward, but it probably felt good for T.O. -- if only for one Sunday in 2009.

More: Top Performers | Waiver Wire Pickups | Latest Player News

Faller of the Week: The Cowboys passing offense generated just 158 yards. Sure, the Redskins entered the game ranked as the top pass defense in the NFL, but the Cowboys weren't even trying until they had to. Tony Romo completed just 15 of 27 passes for a touchdown and a pick. Miles Austin was shut out for three quarters. Jason Witten only gained 43 yards, further cementing his status as a draft bust for '09. Roy Williams didn't catch a single pass, which means he'll be whining again this week. All in all, it was an awful day for the 'Boys through the air. Hopefully it's not lost on the coaching staff that the only scoring drive of the day was all pass plays. Of course, they do face the Raiders next week -- a team that can't stop anyone on the ground.

Other Shifts in Value

Robert Meachem - Sure, his two touchdowns were his only catches, but at some point you can't ignore the scores anymore. That's four in his last three games and six this year. He should certainly be owned in all leagues, if for nothing more than bench depth.

Kellen Winslow - Sunday provided us a reminder how fickle tight ends working with a rookie quarterback can be. I like Winslow to bounce back, though. The five catches (and 13 total targets) are a good indication Freeman trusts him.

Kevin Boss - Like Meachem, Boss also has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Jason Snelling - His value is completely inverse to Michael Turner's. Monitor the latter's status.

Adrian Peterson - Just 82 rushing yards and no scores? We need more than that from an overall top pick, especially against a bad team.

Nate Burleson - Last week was an aberration (when he was shut out). The six-catch, 100-yard outing was more like the Burleson we've seen much of this year.

Heath Miller - After three sub-par weeks in a row, Miller broke out in grand fashion, throwing up 95 yards and a score.

Jamaal Charles - 17 carries for 58 yards doesn't look great in a vacuum, but Charles did other things to provide us with some serious optimism. First of all, he averaged 3.4 yards per carry, which is exactly what the Steelers' top-ranked run defense had allowed entering the game. Secondly, he caught a touchdown pass, showing the positives of his involvement in the passing game. Third, he took a kickoff back for a touchdown. The more new head coach Todd Haley sees of Charles, the more he has to be impressed. In three of the next four games, the Chiefs square off against lackluster run defenses (San Diego, Buffalo and Cleveland). It's a good time to own the budding Charles. My only question is, what took so long?

Maurice Jones-Drew - The Bills entered the game as the worst run defense in the NFL. MJD mustered just 66 yards on 25 carries. Sure, the touchdown was nice, but what gives?

Greg Jennings - Neither the hill of Sunday or the valleys of much of 2009 were as drastic as T.O., but Jennings was another who channeled the ghosts of fantasy past on Sunday. Widely considered one of the bigger busts in fantasy football, Jennings showed the masses why he was so hyped in the preseason, grabbing five passes for 126 yards and a score. There is definitely hope for sustainable growth, because the Packers are going to be passing quite frequently the rest of the way.

Vernon Davis - Told ya last week it was a temporary blip on the radar for this beast. Never sit him. Ever.

Mohamed Massaquoi - Granted, it was against the Lions, but Brady Quinn appeared to be a functioning quarterback. If that continues, Massaquoi will have value in deeper leagues. He's an add for now, but don't go crazy.

Kevin Smith - He still didn't find many running lanes through the porous offensive line, but Smith caught four passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. This kind of growth -- being involved in the passing game -- gives me some confidence that Smith can be a reliable flex play when the matchup is right. At Cincinnati in Week 13 is not one of those times, but a home date against Arizona in Week 15 will work out OK.

Santana Moss - Jason Campbell just doesn't have enough time to look far downfield often. Thus, the underneath throws to a running back, tight end or Antwaan Randle El are much more prevalent than to a deep threat like Moss.

Derrick Mason - He's still the Ravens' most trusted receiver and they won't be able to run much against the Steelers next week.

Pierre Garcon - Two straight productive games, but there is no rhyme or reason to how Peyton Manning decides to spread the ball around (for evidence, I'll throw out the name Tom Santi). Garcon will end the season with solid totals, but you can't tell week to week which line you'll get.

Anquan Boldin - Suffice it to say, he's healthy. This is the Boldin you drafted. Enjoy him down the cakewalk of a schedule.

James Laurinaitis - Don't usually dabble in IDP players here, but the son of a Road Warrior collected a whopping 16 tackles Sunday. It's easily a career high and a great sign of what he can be to that improving defense.

Bernard Scott - Good day for the rookie, as he gave the Bengals reason to leave Larry Johnson where he belongs -- riding pine. Scott won't retain value as more than a handcuff once Cedric Benson comes back (should be next week), but it's nice to see he can step up to the challenge.

Raiders running backs - Great for the team and all the players in terms of real football. That's an impressive win for Tom Cable and his troops. As far as fantasy football, though, we're left scratching our heads. Justin Fargas had eight carries; Michael Bush four and Darren McFadden six. Bush appeared the most adept, again, but got the fewest touches. Moving forward, I'd be inclined to avoid them all -- considering there aren't any bye weeks left.

Wes Welker - Especially in point-per-reception leagues. 15 catches? Are you kidding me?

Braylon Edwards - Can't say this one was overly surprising, as Edwards was near-silent. He should only be started in easy matchups. Against the Buccaneers in Week 14 will qualify.

Knowshon Moreno - Due to Josh McDaniels utterly panicking -- like using an injured Kyle Orton for most of the game -- Moreno only carried the ball 10 times. He gained 80 yards, but the lack of touches prevented him from a big day. Also, he fumbled into the end zone. The ball was nearly breaking the plane, but replay reviews upheld the fumble. I still like Knowshon against lesser defenses moving forward, like Kansas City in Week 13.

Philip Rivers - Unfortunately, the Chargers didn't need to pass. He'll be back, though, you can bet on it.

Fantasy Football Wrap: T.O. Is Alive originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Full Speed Ahead for the Cardinals

Matt Snyder — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Two weeks ago, the Carolina Panthers went into Arizona and picked Kurt Warner off five times en route to an easy victory over the defending NFC champions. Some began to fear the old man was beginning to lose his touch. If he did, what would happen to the Cardinals' juggernaut of a fantasy football unit?

All they've done since then is score 72 points in two games and looked better than ever.

Last week, they undressed the Bears in Chicago, as Warner threw five touchdown passes. We started to see some offensive balance, though, as Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells combined for 149 yards on 28 carries. This week, the Cardinals got balance between running and passing again, in addition to the return of Anquan Boldin.

The result was 462 yards, four touchdowns and five players who were very solid starts in fantasy football: Warner (340 yards, 2 touchdowns), Wells (117 yards from scrimmage, 2 touchdowns), Steve Breaston (4 catches, 79 yards, touchdown), Larry Fitzgerald (7 catches, 73 yards, touchdown) and Boldin (8 catches, 105 yards).

There's good reason to believe games like this will continue. Not only due to the health of Boldin and emergence of Wells as a solid every-down back, but because of the schedule. You could say the Cards played a porous defense in Chicago and a bad Seahawks defense this week. That might be the case, but here's what they've got the rest of the way (through Week 16, which is when fantasy football seasons typically end).

Team (total defense rank/run defense rank/pass defense rank)*
Rams (28, 27, 23)
Titans (31, 18, 32)
Vikings (18, 6, 21)
49ers (19, 3, 29)
Lions (26, 17, 31)
Rams (28, 27, 23)

* - Entering Sunday

So, as you can see. It's a pretty easy road. Against this schedule -- except for Wells against the Vikings and Niners -- I would advise all five of the aforementioned starters in nearly every fantasy football league. The only real question is if the rookie Wells keeps things going, but you have to ride him against the Rams this coming week. If you can still trade, you'd be advised to acquire these guys if you can.

Ride those Cards full speed ahead, as they are going to pile up the stats. It's a fantasy football paradise!

Other Reality Checks

o. Last week, I mentioned how much I love Chris Johnson the rest of the way. I'm even more confident now. In fact, I'm declaring that he becomes the first player since Jamal Lewis (in 2003) to reach 2,000 rushing yards in a season. That would make him the sixth player in NFL history to accomplish this feat and -- coincidentally -- the third to do so at age 24.

o. Kyle Orton left Sunday's game with an injured ankle. Last season, he injured his ankle and it completely altered his production. In 2008, Orton played seven games before his ankle injury game (home against the Lions). He threw for 1,669 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions. His quarterback rating in the month of October, by the way, was 106.2. When he returned from the ankle injury, Orton played seven games. He passed for 1,195 yards and eight touchdowns. He also threw eight picks and his rating was in the mid-60s. I don't know if it was the cold, pure coincidence or his ankle, but something happened to Orton. Well, Denver gets cold late in the season, too, and Orton's ankle is hurt again.

There are plenty of reasons to believe Orton -- who entered Sunday with an eerily similar 1,838 yards, nine touchdowns and four picks -- has a bad second half again. If he's healthy enough to play. If he's not, Chris Simms -- who was brutal Sunday -- steps in. Either way, I'm selling Brandon Marshall and giving up on anyone else in the passing game. On the flip-side, the Broncos will likely have to shift to a run-and-defense plan, in which case Knowshon Moreno sees a significant boost in value.

o. Last week, we mentioned how much better it is -- for the most part -- to spot-play defenses. We saw the Titans (22 points) and Dolphins (13) prove us correct. For next week, take a look at the Jags (host the Bills), Cardinals (face the Rams), Bengals (host the Raiders) and even the Lions (seriously, they pressured the quarterback well against the Vikings and they face the Browns in Week 11). The Steelers (against KC) and Saints (against TB) should already be owned in every league.

o. Steven Jackson has now rushed for 414 yards in his past three games, and he's now finally hitting pay dirt, with two touchdowns in consecutive games. Sunday, he also added nine catches for 45 yards, giving him 1,146 yards from scrimmage on the season (an average of 127 per game). Next week, he faces an Arizona run defense that was just shredded by Justin Forsett. After that, he'll get Seattle's lackluster defense. The playoff schedule of Tennessee, Houston and Arizona looks pretty tasty for a man of his talent as well.

Oh, and then there's this: in Jackson's career, he has always performed best in December. He's averaging 97.9 rushing yards per game in that month. He doesn't average more than 79.5 yards a game in any other month. He's scored 19 touchdowns in 20 December games, compared to 25 scores in 56 September through November games. An added bonus is that this year the Rams are improving as the season progresses, since they are in rebuilding mode. He's gonna end up in the top five scorers for running backs and be an elite choice next year on draft day. Do 90 percent of you still want Andre Johnson instead? I know I'm happy with the trade.

o. Let's hope you didn't write Tom Brady off after Weeks 2-5, when he was merely serviceable. He now has four straight games of more than 300 yards passing with 13 touchdowns in that time frame. What Brady did Sunday night (375 passing yards, three touchdowns) was no small feat, either. The Colts came into the game allowing just 195 passing yards per game and had allowed only four touchdown passes all season (and they'd faced Matt Schaub and Kurt Warner). They only allowed six touchdown passes in all of 2008. You just don't pass on them like Brady did. He's going to end up as the top fantasy passer this season -- not Aaron Rodgers, not Peyton Manning and not Drew Brees. Tom Brady will finish at the top and it won't even be close. Remember, the game result is irrelevant in fantasy football and it's not Brady's fault his coach made a terrible decision that cost them the game.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Full Speed Ahead for the Cardinals originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Wrap: Brett's Boy

Matt Snyder — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Riser of the Week: With the help of Brett Favre's arm, Sidney Rice is becoming a star in the NFL. Favre's affinity for Rice isn't really difficult to figure, either. At 6-foot-4 and blessed with incredible athleticism, Rice is the rare breed of receiver that can play as both a deep threat and possession receiver, which has made him Favre's favorite target. With a 7-catch, 201-yard effort Sunday, Rice now has compiled 27 catches and 553 yards in the past four games. He still needs to score more touchdowns -- he only has two this season -- but he's gathering enough yardage to make up for it in the meantime. The Vikings' remaining schedule isn't especially tough, either, so don't even think about benching Rice.

