Fantasy Football Fanhouse

Fantasy Football Coin Flip: Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford?

Ryan Dembinsky — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Draft Advice

Neither of these two rookies, Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford, are likely burning up the draft board given their unproven positions and untested nerves in the regular season. But sorting through the rookie noise at quarterback can prove worthwhile as we all know how it feels to be digging through the waiver-wire trash on game days. Making the right choice on your rookie flier in the late rounds can end up saving the day on multiple occasions once those injuries and bye weeks come flying at you.

The jury is still out on whether either of these guys will have much fantasy impact at this point, but so far they look like the two most likely candidates to get heavy repetitions, so let's get the debate rolling...

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Dembinsky: It'd be awfully easy to point at Mark Sanchez as a dead man walking from a fantasy perspective this week. Sanchez played like a scatterbrained youth in Monday night's defeat -- a loss that is largely attributed to Sanchez's awfulness -- going just 3-of-8 for 43 yards with one TD and one interception.

Let's keep things in perspective though. As compared to Matt Stafford, Sanchez has a far superior supporting cast in terms of a running game, an offensive line, and receiver depth. Yeah I know, Stafford has that one special receiver in Megatron, who single-handedly makes a case for Stafford, but Sanchez should have a much easier time learning his offense while standing vertically, as opposed to cleaning grass out of his helmet after every play.

As for Sanchez's struggles in the preseason, how much weight do you want to place on a preseason game against the Ravens, one of the toughest defenses in the league? Personally, I see a much faster coming of age from Sanchez than Stafford. Plus, Sanchez will likely get the start in Week 1, which makes a big difference in development. All told, I think Stafford has better individual tools and should eventually be the better quarterback in the league, but Sanchez has a better shot at blossoming as a player with some waiver-wire potential down the road in the 2009-2010 season.

Sean Lalley: First off, let's be realistic. Neither one of these guys is going to win you a fantasy title this season. However, both guys are sure-bet keepers in the long run. And you never know, maybe they surprise us all at some point this season. I'm not banking too much on that happening and neither should you, but if my hands are tied and I had to go with one or the other ... I'm going with Stafford.

Let me point out the obvious reason why and yup, it's Calvin Johnson. The Jets simply have nothing even remotely close on their side. Really, we expect Mark Sanchez as a rookie QB to make something out of the ever-inconsistent Jerricho Cotchery? I'm not even sure that Sanchez's best WR option even matches Bryant Johnson for the Lions. OK, maybe that's a stretch, but Calvin Johnson alone makes quarterbacks look better than they are. He's a pretty big safety valve if you ask me.

We all know that Sanchez is going to get the nod right off the bat, which can be good and bad. Chances are Stafford will have to wait a few games until Daunte Culpepper goes up in flames. So, advantage Sanchez for getting knocked around and initiated to the NFL for several weeks, while Stafford can sit, observe and learn the ropes. It's up to you how you like your QB of the future to be schooled. I prefer the watch-and-learn approach -- it has a resounding success rate.

Lastly, we fail to even mention that while the Jets have a solid running game, so do the Lions. Kevin Smith is no slouch and if you don't think he's gonna help take some heat off whomever plays QB and Megatron, think again. Add it all up and if you ask me, Stafford just has more positives (in the long run) on his side -- a dominant WR, a solid running back and a potential star in Brandon Pettigrew at TE. This debate will rage on with advantage Sanchez for now, but just keep a closer eye on Stafford in keeper leagues. Thank me later.

Fantasy Football Coin Flip: Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford? originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Building a Keeper League Team

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:40:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Draft Advice

So, you want to try your hand at building a dynasty? Who doesn't? Being able to keep the fantasy football players that you draft from year to year seems like a novel idea. You just need to be aware of a few things.

Building a fantasy football team in a Dynasty League is very similar to a regular league. You're going to try to put together the best group of guys to help you win a championship. The main extra ingredient to keep in mind is that you'd like your team to be as young as possible and still have a shot to win. That being said, you're not going to forego all older players. If Peyton Manning is on the board and he's the best available player, you should consider it. The decision making process kicks in when you're trying to decide between two similar players. You're most likely going to take youth over experience in that