Faller of the Week: Pierre Thomas appeared to be working into a groove. After a lackluster performance against the Dolphins, Thomas came through with back-to-back solid games. Considering the Saints got to match up against a terrible Rams defense Sunday, everyone was poised for Thomas to come through with a huge game. Instead, Thomas accrued just 42 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches and failed to score. Meanwhile, Reggie Bush starred, showing his rushing prowess outside the tackles. Should the Saints decide to leave Mike Bell as their battering ram and use Bush on the perimeter, it could conceivably render Thomas useless in fantasy. Realistically, though, the Saints backfield will simply continue to be a headache for any Thomas or Bell fantasy owners.

Other Shifts in Value

Knowshon Moreno - Nearly had the first 100-yard rushing game of his promising young career. Better news than the 97 yards, though, is the fact that he got 18 carries to Correll Buckhalter's two. Looks like Denver is settling on their guy.

Ladell Betts - We knew he was a good spot play against a Broncos team on short rest who coughed up a lot of yardage to Rashard Mendenhall last week. Still, he's not going to be the starter when Clinton Portis returns. Sell him now if you can.

Lee Evans - Two more touchdowns Sunday -- giving him four scores in the last three games. The Bills face the Jags next week, who can be beaten through the air by a second receiver, so he's a good bet to score again. Of course, it is Lee "Fickle" Evans.

Titans D/ST - We left them for dead before the bye week. Since then? 16, 25 and 22 points. They do face three straight high-powered offenses (Texans, Cardinals, Colts), but they are still worth owning in most formats.

Donnie Avery - Facing a banged-up New Orleans secondary, Avery slipped through for two scores. The Rams' offense did appear drastically improved, so Avery's worth a look against an upcoming shoddy pass defense schedule.

Cedric Benson - The injury isn't serious, but we told you last week in Reality Check that his workload is too high. Some guys can make it through a whole season on a 400-carry pace and some can't. This injury could be a slight bump in the road or a harbinger of an injury-laden second half.

Ben Roethlisberger Mike Wallace - The Steelers line was brutalized by the Cincinnati pass rush, with countless passes being batted down at the line. Roethlisberger couldn't connect on his deep balls either, which hurt Wallace's value. They'll be back to form against Kansas City next week, but this one was rough.

Mike Sims-Walker - How does his value increase after only grabbing three catches for 49 yards? Because he scored a touchdown. Randy Moss, Marques Colston and Andre Johnson had been shut down by the Jets this season. By managing double-digit points, MSW has cemented himself as an every-week starter, no matter the opposition.

Jerricho Cotchery - The touchdown was just his second of the season, but he's still getting himself back into game mode following the hamstring injury. Sunday was a good sign that he's working closer to WR2 form.

Calvin Johnson - Not necessarily "Megatron"-esque numbers, but it was nice to see Johnson put up a good line (eight catches for 84 yards). Get ready for a big game against the Browns next week.

Kellen Winslow - Talented tight end plus rookie quarterback equals lots of looks. Josh Freeman will be in love with Winslow as his safety valve all season.

Ricky Williams - Not only did Ricky go for over 100 yards, but Ronnie Brown fell injured. Brown will probably be OK long-term, but the Dolphins play again Thursday against the poor run defense of the Carolina Panthers. If Williams is still available in your league, go get him now.

Jonathan Stewart - I guess, judging by the trend, you have to sit him next week. He was great in Weeks 6, 8 and 10 and bad in Weeks 7 and 9.

Roddy White - Seven catches and 98 yards say his knee is just fine. The Giants' banged up secondary won't be able to deal with him next week -- especially if Michael Turner is out and the Falcons are forced to go to the air attack.

Michael Bush - Justin Fargas had been playing really well and Darren McFadden was returning from injury. Naturally, Bush gets the most carries (14) and turns them into 119 yards.

Jamaal Charles - So we get to hear about Kolby Smith being great for a week and Todd Haley comes out and gives Charles twice as many carries. It's about time Charles got a full workload to show would he could do. He came through with 103 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Hopefully he showed enough that Haley will trust him moving forward. Don't think about using Charles next week against the Steelers, but he should be owned as a spot-play based upon matchups from time to time.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Did I get into a time machine before watching this game? Guess what? The Chargers face Denver (been shredded by Mendenhall and Betts in consecutive weeks), Kansas City (sucks) and Cleveland (sucks even worse) in the next three weeks. Looks like someone is trying to resurrect himself in fantasy conversations.

Brian Westbrook - Had to leave with another concussion. You start to worry about someone missing the rest of the season when they've suffered two head injuries in a month.

Cowboys Offense - Um, what the hell was that, guys? Even Tony Romo's late touchdown pass to Roy Williams couldn't salvage a brutal afternoon in Green Bay. Miles Austin owners everywhere are a bit peeved.

Greg Jennings - One of the biggest busts -- in terms of draft-day value -- of 2009.

Nate Burleson - Eight different Seahawks caught passes. Five of them had at least three catches. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 315 yards. Yet, somehow, Burleson was held to an empty stat line. This has to be a tough one to swallow for Burleson owners.

Beanie Wells - I've been on the Beanie train all season, so it was rather satisfying to see his effort (16 carries, 85 yards, 2 touchdowns).

Fantasy Football Wrap: Brett's Boy originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Chris Johnson Will Supplant MJD, AP

Matt Snyder — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

When peering ahead to the fantasy football draft of 2010, it's easy to envision getting the top pick and taking Adrian Peterson without a second thought. And if you had one, it would probably be Maurice Jones-Drew. After these past two weeks, though, I'm fully behind considering Chris Johnson the top fantasy football player heading into next season. In fact, I'll say it right now: Johnson will end the season with the most fantasy points among running backs and be the consensus No. 1 player on the board for 2010. Unbelievably, it seems to involve the presence of Vince Young.

Sure, the best game of Johnson's career came in Week 2 with Kerry Collins at the helm, but Johnson was fickle in the first half. Since the bye week, when Young was inserted as quarterback, the Titans have played two games and Johnson has been on top of his game. He's carried the ball 49 times for 363 yards (a disgusting 7.4 per carry) and four touchdowns.

The Titans seemed to have refocused during the bye week, and they will lean heavily on Johnson as Young acclimates himself back into the offense. We already knew Johnson was a home run threat every time he touched the ball, but he's developing power and steadily growing into a heady running back. Oh, and one more thing ...

The Titans' fantasy football schedule from here on out with the run defense rank in parentheses (which is entering Week 9): vs. Buffalo (32), at Houston (20), vs. Arizona (8, but they won't be able to stop him), at Indy (17), vs. St. Louis (28), vs. Miami (6), and vs. San Diego (27).

With the first pick in the 2010 fantasy football draft, I select Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans.

Yeah, that definitely feels right.

Other Reality Checks

o. It's officially much more worthwhile to spot-play defenses than it is to just use the same one every week, with the possible exception of the Saints' juggernaut of a fantasy defense. You can have the Steelers. I'm going with an opponent of the Lions, Chiefs, Redskins, Buccaneers, Browns, Rams or Raiders. That's a lot of teams to choose from, so there should pretty much always be someone available. We'll help guide you each week, but it can't hurt to start looking ahead on your own, as you may have to grab teams one week in advance -- considering many already do this. The latest example was the Seattle Seahawks. Look, the Lions' offense has a bright future, assuming everyone grows as they should, but for right now they are a turnover and sack-allowing machine. The Seahawks steamrolled them for 24 fantasy points. In Week 10, take a look at the Dolphins. They should be available in most leagues and take on the Bucs at home. If you want to jump the gun, take a look at the Cardinals (at St. Louis) and Bengals (at Oakland) for Week 11.

o. The Bengals are threatening to run Cedric Benson into the ground. For the second consecutive game, he carried the ball more than 30 times. He leads the league in carries with 198 (second most is Steven Jackson with 165) and is on pace for a whopping 396 trips. No one has carried the ball that many times since Larry Johnson rushed the ball an insane 416 times in 2006 (in fact, 325 led the league in 2007). It may be a coincidence, but Johnson's career has absolutely fallen apart since then. There's a reason no one usually carries the ball more than 350 times in a season. Running backs take a pounding on nearly every run, thus, the damage should be minimized by spelling the main back when you can. If you play in a deep enough league, it wouldn't hurt to take a preemptive flier on either Brian Leonard or Bernard Scott (Scott has much more upside, but the Bengals might trust Leonard more for now). The Bengals have an easy stretch coming up after the Steelers (Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit) and face a run-friendly fantasy playoff schedule (Chargers, Chiefs). Losing Benson would be a big blow for any owner, so it can't hurt to plan ahead -- just in case his body can't take all the punishment.

o. Just when we were ready to write Roy Williams off, he seemed to have Tony Romo's eye for much of Sunday, nabbing five catches for 75 yards. Maybe he whined enough that Romo felt sorry for him -- and that's not a joke, as Romo seemed to often give in to T.O.'s incessant whining in the past. Regardless, Williams, compared to his fellow receivers, appeared to have the stat line of the team's No. 1 receiver. Of course, Miles Austin did grab the pivotal 49-yard TD pass. Austin is absolutely legit -- even with cornerback Asante Samuel checking him most of the night, he found a way to produce. The rest of the Cowboys' schedule sports very few teams who are adept at stopping the pass, so be sure to leave Austin where you already had him -- the starting lineup. As far as Williams, Sunday night was most certainly a good sign. He's worth a roster spot in all formats and is a must-start in deep leagues for now. We'll need to see more before endorsing him as a definitive starter in all leagues and formats. He could have simply been a beneficiary of less attention than the running game, Jason Witten and Austin for one night. Personally, I need to see consistency before trusting him. Gimme Austin any day.

o. It was a really, really small sample, but adding Chris Chambers to the mix seemed to give the Chiefs the shot in the arm they needed. The bye-week preparation probably helped as well, but whatever the reason, the Chiefs threw it well Sunday. Matt Cassel hit on 23-of-39 for 262 yards and two touchdowns -- without an interception. Dwayne Bowe, Lance Long and Chambers all had serviceable games. You can see what coach Todd Haley is trying to do. He wants to emulate the passing attack he built in Arizona. The problem is his personnel isn't near as strong as the Cards', but it's definitely worth watching as this team grows. They play the Raiders next week, so Nnamdi Asomugha will lock down Bowe -- meaning Chambers is worth a look as a desperation play.

o. Speaking of desperation plays, or "Hail Mary" plays if you will, what about matching up a second- or third-string receiver against the Buccaneers? Patrick Crayton, Sinorice Moss, Lee Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Sam Aiken and now James Jones have all gotten loose against them (among others). The Bucs have the Dolphins on the schedule next week and that's a tough one with all the wildcat-ness going on. Still, depending upon league size, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess and Brian Hartline could be worth a shot. After that, Tampa has the Saints (Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore) and Falcons (Michael Jenkins). Just something to think about when trying to gain an edge.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Chris Johnson Will Supplant MJD, AP originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Big Bounce-Back for Kurt Warner

Matt Snyder — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Riser of the Week: After a five-interception game against the Panthers last week, Kurt Warner owners may have been a bit worried, especially since his next task was facing a ball-hawking defense like the Chicago Bears (which, by the way, is more reputation than actuality anymore). Some people were even talking about taking a flier on Matt Leinart in larger leagues. Sunday, Warner put a stop to that, breezing through the Bears' defense like a knife through hot butter. He ended with five touchdown passes and no doubt he's finishing the season as the Cards' starter.

More Fantasy Football: Sunday's Top Performers | Latest NFL Player Notes

Faller of the Week: Since throttling the 49ers four games ago, Matt Ryan has been pretty pedestrian. He's thrown for six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He's also failed to toss for 200 or more yards in three of the four games. Sunday's output (135 measly yards) was especially poor. Further clouding matters for Ryan owners are the injury to Roddy White and the return of Michael Turner as an absolute beast. If Ryan is your fantasy QB1, you may be in big trouble for the stretch run.

Other Shifts in Fantasy Value

Greg Jennings - He's still failing to live up to lofty fantasy expectations, and this time it was against a brutal pass defense. James Jones even got the long TD, not Jennings.

Josh Freeman - Welcome to the party, kid. That's a nice stat line (205 yards, three TDs, 20 yards rushing) for a rookie quarterback.

Ronnie Brown - He did get a touchdown pass to make his line serviceable, but we need to see more than 48 yards on 15 carries to be able to consider him a certain every-week starter.

Laurence Maroney - Got 20 of the Patriots' 24 rushing attempts, scored a touchdown and averaged more than four yards per carry. Dare he actually start living up to his talent level?

Jamaal Charles - One of the darlings of the fantasy world this week, Charles only took six carries (for 36 yards, which is still six yards per carry! Give him the rock, Haley!) in the Chiefs' loss.

Mike Sims-Walker - He's back, baby. M. S. Dubbs.

Ryan Moats - Saw this one coming -- just 38 yards on 16 carries -- though the touchdown made him serviceable.

Joseph Addai - A few weeks ago I tried to tell everyone who would listen how good Addai would be in the upcoming weeks. There are few more reliable anymore. Don't worry about his number of rushing attempts. He's gonna get receiving yards and he's going to score touchdowns.

Andre Caldwell - He'll become the unquestioned third option for Carson Palmer the rest of the way, as Chris Henry deals with a broken forearm. Plus, you gotta like that he caught a touchdown pass Sunday. Also, look at the Bengals' schedule after next week's battle with the Steelers: at Oakland, vs. Cleveland, vs. Detroit in the following three games and then the Chiefs in Week 16 (the fantasy Super Bowl).

Joe Flacco - Less than 200 yards through the air, no touchdowns and two picks. Not a good day at all for the young signal-caller.

Jay Cutler and Greg Olsen - Set aside the debate about Cutler's ability to help the defense (although I will say if you watched that game and thought freaking Peyton Manning could have won it for the Bears you are insane). In fantasy football, all you care about are stats. The Bears defense apparently sucks now, so they'll have to throw all day to keep up. The 369 yards and three touchdowns did wonders for fantasy teams. Olsen was easily the best tight end in Week 9, hauling in all three of those TDs and going for 71 yards.

Clinton Portis - His concussion was a big blow for fantasy owners, who could have expected a solid day -- especially considering Ladell Betts had 15 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown in his absence.

Brandon Pettigrew - Lost in the mess of the turnovers was the corner turned by the Lions' other first-round draft pick. Pettigrew led the Lions with seven catches and 70 yards. He also added his first career touchdown. The rapport with Matthew Stafford is growing, so Pettigrew's worth a look in deep leagues.

Julius Jones - The rushing line doesn't look great (16 carries for 36 yards) but he scored a touchdown. Oh, and those receiving stats ... six catches for 78 yards. This is an illustration of what the Lions' defense can do for your fantasy team.

Robert Meachem - Only Reggie Bush had more catches and Meachem led the team in total yards from scrimmage (5 catches for 98 yards and a score). He was also damn close to a second touchdown late in the game.

Jonathan Stewart - His partner, DeAngelo Williams, ran wild and scored two touchdowns, but Stewart didn't make good on his chances, gaining just 24 yards on 13 carries.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Only 22 yards on 12 carries, can't punch it in from the one, and he just appears slow. I told you last week his relatively good performance was an aberration. I rest my case.

Steve Smith (Giants-type) - Just when people started to waver on him, Smith came back with a touchdown and eight catches (mmm, PPR-leagues).

Jason Hill - From out of nowhere, Hill snared two touchdowns from Alex Smith. He finished with four catches for 50 yards, too. I doubt you'll see it again, as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree will always get more looks, so don't bother diving on Hill just yet.

Vince Young - He didn't throw much, but he was efficient enough to hope he passes more in the upcoming weeks. Plus, he took care of the football and had a rushing touchdown. Good game for V.Y. in real life, and the fantasy goodness will come later.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Big Bounce-Back for Kurt Warner originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Aberration Day for Forte and Tomlinson

Matt Snyder — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson have been albatrosses for most of the season, but both came through to help their fantasy football owners in Week 8. Forte ran for 90 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tomlinson also scored twice and amassed 56 yards on the ground. If we look deeper, though, neither back did anything to make you think they're all of a sudden going to turn it on and start producing on a consistent basis.

More: Sunday's Top Performers | Waiver Wire Wonders | Players to Cut Loose

Forte needed 26 carries to gain 90 yards against a terrible Browns rushing defense. He's been fantasy gold against the Browns and Lions, but pretty much sucked against everyone else. His offensive line could barely even mount a push -- and sometimes they didn't have one at all -- against the Browns' front. Looking at the schedule the rest of the way, I can see him being an elite fantasy option one more time, Week 13 against the Rams. That's it. The rest of the way, he'll be held to less than 10 points, starting with the Cardinals next week. Yes, the Cardinals were shredded by the Panthers run game Sunday, but they were the top run defense in the NFL prior to that. And the Carolina run blocking puts the Chicago blocking to shame.

Tomlinson also had a very low yards-per-carry rate, needing 18 carries to reach 56 yards on the ground. His season-high in yards is 71 and he's played against some pretty sorry run defenses. His next three games come against the Giants, Eagles and Broncos, so he's not going to get any better.

If you own either of these guys, trading them now would be a good idea.

Other Reality Checks

o. Brandon Jacobs received 20 carries to Ahmad Bradshaw's nine, but Bradshaw still scored the touchdown -- a one-yarder, no less. What gives? It appears the Giants are simply going to give Jacobs two-thirds of the carries and keep Bradshaw on the field when they feel like it. Whoever is in when the ball is on the one will get the opportunity to score. You should still want to own Jacobs over Bradshaw moving forward, because he'll get more chances for yardage and TDs.

o. Shonn Greene, the hot pickup last week, didn't get much action in the Jets' loss to the Dolphins. He gained just 18 yards on eight carries. Just as we told you all last week, the Jets would stick with Thomas Jones as their workhorse in close games, and he gained another 102 yards on 27 carries Sunday. The split in carries will remain similar for the time being. This -- like Mohamed Massaquoi and Jeremy Maclin, to give two examples -- is a perfect example of people irrationally falling in love with a player after one good game. Like we've seen with Miles Austin, for example, we need to see a couple games before granting a player must-start status.

o. With Owen Daniels going down, there are extra touches to be had on offense for the Texans in their high-powered passing attack. Look for an increase in looks to Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter. None of the tight ends the Texans will use with Daniels out will be fantasy viable, as they don't have his pass-catching talent. Matt Schaub is just going to throw to whoever can best help them win games and Joel Dreessen and James Casey don't really qualify. Leave them on the wire and grab Walter if someone gave up on him.

o. Kurt Warner got confused and played like Jake Delhomme for this Halloween weekend, throwing five picks against the Panthers at home. Meanwhile, Delhomme threw none. It was like the Bizarro game. For now, you Warner owners have to assume it was just a bad game that can't really be explained. Remember, he threw five interceptions once in 2007, but he bounced back the next week with a big game. He shouldn't have too much trouble carving up the Bears next week in similar fashion. Don't lose the faith just yet, as there's still some gas left in his tank.

o. So Brett Favre beat the Packers twice. Many Brett Favre fans (who claim to be Packers fans) were rooting for the Vikings to win so it would prove some sort of point. Now, they feel vindicated because he's a "winner" and Rodgers isn't. Whatever. Just remember we are playing fantasy football. Rodgers is still an elite option while Favre is a lower-tier QB1 or upper-tier QB2, depending upon league size. The four touchdowns by Favre were great, but that's not going to happen too often. Rodgers will generally always throw for more yardage and he'll get you rushing yards as well. If you own Favre, you might see if Rodgers' owner can't separate real football from fantasy football and make a deal.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Aberration Day for Forte and Tomlinson originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Ominous Day for Steve Slaton Owners

Matt Snyder — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:45:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Faller of the Week: Steve Slaton was most likely a first-round pick, the centerpiece of your fantasy football squad. Obviously, his being benched after just three touches and a lost fumble had a huge impact on your fantasy game this week, but looking to the future, it's much more scary. Ryan Moats was impressive with Slaton out, which does not bode well for Slaton's future. The Texans are in the midst of chasing their first-ever playoff berth, so they aren't going to run someone out there who repeatedly gives the ball away. It's entirely possible Slaton loses his job at some point this season. Thus, he easily takes the biggest hit in fantasy value for this week.

More Fantasy Football: Sunday's Top Performers | Waiver Wire Wonders

Riser of the Week: A week after inexplicably passing far too much, the Panthers remembered how they can win games: on the ground. Last week, they passed nearly twice as much as they used Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. In Week 8, they remembered how to win games. Williams took the ball 158 yards on 23 rushes and Stewart turned 17 carries into 87 yards and a pair of scores. In all, the Panthers ran the ball 74 percent of their offensive plays. Talk about committing to it. Maybe John Fox wants to keep his job after all. Whatever the reason, the Panthers running backs are back where they belong (Williams an RB1 and Stewart an RB3/Flex).

Other Shifts in Fantasy Value

Hakeem Nicks - The touchdown streak wasn't going to last forever.

LeSean McCoy - He's a home run hitter, isn't he? Brian Westbrook will come back, but he's likely to get hurt at some point and the Eagles aren't going to stop using McCoy.

Ronnie Brown - Man, that's a rough outing for someone who has been an RB1, for the most part. I expect that bad outing to be an aberration, though. The Dolphins are one of the few remaining running football teams.

Dustin Keller - Thought to be a TE1 heading into the season, Keller has largely disappointed. Sunday, though, he came through with a season-high eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown.

Michael Crabtree - Well on his way to earning the dollars for which he held out. We've seen steady improvement for the past two games.

Peyton Manning - A sign we're spoiled by him: 347 passing yards and we're complaining because he didn't throw a TD. Seriously, Peyton, c'mon man!

Steven Jackson - Not even remotely surprising. He's an animal who needs help around him.

Maurice Morris / Kevin Smith - Interesting split here. Smith carried the ball 16 times for 45 yards, but he watched Morris rack up 63 yards on just 14 carries. Smith does have a banged up shoulder, so it will be interesting to see how this shakes out in the upcoming weeks.

Miles Austin - This week was just further reinforcement that he's no fluke and is easily Tony Romo's favorite option through the air.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Nate Burleson is clearly the favorite target of Matt Hasselbeck and Housh has posted very pedestrian numbers in five of the Seahawks' seven games.

Bears D/ST - Gotta love facing the Browns at home to make everyone forget about last week's debacle.

The Browns - How can I even say anything nice? They turned it over five times, no receiver had more than two catches and their kicker had an extra point blocked (his only chance all game).

Terrell Owens - Caught a season-high five passes and scored a rushing touchdown, not that it's any solace to his obviously angry fantasy owners.

Kyle Orton - Yes, the Ravens have traditionally had a tough defense, but they were ranked 23rd in pass defense entering the game. Orton needed to muster more than 152 yards and no scores in order to keep our confidence in his fantasy prowess.

Ray Rice - 108 total yards and a touchdown against one of the toughest defenses in the league. He's definitely a must-start on a weekly basis.

Mike Sims-Walker - Ugh. The Titans haven't defended the pass well all season and MSW only goes for nine yards.

Vincent Jackson - Big game for VJax against the Raiders, as he cements his value as a WR1.

Justin Fargas - He just gets the job done: 79 total yards and a touchdown this time. He's a definite flex player when you have bye week or injury issues.

Beanie Wells - So much for his growth. Of course, we didn't really get a fair evaluation period due to the Cardinals getting blown out in the second quarter. They were playing from behind all game, so of course they were going to pass. I still like him to get in the 15-carry range when they play in close games.

Sidney Rice - Brett Favre threw four touchdown passes, but none to Rice. Maybe the man is actually not falling in love with Rice?

Greg Jennings - There's the big game we were looking for from Jennings (8-88-1). We need to see more consistency before saying he's back to being a WR1, but he's definitely got the tools.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Ominous Day for Steve Slaton Owners originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Miles Austin Becoming a Beast

Matt Snyder — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

A few years ago, I used to swear by the draft-day method of avoiding all wide receivers for at least the first three rounds -- and sometimes up to the fifth in leagues with multiple flex positions. The reasoning was simple: the incredibly fickle nature of receivers. Not only is there more turnover from season to season in terms of production than at any other position, there is week-to-week turnover. Maybe it's time to get back to that theory. Witness, Miles Austin has accrued 16 catches for 421 yards and four touchdowns over his last two games. Anquan Boldin, an upper-tier wideout before the season, entered Week 7 with 306 yards and one touchdown for the entire season.

More: Top Performers | Waiver Wire Wonders | Sunday Wrap-Up

This isn't an indictment of Boldin. It's just an illustration (we can find other examples, such as Sidney Rice vs. Greg Jennings or any high school player vs. T.O.) of how the position is so unpredictable.

Anyway, we should move on, because we can't retroactively go back and tell you to avoid multiple wideouts early in the draft.

For Austin's purposes, there's no way you can sit him next week. He's a must-start until he proves otherwise, following two 25-plus point games. The Cowboys like what they've seen from him, and it's entirely possible he's emerging as a star. In addition to being the deep threat, he's become Tony Romo's go-to wideout, since Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton couldn't lock up that role.

Meanwhile, Marion Barber had just 47 yards on 14 carries and Tashard Choice didn't get to run the ball once. Felix Jones ran well, but he only received eight carries. Are we seeing the Cowboys transition back to being a passing team? Time will tell, but for the immediate future, the best fantasy player on America's Team is Miles Austin. Who would've thought that at the beginning of the season?

Other Reality Checks

o. We have to start giving the Houston Texans' run defense some respect. After making like a sieve against Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, respectively, in the first three weeks of the season, everyone -- yes, including us -- assumed the Texans run defense would create fantasy gold for the opposing running back. They followed that up by stifling the rushing offense of the Raiders and then the Cardinals. OK, well, the Raiders suck and the Cardinals don't run the ball too effectively. In the past two games, though, the Texans are showing we can't just write off their run-stuffing ability. First, they held Cedric Benson to 44 yards on 16 carries -- and he showed what he's capable of Sunday against the Bears. This week, they made easy work of Frank Gore (32 yards on 13 carries). Taking into account everything we've seen the past four games, we shouldn't assume a big day against the Texans moving forward, and we might have to consider moving guys down the rankings against them.

o. I just mentioned the Cardinals' ineptitude in terms of running the football this season, and with good reason. Entering Sunday, they were tied for dead last in the NFL -- with, hilariously, LaDainian Tomlinson's Chargers -- averaging 57.6 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Those two teams were also the only two in the NFL to not have a single rushing play go for more than 20 yards. Might there be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Cards with Beanie Wells? Tim Hightower is still going to get the goal line carries, but Wells seems to have taken over duties as the team's top back and he looked strong in doing so. The Giants have one of the better run defenses in football, but Wells managed 67 yards on 14 carries. He also scored his first career touchdown. He has the chance to have a very solid week against Carolina in Week 8, too, so definitely grab him if available on the waiver wire.

o. Good debut as a starter for Michael Crabtree. He caught five passes for 56 yards and you could even argue his presence helped pave the way up the middle of the field for tight end Vernon Davis to have a career day. In fact, it appears the 49ers have the chance to be a pretty solid passing team if Crabtree continues his rapid growth. Definitely grab Crabtree in every league if you still can. I'd even use a waiver claim on Alex Smith (if he's definitely named the starter) as quarterback depth. They'll have to throw all game to keep up with the Colts next week, then they'll host the Titans' horrific pass defense the following week.

o. I cannot possibly fathom any discernible reason that Jake Delhomme attempted 44 passes while DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for just 23 carries. It got them a loss and three Delhomme interceptions. The Panthers did, however, seemingly pander to the complaints of Steve Smith, as he hauled in six catches for 99 yards. Is it possible making him happy at the expense of working their strength was part of the game plan? (yes, that was sarcasm) Regardless of what we saw in Week 7, I still don't believe Smith is even a WR2. I mentioned above how inconsistent wide receivers are, but he's more extreme than your garden-variety fickle pass-catcher. Here's what he's done weekly (catches-yards-touchdowns):

Week 1: 3-21
Week 2: 8-131
Week 3: 4-38
Week 5: 5-65
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 6-99

Also note the Panthers lost during his two good weeks. They won in Weeks 5 and 6. And he hasn't scored a touchdown. This is someone who was ranked among the preseason WR1 tier. You can have him. I'll take Austin and Rice over him in a heartbeat.

o. You know who really has been consistently good -- or even great? Chad Ochocinco. We loved him as a draft-day bargain, and boy has he been one. Check out his weekly breakdown:

Week 1: 5-89
Week 2: 4-91-1
Week 3: 5-54
Week 4: 3-24-2
Week 5: 7-94
Week 6: 5-103
Week 7: 10-118-2

Now, that is a WR1. In fact, the Bengals have been full of great draft-day bargains this year -- a season after being one big colossal disappointment.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Miles Austin Becoming a Beast originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Alex Smith to Vernon Davis?

Matt Snyder — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:15:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Risers of the Week: Alex Smith and Vernon Davis were first-round picks of the 49ers in consecutive seasons (Smith was first overall in 2005, Davis went sixth overall in 2006). They were supposed to be the main building blocks of a highly successful passing attack in the Bay Area for years to come. Instead, each was a colossal bust for several years. Sunday, 49ers fans -- and fantasy owners of Davis -- were treated with a much-belated version of what was originally planned.

Once Smith took over for the struggling Shaun Hill, he threw three touchdown passes, all to his dreadlocked tight end. Davis is clearly a must-start every week at this point. Smith wouldn't be a QB1, but would certainly be worth owning if handed the keys. Wait and see.

Faller of the Week: Pierre Thomas got all the work in the Saints backfield in the first half. In the second half, he lost carries to Mike Bell, who was much more effective. Bell ran 12 times for 80 yards while Thomas carried eight times for 30 yards. Forgetting fantasy stats for a second, it has to mean something to head coach Sean Payton that the Saints began to move the ball effectively once he started using Bell. Also, Drew Brees ran for two touchdowns while Reggie Bush added one of his own. For all the love Thomas received in the preseason, he's only delivered on his potential twice and you could argue Bell has looked like the better back when healthy.

Other Shifts in Value

Randy Moss - So Tom Brady completes 23 passes, but only five to Moss. Brady throws for 308 yards, but only 69 of those were to Moss. Brady heaves three touchdown passes, but none were to Moss. This isn't the work of an elite wideout.

Cadillac Williams - Derrick Ward got more carries and was more effective. The Bucs aren't paying him all that money to play second fiddle all season anyway. Caddy's moving down to option 1b instead of 1a -- and it may eventually just become No. 1 and No. 2.

Colts Defense - Not that it was against a real opponent, but the Colts had three sacks, two takeaways and only allowed six points in the return of former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. Sanders left the game late, but it was not due to an injury. The Colts were just being careful with him. This is a good defense without him and great defense with him.

Steven Jackson - Why both arrows? He had 134 rushing yards against a really solid defense, but his team is just so bad he's still without a touchdown on the entire season. This is such a shame.

Sidney Rice - Do we need to continue to hammer home the fact that he's a weekly play? Um, OK. He's a weekly play.

Ben Roethlisberger - He entered the game as the NFL's leader in passing yards, but was only able to air it out for 175 against a Vikings secondary that was shredded by Joe Flacco last week. This was vintage Ben (circa 2005 or so), where he was a better real quarterback than fantasy. Don't worry, though, we expect the fantasy monster to return -- though he does have a bad stretch here with the bye week followed by a trip to Denver.

Jamaal Charles - Seriously, Todd Haley -- what in God's name are you waiting for? This is ridiculous. Larry Johnson had 16 carries for 49 yards, while Charles gained 33 on just four runs. The difference in yards per carry for the entire season is almost two full yards. Charles is much younger and doesn't have near as much tread on his tires. I just don't get it. Until Haley wakes up, though, Charles doesn't have any value.

LaDainian Tomlinson - So much for his rebirth. If you can't gain more than 71 yards on 23 carries against the Chiefs, you are definitely not an RB2.

Kevin Walter - He's been rendered pretty meaningless, as he only accounted for 29 of the Texans' 336 total yards. Even with Andre Johnson leaving the game injured -- and receiving tons of attention from the Niners prior to injury -- Walter still only caught three passes.

Mohamed Massaquoi - Again, this is why I've never been high on him. You cannot count on anything even resembling consistency from the Browns.

Ryan Grant - I was admittedly pretty down on him after last week's rather pedestrian point output against the Lions, but Sunday he made up for it, gaining 151 total yards and punching one in the end zone.

Carson Palmer - He'd been mostly average this season heading into the game. All he did against the Bears was connect on 20 of 24 passes for 233 yards and five touchdowns.

The Bears - Pathetic. Disgusting. Abysmal.

The Raiders - Even worse.

Shonn Greene and David Clowney -
It was such a laugher the also-rans had a great game during the Jets' throttling of the Raiders. Greene is definitely a great own in keeper leagues, but Thomas Jones still has the job (and had 121 yards and a score of his own). With Leon Washington out for the season with a horrific leg injury, Greene will see work when he spells Jones, so he does retain some value. As for Clowney, he's worth a look in bigger leagues against bad opponents.

Miles Austin - Apparently he wanted everyone to know the ridiculous stat line against the Chiefs wasn't a total fluke. Get him in your lineups as a weekly starter for now.

Matt Ryan - He did throw two touchdowns, but the three turnovers did a good job wiping away much of his production. He also failed to reach 200 yards.

Jonathan Stewart - The Bills' run defense had been brutal, so it looked like Stewart would be a good play even with the presence of DeAngelo Williams ahead of him on the depth chart. Instead, he had just seven carries for 25 yards, as the Panthers looked awful.

Lee Evans - We had already buried Evans, but he's had two consecutive good games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. He's definitely better than Terrell Owens at this point (but is that really saying much?).

Ricky Williams - He's the second back in Miami, but they run the ball so often and so effectively, both players are worth using on a weekly basis in larger leagues. If you went with Ricky on Sunday, he rewarded you with 80 yards and three touchdowns. It was his fifth straight week with at least 55 rushing yards and he now has six total touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Alex Smith to Vernon Davis? originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Ravens a Passing Team, Which Suits Rice

Matt Snyder — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

The Baltimore Ravens are known as a black-and-blue, smash-mouth, old-school, ball control football team. After all, they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at the helm. They had Jamal Lewis as the punishing bruiser for years. Things are a bit different now, to say the least. The Ravens have now attempted 227 passes and 154 runs this season. They have gained more than twice as many yards and first downs through the air. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball in a variety of different ways. Joe Flacco is becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. Do the math: the Ravens are a passing team.

More: Waiver Wire Wonders | Top Performers | Fleaflicker Adds/Drops

The best part about this fact is that it actually helps the fantasy football value of Ray Rice, who is clearly the best running back the Ravens have. The diminutive Rice averages six yards per carry due to how perfectly Cameron picks his spots to run the football. Sunday was a perfect example: Rice carried the ball just 10 times, but gained 77 yards and scored twice. The best part about Rice, however, is his value through the air.

Rice caught 10 passes for 117 yards Sunday. Those are the numbers of a WR1 against the Vikings' tough defense, not a shifty running back. On the season, Rice now has 33 catches for 325 yards -- meaning he's gained 766 yards from scrimmage in six games. That's a lot of points, especially for a guy who lost a load of touchdowns earlier this season to Willis McGahee.

McGahee's out of the picture now. It's the Ray Rice show.

Even on a passing team, they have an RB1. Funny how that works, eh?

Other Reality Checks

o. Hopefully you didn't sell the farm for Braylon Edwards after his electric debut in a Jets uniform. In his second game -- and home debut -- he hauled in just three balls for 40 yards. These past two games do a great job of illustrating what we can expect from Edwards the rest of this season. He's playing for a new team and with a rookie quarterback. In addition to there being an adjustment period, he'll have to deal with fickle quarterbacking as Mark Sanchez encounters growing pains. Don't be surprised to ride a veritable roller coaster with Edwards in fantasy point totals. I expect, at the end of the season, a line graph of his weekly point totals to look like a mountain range.

o. In case Rashard Mendenhall owners were worried Willie Parker was going to get the job back in the Steelers' backfield, we have news for you: it's still Mendy Mania. Mendenhall received 17 carries to Parker's seven. He got the short-yardage carries, including the Steelers' lone rushing touchdown. Another layer to mention here, though, is that the Steelers are clearly a passing team -- like the Ravens, though not to the same extent. They attempted 35 passes in a game which was never really in doubt, compared to 29 carries by running backs. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 417 yards, so the pass was working quite well for them anyway. On the season, the Steelers have thrown 208 passes and their three running backs have carried the ball a combined 144 times. Thus, Mendenhall is a RB2 in larger leagues and Parker is a flex option as a bye-week filler, at best.

o. Speaking of teams known as running teams who are actually passing teams, the Bears can't run the football with Matt Forte. They just can't. The run blocking is awful. The holes are so small and cave so quickly, that the smaller and quicker Garrett Wolfe has had better success with the ball in his hands than Forte has. The longest run of the night was by Jay Cutler. The Bears are finding more success passing for touchdowns in short yardage than getting Forte in the end zone from the one-yard line. There's just no good news for Forte owners and it doesn't appear things will be changing anytime soon, either, because the personnel on the line is the problem. It's definitely time to worry about Forte, and I wouldn't have a problem trading him if you could get back first-round value.

o. I wouldn't get caught up in this "don't trust Bill Belichick with running backs" game. Sure, that has been the case in the past, but this season, he's mostly leaned on one guy. First, it was Fred Taylor. He got hurt. Then, it was Sammy Morris and he fell injured early Sunday (which, by the way, really sucked -- one play and he's out? Fantasy killer). After the Morris injury Sunday, Laurence Maroney carried the ball 16 times. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had seven carries, but let's look deeper. The Patriots undressed the Titans, 59-0, so much of the second half was trash time. Green-Ellis carried the ball four times in the fourth quarter with Maroney out resting. That means the carry ratio when the starters were still in the game was 16-3 in favor of Maroney. If Morris is out versus Tampa Bay next week in London, Maroney will be a fine play. Dare I say an RB2 in large leagues? The Bucs can't stop the run. I would grab Maroney off the waiver wire immediately for the short-term.

o. Steven Jackson is an absolute monster, it's just too bad he's playing for such a bad offense. The good news is that the Rams did start to move the ball a little better Sunday. Jackson didn't have many running lanes, but he still managed 50 yards on 16 carries. He found a way to be productive through the passing attack, though, as he garnered 78 yards on six catches. The 128 total yards would look much nicer if he could find a way to get into the end zone, but I guess we'll have to keep waiting. It will be interesting to see what he does against the Colts next week. You can run on Indy, but the Rams will likely be so far down they'll have to pass. The following week against Detroit, though, and SJax will definitely be worth 20 points. I'd bet on it.

o. The Giants' running back situation did little to sort itself out Sunday. In the running back rankings, I explained that I believed Brandon Jacobs would resume his role as the more valuable fantasy back against good competition, as Ahmad Bradshaw had simply gotten fat against chump teams. Sunday, we still didn't get a very good read as the Giants got blown out of the building and were only able to use the two backs a combined 17 times on the ground. They had similar average-per-carry numbers, which is a good sign for Jacobs owners, but Bradshaw scored the one rushing TD, which is a bad sign. I'm still sticking with Jacobs the rest of the way, but it's only by a slight margin.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Ravens a Passing Team, Which Suits Rice originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 19 Oct 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Waiver Wire Wonders: Take the Last Train To Sidney

Ryan Dembinsky — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 22:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Waiver Wire, Sunday Wrap-Up

Weeding through those unwieldy waiver wires requires a keen eye and a quick trigger. Thus, Waiver Wire Wonders provides a weekly snapshot of players worthy of consideration who should be available on a good portion of league waiver wires.

Not a whole lot to report on the wires, as the bulk of the action came from repeat appearances by players solidifying their values and abating consistency concerns. For the third week in a row, the wide receiver position provided the most compelling action, so check the waivers to see if you can still catch these trains or if you waited too long at the newsstand flipping through the US Weekly and missed them.

More: Sunday's Top Performers | Latest Fleaflicker Adds/Drops

Sidney Rice (WR, Vikings) -- Quickly becoming Brett Favre's favorite receiver on a team that could not get any hotter, Rice officially solidified the fact that he can consistently produce as a fantasy player. In his past four games, Rice put up 56 yards with a touchdown, 70 yards with a touchdown, 61 yards and, Sunday, 176 yards. Rice looks like at least a No. 2 wide receiver going forward.

Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants) -- I'm beginning to feel like a broken record with this guy, but Nicks is the man. Once in a while you just get that feeling on a guy, and Nicks has been that guy for me ever since the preseason. But when we saw him leave Nnamdi Asomugha in the dust on a fly pattern last week, I knew he was special. Sunday, he finally had his coming-out party in a regular-season game, catching five passes for 114 yards and a 37-yard touchdown. Rarely do we see a receiver with this type of big-play potential come along. With Steve Smith and Mario Manningham competing for looks, consistency will likely pose a problem from time to time, but this will not be the last big game we see from Nicks this year. Sunday marks three straight weeks with a touchdown catch.

Chris Brown (RB, Texans) -- Brown definitely goes on the "watch" list as opposed to representing a pick-up opportunity, given that he only gained 45 yards, but there is potential here going forward. The Texans appear to be losing their patience with Steve Slaton as their every-down running back. He carried the ball 19 times for only 43 yards and lost a fumble. Slaton clearly plays a huge role in the passing game -- catching six passes for 102 yards and a touchdown Sunday -- but this could result in a Reggie Bush type of situation circa 2006-2008.

Mohamed Massaquoi (WR, Browns) -- Just as it looked like the popular rookie with the big bust-out game in Week 4 was a fluke, maybe he's not. Massaquoi bounced back after a non-existent Week 5 with five catches for 83 yards, giving new life to his potential for the remainder of the season.

Lance Moore (WR, Saints) -- A lot of owners severed ties with Moore prematurely after he suffered poor numbers due to issues with injuries earlier in the season. Coming off the bye week, Moore looked close to 100 percent and finally tallied some decent stats Sunday for the Saints (who didn't?). Moore caught six passes for a total of 78 yards and a touchdown. He should make a nice addition to any lineup going forward and remains available in about half of all leagues.

Justin Fargas (RB, Raiders) -- In a move bound to occur sooner or later -- as it does seemingly every season -- the Raiders made the move back to Fargas as the workhorse running back. Sunday, he carried the lion's share of the ground game, picking up 87 yards on 23 tries against a solid Eagles defense. The question remains what will happen when Darren McFadden returns, but the Raiders actually won a game. So, the smart money would say the Raiders stick with what finally worked: Fargas.

Laurence Maroney (RB, Patriots) -- In a 59-0 shellacking, it's probably wise to take just about everything with a grain of salt. Still, the ever-frustrating Patriots backfield produced another big one, this time with Maroney as the benefactor. With Sammy Morris leaving injured, Maroney carried the ball 16 times for 123 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown run. Who knows what this really means, since Bill Belichick fooled us once with Fred Taylor already this season. No guarantees with Belichick keeping everyone guessing with this unit on a weekly basis, but Maroney certainly made a good case for himself.

Jermichael Finley (TE, Packers) -- Finley stirred up some waiver wire action two weeks ago and showed owners exactly why Sunday. Finley posted solid tight end numbers, catching five balls for 54 yards. While not earth-shattering, Finley continues to show up for the offense. He and quarterback Aaron Rodgers seem to have a nice chemistry, so look for this role to grow as the season rolls on, especially on those cold Lambeau days.

Waiver Wire Wonders: Take the Last Train To Sidney originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 18 Oct 2009 22:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: The Resurrection of Elite Tom Brady

Matt Snyder — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:20:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Sunday's Top Riser: We've seen this Tom Brady before, and it was in 2007 when he threw for almost 5,000 yards and totaled 50 touchdown passes. So far in 2009, he'd been good, but not great. And we drafted Brady for great in fantasy football. Enter the Tennessee Titans and the worst pass defense in football. Brady, despite playing in a quasi-blizzard, completed 29-of-34 passes for 380 yards and six touchdowns. That's all he'll need to get that swagger back. Next week against Tampa Bay, he's going to put on a show across the pond in London's Wembley Stadium, and he's a bonafide top-three fantasy QB again -- you can take that to the bank.

More: Waiver Wire Wonders | Top Performers | Fleaflicker Adds/Drops

Sunday's Top Faller: The Eagles. I mean, really? The Raiders bottled you up? No touchdowns, Donovan McNabb completed less than 50 percent of his passes, Jeremy Maclin went back to being irrelevant and Brian Westbrook only received six carries. No receiver reached 100 yards (though, to be fair, both DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and Brian Westbrook had decent-to-good receiving numbers) and LeSean McCoy was worthless. Everything stemmed from the offensive line being pushed around by Richard Seymour and company. Still, what a brutal showing for a team who appeared to be firing on all cylinders after last week.

Other Shifts in Value
Dwayne Bowe - After two bad games, Bowe is clearly back on track and becoming a favorite of Matt Cassel as the KC offense slowly improves (which means they've gone from putrid to below-average).

Santana Moss - His lackluster performance is a bi-product of the poor quarterbacking in Washington. The problem? That's not going to change as we move forward.

Cadillac Williams - Wasn't a huge game, but 77 yards and a touchdown is good for where he was being used. The Panthers run defense is very fantasy friendly ...

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart - ... as is their own running game. Those worried about DeAngelo (30 carries, 152 yards, 2 touchdowns) can now breathe a sigh of relief and Stewart (17-110-1) came through as a solid flex play.

Jamal Lewis - We saw this coming, although I actually thought he'd get more carries. On the podcast, I said last week was an aberration and predicted 20 carries for 41 yards this week. He ended with 11 for 21. He sucks. Move on.

Hines Ward - Dude was so on fire he even poached a catch from Santonio Holmes -- and promptly took it to the house. Big day for "The Dalai Lama of Football."

Marques Colston and Lance Moore - The Saints spread it around, so there's a tendency for Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson to infringe on Colston's potential stat-line, but Sunday he got his. Also, Moore had done nothing this season until coming through with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. He is again ownable in fantasy football.

Eli Manning - I've long thought he was incredibly overrated in fantasy due to his last name, but he was getting it done this season. I had been biting my tongue and biding my time. He'd been great against the Redskins, Cowboys, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. That's not exactly the '85 Bears, '00 Ravens and '70s Steelers of defenses. Sunday, he faced a strong Saints' defense and completed less than 50 percent of his passes for only 178 yards, one touchdown and turned it over twice.

Sidney Rice - It's not just the 176 yards, it's how Rice looks in the Minnesota offense. Not only is he the obvious deep threat for Brett Favre, but he's a tall red-zone target as well. There is big-time potential here for Rice to move himself into WR2 range. He should not be left on any waiver wire after this week.

Willis McGahee - The Ravens gained 448 yards in total offense. McGahee accounted for three. Three! Meanwhile, Ray Rice shredded the mighty Vikings for 194 total and two rushing touchdowns. The sun has set on McGahee's fantasy value for 2009.

Mike Sims-Walker - I told you guys not to get down on our boy "Em Ess Dubbs." I can't be angry at him for taking the Seattle booty-call. He bounced back with nine catches for 120 yards. Are you still mad at him?

Donnie Avery - He scored a touchdown, but that was his only catch of the game against a sub-par Jaguars' pass defense. Five players had more catches, including fellow wideouts Keenan Burton and Danny Amendola (who?). UPDATE: Actually, Avery left the game with a hip injury after the catch. Thus, we can't actually complain, as he may have been on his way to a big game. Still, the injury means his value takes a hit.

Ryan Grant - Sure, he gained 90 yards, but it took 24 carries and he failed to score a touchdown. That's not the work of a quality RB2 against a team who allows five yards per carry and one rushing touchdown per game -- especially not when he was running out the clock the entire second half. Boo him. And hiss if that's your thing.

All Lions receivers - I'm sure Drew Stanton is a nice guy and a hard worker, but he decimates the value of Calvin Johnson, Dennis Northcutt and Bryant Johnson. Brandon Pettigrew is not even ownable with him. With Daunte Culpepper leaving injured and Matthew Stafford's season in jeopardy (Stephania Bell of ESPN is reporting he will miss the season if Dr. James Andrews determines surgery is needed), this is not a good situation.

Texans passing attack - The Bengals' defense had been tough all season. All Matt Schaub did was carve them up for 392 yards and four touchdowns. Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson went for triple digits, Owen Daniels scored twice and Jacoby Jones caught a touchdown. The only problem was that Kevin Walter disappeared? What's up with that? (By the way, do not ever even think about sitting Schaub. He's an elite quarterback in fantasy -- up there with Manning, Brady, Brees. Yes, he really is.)

Cedric Benson - As I conditionally mentioned in the running back rankings, we can now start believing the Texans' run defense has improved. Don't give up on Benson just yet.

Zach Miller - Even without the stupendous 86-yard touchdown catch-and-run, he would have had five catches for 53 yards. Good all around game for Miller.

Thomas Jones - The more explosiveness and consistency we see from Jones, the more we have to believe he's not giving up carries at all in 2009. He's a fringe RB1 most weeks, depending upon matchups.

Bills defense - Not sure if you've ever noticed, but I grab at least one player from each team for this feature. At this point, I don't have anything to add about the Bills offense. I called them worthless last week and Sean Lalley covered them in Sink or Swim. Trent Edwards left the game in the first half Sunday. So, instead, I'll give some credit to their defense. They hassled Mark Sanchez for five picks and a sack. Even in allowing so many rushing yards, they kept the score reasonable, too.

Steve Breaston - Guess who is quietly outplaying Anquan Boldin on a per-game basis?

Matt Hasselbeck - So much for him playing well at home. That was an out-and-out disaster. What a dreadful performance.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: The Resurrection of Elite Tom Brady originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:20:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Joseph Addai Still Colts' Guy

Matt Snyder — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Ever since the Colts selected Donald Brown in the first round of last April's draft, fantasy players have been anxiously awaiting him to take over the No. 1 RB role for the Colts' high-powered offense. Well, they'll be waiting a while, because -- in terms of touches, goal-line carries and usage in the passing game -- Joseph Addai is still clearly the Colts' top option at running back.

Addai has 88 touches to Brown's 51. Addai has scored four times; Brown twice. Addai has 26 catches compared to just seven for Brown. This is not a changing of the guard. This is a starting running back being spelled by a backup.

It's true Addai didn't run the football well Sunday night, but consider the opponent. The Titans have had a strong rushing defense and pathetic pass defense all season. Thus, the Colts took what the Titans gave them and threw the ball most of the time. Addai's 10-catch performance should only further cement our confidence that he's the top option out of the backfield.

The Colts will head into a bye week, but when they return they'll get the Rams. The Colts won't need to throw a ton to throttle the pathetic "Lambs." You're gonna see a lot of running from both Addai and Brown. Expect them both to get their fair share of work. Just remember, if Brown ends up with better numbers, that doesn't mean he's taking anything away. When the Colts play reasonable opposition, they'll lean more on their veteran back.

Other Reality Checks

Apparently, Jamal Lewis is still above Jerome Harrison the Browns' depth chart. Color us shocked. Not only did we have Lewis buried, we had already planted sod over the grave and left the cemetery. So, what to make of him taking 31 carries for 117 yards while Harrison only received eight carries? Unfortunately, it means Eric Mangini is going to stick with Lewis as his workhorse when healthy. Harrison falls back down to handcuff status, which is a major stomach-punch for many of us. Of course, bench every Brown next week against the Steelers anyway. They mustered just two field goals against the Bills, so the Steelers might find a way to cause a negative score.

Jamaal Charles is clearly the best back in Kansas City. The problem? He's still not getting the workload he deserves. Larry Johnson came into the game averaging an embarrassing 2.6 yards per carry, and he's apparently not going to be content until it dips down below 2.0, because he turned 21 carries into 37 yards against the Cowboys. Not only that, he's now touched the ball 101 times and failed to score a touchdown. Meanwhile, Charles caught five passes for 54 yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. It's about time he got a shot, but we still aren't seeing him get it. For now, Charles should be owned in all deeper leagues in anticipation of eventually finding a role in a KC offense that is starting to move the ball via the air. If they want a balanced attack, they'll forgo any LJ carries in favor of Charles. Oh, and this should go without saying, but don't start Johnson in any league.

It's only a matter of time before Vince Young is starting over Kerry Collins. We saw Young enter the game late against the Colts, but that doesn't mean there was a change in the depth chart. Yet. The Titans are cooked. Yes, they haven't even played a third of the season, but they aren't rebounding from 0-5. It's time to give the keys to Young and see if he can resemble a starting NFL quarterback the rest of the way. He did look just as spry as ever on a six-yard run late in the game. He didn't connect on any of this three pass attempts, but the Colts' pass defense is pretty stout. I'd take a flier right now on Young in multi-QB leagues (I play in one league where you can start three, depending on how you use your flex position, and I'd definitely grab him now in that one) in anticipation of a move being made. My guess is they'll use Collins in New England and then make the change after their bye week, but being proactive instead of reactive can win you championships. VY against Jacksonville at home on November 1 could be a pretty decent spot-play.

Sammy Morris is clearly the Patriots' No. 1 running back. We suspected this is what would happen, and it did. The Patriots ran the football 27 times and Morris took 17 of the carries. He also caught two passes for 39 yards. The Patriots will continue to use several running backs, but with Fred Taylor injured, Morris the only runner Bill Belichick really trusts to handle more than an occasional carry. The Broncos have had a pretty solid run defense this season (ranked fifth entering the game), so Morris' 68 yards on 17 attempts (4.0 average per) is a good sign. He'll have a tough test against Tennessee but will get enough looks to be as productive as he was Sunday.

Kyle Orton is a very solid fantasy option at this point. He's not a QB1 in most formats, but he's definitely worth using as a bye-week/injury replacement in every format. Knowshon Moreno continues to develop, Brandon Marshall is a man-child and Eddie Royal finally, Sunday, became as involved in the short passing game as we thought he would before the season began. The Broncos play sound defense and move the chains on offense. They have so much confidence now, too, that a swagger is developing. Expect good numbers from Orton (and Royal, Marshall and Knowshon) next Monday night against San Diego's lackluster defense. If your QB has a bye and Orton is available on the wire, get him now.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Joseph Addai Still Colts' Guy originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Sad Bills Becoming Worthless in Fantasy

Matt Snyder — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:15:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Faller of the Week: All Buffalo Bills. Three points against the Cleveland Browns? The same Browns who ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense, 31st in scoring defense, 22nd in passing defense and 31st in run defense? Abandon ship. Everyone except Terrell Owens and the two running backs (Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson) can be dropped. No one can safely be started in any league at this point. This is just a mess. Lee Evans and Trent Edwards are owned in far too many leagues. Drop the dead weight.

More Fantasy Football: Waiver Wire Wonders | Latest Player Notes

Riser of the Week: Miles Austin had a bit of fun against the Swiss Chiefs. How does 10 catches for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns sound? With Roy Williams sidelined, Austin shined. We've seen his potential in short little bursts throughout his career, but never a sustained outing even approaching this bad boy. You can't count on this consistently, but Austin's worth a look in deep leagues. He's a bye-week replacement-type who could shake free for a long score at any given moment.

Other Shifts in Value

DeSean Jackson - Just when it appeared he was becoming a reliable WR2 (if not more), he lays an egg while watching Jeremy Maclin go ballistic.

Kellen Winslow - Sure, they were playing catch-up, but they do that every week. The 9-catch, 102-yard, 2-TD outing was a great sign that Josh Johnson is starting to trust his tight end.

Ahmad Bradshaw - He's feasted upon the Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders in the past three weeks. Can it continue against actual competition? Being so explosive, it would be hard to bet on him staying quiet most weeks.

Zach Miller - Good to see one of our preseason faves having a decent game. You still can't count on him weekly, though.

Matt Cassel - He finally started clicking with Dwayne Bowe and ended with a solid line. There's a definite correlation. We'll see if he keeps it up.

Willie Parker - His job is being stolen by Rashard Mendenhall, and there's nothing he can do about it.

Clinton Portis - He's a sell-high right now. The Redskins' line is brutal and Portis was the beneficiary of touchdowns on two different short-field drives set up by takeaways. He still only averaged three yards a carry against the league's worst (heading into Week 5) run defense.

DeAngelo Williams - Lost a fumble and gained only 40 yards on 18 carries without hitting pay-dirt.

Mohamed Massaquoi - We suspected last week was a bit fluky, but not to this extent. Of course, when your quarterback completes just two passes (TWO!) all game, it's hard to do much as a receiver.

Cedric Benson - Guess I have to eat some crow here. We said Benson was a sell-high two weeks ago and we appeared to be correct after last week in Cleveland. Instead, Benson sliced through the stout Ravens defense for 120 yards on 27 carries and a rushing touchdown.

Joe Flacco - Of course, in the same segment of our podcast, we said Flacco was a sell-high. He had a rough outing against Cincy and the schedule doesn't get any easier (at MIN, vs. DEN, at CIN) the next few weeks.

Roddy White - This is why you don't give up on your stars based upon a few less-than-stellar outings. White wasn't pulling an Eddie Royal and totally disappearing, he just wasn't providing WR1 numbers. Yet. Eight catches, 210 yards and two touchdowns say you don't think about sitting him again.

49ers Defense - What a difference a week makes. I guess the Atlanta Falcons are a little better than the Rams, eh?

Matt Hasselbeck - Four touchdown passes in his triumphant return to the lineup.

Mike Sims-Walker - It's a good time to trade for him. His owner will likely be livid after taking a goose egg at the last minute after the Jaguars suspended MSW one game for breaking a team rule. That won't happen next week against the hapless Rams, as the Jags' pass offense looked out of sync without him.

Randy Moss - Tom Brady completed 19 passes. Only one was to Moss. Buy low here, as the Pats have the Titans and Bucs the next two weeks. That's a receiver's paradise.

Eddie Royal - He has a pulse! PPR-leaguers who held onto him in hopes of a resurgence were handsomely rewarded with 10 catches. His 90 yards weren't too shabby either. This is what we expected from Royal -- and Kyle Orton throwing short routes to him -- in the preseason.

Beanie Wells - We needed more than that to be convinced of his value for 2009. The Texans' run defense is bad and Wells gained just 24 yards on seven carries. Plus, Tim Hightower is going to get all the goal-line carries. It's time to give up on him in shallow-to-medium-sized leagues.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Sad Bills Becoming Worthless in Fantasy originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: One Steve Smith Is a Legitimate No. 1 WR

Matt Snyder — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Question: Who has been the best and most consistent wide receiver this year in fantasy football? Answer: Steve Smith ... of the New York Giants, not of the Carolina Panthers. We used to make jokes about how much it would suck to accidentally click on the name of the "wrong" Steve Smith in an online fantasy draft, but no one would laugh now. The Giants' version is a better and much more reliable fantasy version than the Panthers' incarnation. Our Smith is definitely a WR1 in all formats moving forward, as this doesn't look to be fluky in any way.

Through four games, Smith has emerged as Eli Manning's favorite target, and the Giants are throwing more than anyone expected. Smith has 34 catches for 411 yards and four touchdowns in four games. His lowest catch output for a week was six, his lowest yardage output was 63, and he's scored in three of the Giants' four games. He's also gone for more than 20 fantasy points twice. He's the perfect combination of consistency and explosiveness. At this point, he's doing a Wes Welker, circa 2007, impersonation. All his fantasy owners -- especially point-per-reception leaguers -- can do is smile when hearing that, because we know what stat line Welker ended up with.

Right now, Smith takes a backseat to no one, especially not the maddeningly inconsistent dude who plays for the Panthers and has the same name.

Also of note in the Giants' receiving corps, Mario Manningham looks like his Cowboys game was sort of a fluke, and Hakeem Nicks is getting on the field more and more. Expect the Giants to continue a rotation similar to the one the Bears use with Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox -- with the rookie having the higher ceiling in both cases.

Other Reality Checks

o. Speaking of players becoming a WR1 before our very eyes, I'm really close to proclaiming Mike Sims-Walker one. After an eerily silent Week 1, "MSW" is emerging as Jacksonville's top receiving option in a sneaky-hot passing attack. In the past three games, Sims-Walker has 19 catches for 378 yards and three touchdowns. And, like Smith, he's doing it consistently, going for six, six and seven catches in the past three weeks. He's easily David Garrard's favorite target at this point -- ahead of the aging Torry Holt -- and has a really soft schedule in the upcoming weeks. The Jags have the Seahawks, Rams, Titans (again -- that's who he shredded Sunday for 91 yards and two touchdowns) and Chiefs in their next four games. MSW should be owned in 100 percent of fantasy leagues and, at least for the time being, should also be in every starting lineup.

o. Rashard Mendenhall is better than Willie Parker, and it ain't close. Between the power, burst and ability to get into the end zone, he showed Sunday night that he has the ability to eventually be a Pro Bowl-caliber running back in this league. It will be interesting to see how the Steelers proceed once Parker is healthy, but I'd most definitely rather own Mendy. If you do, hold on to him for dear life. He looks like one of those late-round picks who can win you a fantasy championship.

o. LaDainian Tomlinson is done. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it until no one argues with me. He does have the Chiefs and Raiders on the docket in Weeks 7 and 8, but I'm just not seeing any reason to buy into him. He didn't look great against the Raiders the first time, and he's in danger of falling injured again before then anyway.

o. Drew Brees has had two consecutive bad games, but now is no time to sound the panic alarm (are there actually panic alarms, or did that sound really stupid? Or is it "press the panic button?" Still, I don't think there are panic buttons, either). The consensus preseason No. 1 quarterback has gone two straight games without reaching 200 yards or throwing a single touchdown pass. This is just unheard of from Brees -- who threw for almost 700 yards and nine touchdowns in the first two weeks. Don't expect this to continue. We won't be seeing what he did in Week 1 again this year, in all likelihood, but his Week 2 (311 yards, three TDs) is coming multiple times this year. Do not trade him and never, ever leave him on your bench. He does face a tough home test against the Giants after his bye week, but, after that, he'll go nuts for a five-game stretch against Miami, Atlanta, Carolina, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. If there is someone in your league who owns Brees and is stupid enough to trade him, do it in a heartbeat.

o. Braylon Edwards put up a goose egg again, but this time it wasn't a product of being in a stagnant offense. Quite the contrary, as the Browns offense looked pretty solid against a Cincy defense who had been playing well. The secondary, especially cover corner Leon Hall, has been stout this year. But poor Braylon was outshined by several of his teammates. We already mentioned how good Jerome Harrison looked in taking over in the backfield. Derek Anderson was serviceable, and he apparently loves rookie wideout Mohamed Massaquoi. The Georgia product caught eight passes for 148 yards and is definitely worth a look in all dynasty leagues immediately -- if he's not already snatched up by an astute owner with foresight. Anderson completed 26 passes to seven different players, so Braylon's empty stat line is even more worrisome. It's time to start looking elsewhere at WR. You just can't afford to keep running him out there in your starting lineup.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: One Steve Smith Is a Legitimate No. 1 WR originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Time to Drop All Raiders

Matt Snyder — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:55:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Faller of the Week: Everyone on the Oakland Raiders. The Houston Texans entered the game as one of the league's worst defenses. They were the worst in the NFL against the run. Sunday, the Raiders gained just 165 yards and only a single first down on the ground against those same Texans. I'm done with Darren McFadden. Michael Bush and Justin Fargas shouldn't be considered viable fantasy contributors in any format, and I'd even give up on Zach Miller (which isn't his fault, but he's not going to put up stats for this embarrassingly inept offense). This team is dead to me, and they should be to you, too.

Riser of the Week: We liked Jerome Harrison this week and, after watching the game Sunday, we like him even more. The Browns have lost James Davis for the season and Jamal Lewis' corpse doesn't pose much of a threat to steal carries -- at least as long as the Browns want to try and win games. Harrison had 34 touches Sunday (29 carries, five catches) and compiled 152 total yards. Also, the fact that the Browns offense wasn't stagnant with Derek Anderson at the helm bodes well for Harrison's chances to continue putting up meaningful stats.

Other Shifts in Value

Jason Campbell - At least he pulled himself out of the red in the second half, but the four turnovers destroyed his day.

Antonio Bryant - Got into the end zone for the first time in 2009 during Josh Johnson's first start.

Ray Rice - Of course, Willis McGahee still scored a touchdown, but Rice had 16 touches (to McGahee's six) and 152 total yards. Looks like he's taking over, slowly but surely.

Steve Smith - Looks to be a legitimate WR1 by now, especially in PPR leagues.

Sean Ryan - Huh? Who is that? The answer: the tight end who caught five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown Sunday for Kansas City. Hey, they'll be throwing a lot this year, because they'll always be losing. They needed someone to step up and fill the void left by Tony Gonzalez.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White - Why do the Titans suck now? Not a very strong day for Johnson against the Jags' mediocre defense and White is just flat-out unownable right now in any format.

David Garrard - 323 yards and three touchdown passes? Those are Peyton Manning numbers.

Austin Collie - Pierre Garcon isn't the only one having fun with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined. The rookie from BYU caught six passes for 65 yards and a touchdown.

Julius Jones - This is the second straight week the Colts' run defense has been a brick wall. Maybe they are turning the corner? It's also possible that the both the Cardinals' and Seahawks' rushing attacks aren't very good.

Steve Slaton - Love seeing the two touchdowns, love seeing him involved in the passing game, but still worried about his yards per carry (he gained just 65 yards on 21 carries, and that includes 32 yards on one run).

The Raiders - I'm so frustrated I'm listing them again. How can they pass this off as an NFL offense? What a joke.

Cedric Benson - Had the Bengals been able to kick a simple extra point, he'd have completely bombed. He managed to salvage a few points in overtime, but you'd still like to see more output than 86 yards an no scores against the hapless Browns. He's beginning his descent.

Matthew Stafford - Assuming his knee is OK -- and I think it will be -- he's made great strides these past two weeks. He threw for 296 yards and a touchdown, also rushing for 20 yards. He also made great use of Megatron, so we're going to say he continues to grow.

Mark Sanchez - So much for the "Sanchise." Four turnovers and no touchdowns in New Orleans. He provided the Saints defense with two touchdowns and generally looked out of sorts for most of the game. With a rookie, though, growing pains are to be expected.

Marques Colston - Only two catches for 33 yards, but he was locked up for most of the game by Darrelle Revis, so it wasn't entirely surprising.

Bills offense - Were the first two weeks just a tease? Trent Edwards, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans are really going to be risky plays from here on out if things continue on this path.

Dolphins running game - Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams need to pick up some of the slack with Chad Henne taking over the offense, and Sunday they came through in a big way. The two combined for 200 yards and three scores on the ground.

Brandon Marshall - Just looking at the stats won't do justice to how phenomenal a play he made on his late touchdown. He's had two good games in a row, too.

Tony Romo - On the other hand, Romo hasn't been a quality fantasy quarterback since Week 1 -- when he bullied the pathetic Bucs.

And, finally, a big time shout out to the 49ers D/ST (). Wow. Four sacks, four takeaways, three defensive touchdowns and a shutout? C'mon, get outta here with that. That's like a video game. It was good for 42 points in standard Fleaflicker scoring. The most for a D/ST unit since 2002 happened when the Seahawks went absolutely bonkers in Week 13 of 2005 (they put up a disgusting 50!). The Falcons hung 46 on the Panthers in Week 12 of 2002 and the Ravens put up 43 against the Steelers in Week 12 of 2006. Next is what we saw from the Niners today, so we witnessed a historic fantasy outing. Thanks to R.J. White for the research and props to FanHouse's Ryan Dembinsky for using a waiver claim on the Niners' D/ST this week in our league.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: Time to Drop All Raiders originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Monday Reality Check: DeSean Jackson Soars for Eagles

Matt Snyder — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:15:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Heading into the season, we liked DeSean Jackson's chances to move into low-end WR2 range. After three weeks -- two of which were with a backup quarterback -- we're ready to say he's easily a WR2, with the chance to move into WR1 range. In the past two games, Jackson has caught 10 passes for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Adding in a punt return touchdown in Week 1, Jackson has scored in all three Eagles games this season.

Now, I'm sure there are those who will point to Jackson's output with Kevin Kolb at the helm and try to persuade you the return of Donovan McNabb will hurt Jackson's value. If you hear that argument from someone who owns Jackson in one of your leagues, please trade for the young stud.

Jackson grew greatly in his rookie season with McNabb and the veteran quarterback knows the offense too well to ignore the playmaking abilities of Jackson. Do not expect the second-year wideout from Cal to miss a beat when McNabb returns. In fact, it's good to know Jackson can put up numbers with Kolb in the game -- not to mention the emergence of Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy means Jackson isn't getting double-teamed anytime soon.

Leave Jackson on your bench this week, as the Eagles have a bye, but plan on him playing every single week the rest of the way this season. He's a star in the making.

Other Reality Checks

o. Contrary to what Lovie Smith wants you to believe, the Bears are a passing team. Last week, I said Matt Forte's time was coming. For the time being, I was wrong (it happens from time to time ... not often, but it does happen). Forte simply had no running room against a Seahawks defense that was gashed last week by Frank Gore for over 200 yards. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler has thrown for 760 yards and six touchdown passes this season. He's improved each game, as have his receivers -- who collectively played really well Sunday afternoon. The ball is also being spread around. At this point, Devin Hester is a WR2, Greg Olsen is a TE1 and Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox should be bench depth in most fantasy leagues. Have you seen the upcoming schedule? Their next six games are against (pass defense rank in parentheses): Detroit (29), Atlanta (23), Cincinnati (19), Cleveland (16, but they are worse than that), Arizona (30) and San Francisco (24). Prepare for Air Bear, and Cutler is a QB1 with that slate.

o. Pierre Garcon is clearly Peyton Manning's third option through the air -- after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, obviously -- and Sunday night he proved an able deep threat. He's definitely worth an add in all leagues while Anthony Gonzalez nurses an injured knee.

o. The Cardinals' rushing attack should be embarrassed. The Colts have been shredded via the ground game early this season, and the Cardinals mounted just 24 yards on 12 carries. Tim Hightower is more valuable at this point due to his presence in the passing game, but eventually, they'll have to look at establishing a real run game with Beanie Wells between the tackles. I'd stash him if you have roster space.

o. Joe Flacco appears to be emerging as a QB1 in front of our eyes. Of course, he got fat against the hapless Chiefs and Browns. In the other game, he threw for just 190 yards against the Chargers. In the next three weeks, we'll see what he has against the Patriots, Bengals and Vikings before anointing him anything special. Until then, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

o. Look past the embarrassing team loss and check out the numbers of Jason Campbell and Santana Moss. Campbell hit Moss 10 times for 178 yards and a touchdown, while throwing for 340 and two touchdowns total. Campbell also ran for half the yards Clinton Portis did on a single carry (compared to 12 for Portis). I've seen some people saying Campbell only racked up the yardage because the 'Skins were playing from behind and facing a prevent defense. OK, well, that was against the Lions. As things stand, it would appear the Redskins will be playing from behind quite often. And, for what it's worth, the Redskins' next three opponents currently have an 0-8 record. Campbell's a quality bye-week replacement while Moss should be back in lineups across the board.

o. Steve Slaton averaged 6.3 yards per carry and ran the ball well. The problem is that he was only handed the ball 12 times. This is due to the fact that the Texans were involved in their second consecutive shootout and needed to throw the football in order to stay in the game. The problem isn't going to go away, either, considering the Jags hardly have a high-octane offense. Give him one more week -- against the Raiders at home -- and then I'd consider dealing him (if he doesn't have a big game).

o. Finally, there aren't many players you can use against the Jets' mighty defense. We've seen them shut down Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and now somewhat limit Chris Johnson -- who is one of the most talented players in the league. Johnson did have 105 total yards, but that's a testament to how good he is. This underlines the point that the only players you should be using against the Jets are guys you should never, ever sit. That means when they visit the Saints this coming week, you need to play Drew Brees and be wary of pretty much everyone else (though I'd find it difficult to sit Pierre Thomas).

Monday Reality Check: DeSean Jackson Soars for Eagles originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Waiver Wire Wonders: Week 3

Ryan Dembinsky — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Waiver Wire, Sunday Wrap-Up

Weeding through those unwieldy waiver wires requires a keen eye and a quick trigger. Thus, Waiver Wire Wonders provides a weekly snapshot of players worthy of consideration who should be available on a good portion of league waiver wires.

It never ceases to amaze me that every week there is so much material for our Waiver Wire Wonders column. It just goes to show how fast things change in the NFL. A star player gets injured after one carry; a longtime underachiever finally earns his stripes; and the worst franchise in NFL history wins a game on a solid performance by the No. 2 wide receiver. Nothing stays put in the NFL for long, so there's no time for slacking off. Week 3 offers up a whole new round of hot pickups.

Fred Taylor (RB, Patriots) - The muddled mess of quality running backs in New England finally gave way and provided a breakout game. Fred Taylor, the experienced veteran and only legitimate star player amongst Faulk, Green-Ellis, Maroney and Morris, looks to have finally solidified the No. 1 spot. Taylor got an eye-opening 21 carries, which translated to 105 yards and a touchdown. Currently, Taylor remains available in 52 percent of Fleaflicker leagues. Hence, he looks like the must-add waiver wire player this week.

Glen Coffee (RB, 49ers) - The Cinderella story of the preseason and widespread sleeper favorite, Glen Coffee, got a major value uptick as 49er juggernaut Frank Gore left the game with an ankle injury after just one carry. Coming off one of the biggest games of his career last week, it looked like Gore totally sealed the carries in San Francisco, but Coffee caught a break. The severity of Gore's ankle sprain appears to be of the high variety, and in Gore's absence Coffee carried the ball 25 times. He tallied a modest 54 yards on the ground, but if Gore remains out for any additional games, Coffee makes a terrific add.

Vernon Davis (TE, 49ers) - After quietly sneaking his way onto rosters in roughly a third of fantasy leagues through the first couple weeks, Vernon Davis just became the hottest tight end in the league. Against the Vikings and in Gore's absence, Davis became the tertiary beneficiary and caught seven passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns in one of the biggest games in the league.

Jerome Harrison (RB, Browns) - We all knew that sooner or later Jamal Lewis would fall out from the starting running back spot, but it happened sooner than expected when Lewis was declared inactive for Week 3 with a hamstring injury. While many fantasy prognosticators anointed James Davis as the heir apparent in the preseason, Harrison carried the heavy load with 16 carries and 52 yards to Davis' five carries for 10 yards. Much like Glen Coffee above, Harrison did not post gleaming numbers, but he's a smart pickup for the future should Jamal Lewis continue to struggle with the injury. Frankly, the Browns must be about ready to cut the lifeline on Lewis and his perpetual mediocrity, so Harrison should see increasing touches no matter what happens with Lewis and the hamstring injury.

Bryant Johnson (WR, Lions) - Hey, we had to get somebody from the Lions on the list today. They won a game! Bryant Johnson finally provided a decent No. 2 option for Matt Stafford, which could be a key development for the Lions' offense. With Kevin Smith playing well and Calvin Johnson battling constant double-coverage, Bryant Johnson could quietly post more big games to the tune of Sunday's 73 yards and a touchdown effort. Obviously, Johnson will not provide lock-down consistency on a weekly basis, but when injuries and bye weeks start jabbing thorns in your side, he may be the waiver-wire plug you need to fill a leak.

LeSean McCoy (RB, Eagles) - Is this the year the injuries finally get the best of Brian Westbrook? After approximately 876 consecutive games listed as Questionable on the injury report, Westbrook did not play today due to an ankle injury. Meanwhile, backup LeSean McCoy filled in like an old veteran running the ball twenty times for 80 yards and a touchdown and caught one pass for an extra nine yards. With Westbrook's age and injuries become increasingly worrisome, McCoy looks like a smart pickup.

Mike Sims-Walker (WR, Jaguars) - We discussed Mike Sims-Walker's value boost in depth last week as a result of the Jags losing Troy Williamson for the remainder of the season. Well, Sims-Walker again proved himself as a worthy top target for the offense as he led Jacksonville with six catches and 81 yards. If Sims-Walker still remains on the waiver wire, he makes a solid No. 3 WR or Flex play for the rest of the season, particularly in weeks with good matchups (i.e., where the Jags will be playing from way behind).

Ricky Williams (RB, Dolphins) - Ronnie Brown remains the key engine in the Miami machine, but the backfield is definitely a tandem effort with the other half being Ricky Williams. He continues to make plays and show he earned his contract extension -- particularly while working in the explosive wildcat sets. Williams demonstrated versatility as he ran for 55 yards and a touchdown (averaging 6.9 yards per carry), while catching four passes for another 29 yards. Ricky Williams does not quite merit an immediate add, save for deep leagues, but keep a close eye on him, as his output is on an upward trend.

Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh) - One of the bigger stunners in Sunday's NFL action came from rookie wide receiver Mike Wallace. Pittsburgh surprised many by selecting Wallace with a third-round pick as experts generally ranked him around the 30th best receiver in the draft. Apparently, the Steelers saw something special in Wallace. He caught seven passes for 102 yards against the Bengals, including a big one for 51 yards, so maybe they were right. Let's wait and see if Wallace has any staying power before making a roster move, but seven catches from a relatively unknown rookie sounds reminiscent of Marques Colston from his rookie season a few years back.

Kevin Kolb (QB, Eagles) - Like Mike Sims-Walker above, Kolb also made the Waiver Wire Wonders list last week. We simply wanted to highlight him again to illustrate the combined two weeks: 327 yards and three touchdowns this week and 391 yards and two touchdowns last week. We're not saying it's time to sell the farm, but maybe a few pumpkins. With a bye week coming, wait to see how McNabb progresses over the next week and a half, but if it looks like he'll miss more time, Kolb can clearly put up numbers.

Waiver Wire Wonders: Week 3 originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: A Pierre Thomas Sighting

Matt Snyder — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:05:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, NFL Value Machine

Sunday Evening Wrap checks out players who increased or decreased their value during the Sunday afternoon games.

Riser of the Week: Pierre Thomas was the apple of many a fantasy owner's eye heading into the season, but he was hampered by a knee injury for the first two weeks. Sunday, he reintroduced himself to the fantasy football world -- so let's hope you held onto him if you drafted him. Thomas ran through the Buffalo defense for 126 yards on just 14 carries, scoring two touchdowns. The Saints do have two tough matchups coming (Jets and Giants), but, long-term, Pierre is going to be a solid RB2.

More Fantasy: Waiver Wire Wonders | Latest Player Notes | Gore Injured

Faller of the Week: After Week 1, Clinton Portis owners were likely licking their chops. Sure, he didn't do much against the Giants, but they have a stout defense. The next two Redskins' opponents were the Rams and Lions. Surely, the old CP26 would rack up the points. Two weeks, 31 carries and 121 yards later, we're left without a touchdown and many failed attempts inside the five-yard line. The thing is, the Redskins still have a pretty easy schedule for the next several weeks (Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs). If you own Portis, you probably have to stick with him, but he hasn't exactly inspired a ton of confidence.

Other Shifts in Value:

Julius Jones - 136 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against the Bears. Good bounce-back after a horrifying Week 2.

Mark Sanchez - "The Sanchise" is doing quite the job in New York. That rushing touchdown was nails, and he threw for a pair as well.

Kenny Britt - Tied for the team lead in catches, which illustrates the Titans' plan on getting their first-round pick plenty involved this season.

Donald Driver - For the second week in a row, Driver has outscored teammate -- and much higher-valued -- Greg Jennings.

Kyle Boller-to-Daniel Fells - Marc Bulger goes down and the Boller-to-Fells connection singlehandedly doubles the previous output of the Rams' offense. Talk about the bizarro world.

Vernon Davis - We've been waiting on him to break out for his entire career, and I believe it's finally happened. Yes, after his 7-catch, 96-yard, 2-touchdown performance, I believe Davis will be a quality fantasy option this season.

Kevin Walter - Guess he was excited to get back on the field, huh?

Matthew Stafford - The kid showed why the Lions took him as the top overall selection in last April's draft, throwing for 241 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over. Furthermore, he had a 21-yard run where he made several defenders miss and cut back when he easily could have elected to slide. There's potential for rushing touchdowns in the future here, which, for QBs, is just gravy.

Derrick Mason - Unfortunately, he doesn't get to play the Browns every week.

Brandon Marshall - Don't bury him just yet, as the punky wideout found the end zone while leading the Broncos in catches and yards.

Andre Caldwell - Who is going to emerge opposite Chad Ochocinco as Carson Palmer's No. 2 receiver -- Laveranues Coles or Chris Henry? How about Caldwell, who had six catches for 52 yards and the game-winning touchdown in Cincy.

Willie Parker - 129 total yards and a touchdown -- just when everyone wanted to give up on him.

Matt Forte - You'd think he can turn it around against the Lions next week. Of course, the Seahawks gave up over 200 yards rushing to Frank Gore last week and Forte only mounted 66 on 21 carries. The run-blocking for the Bears has been atrocious, which is a huge concern here moving forward.

Kevin Kolb - He's thrown for over 700 yards the past two weeks ... and his value takes a hit? The Eagles have a bye in Week 4, and you'd figure Donovan McNabb is ready to come back for Week 5. When he does, he'll get the Bucs and Raiders and find DeSean Jackson as a now-bona fide WR1 (which means McNabb owners are salivating right now).

Larry Johnson - So much for him bouncing back. He now has 54 carries for 136 yards and no touchdowns in three games.

Roddy White - Only 24 yards from your WR1? Ouch.

Visanthe Shiancoe - When Brett Favre completes 24 passes for 301 yards, you'd expect his talented tight end to rack up a bit more than two catches for 22 yards.

Terrell Owens - For the first time since I was a freshman in college (which doesn't matter, just throwing it out there), he didn't record a stat. Can't say I'm disappointed. I refuse to own this clown on any fantasy team.

Darren Sproles - He can't run up the middle and was a non-factor in the passing attack. Plus, I'm guessing LaDainian Tomlinson returns for the primetime game in Pittsburgh next week.

Anyone who plays for the Raiders, Buccaneers or Browns - I can't figure out which team is the most dreadful, but it doesn't matter. I'm officially scared to play anyone from any of these teams -- even Braylon Edwards, Darren McFadden or Zach Miller. This group of three teams is the holy trinity of suck when it comes to fantasy football.

Fantasy Football Sunday Wrap: A Pierre Thomas Sighting originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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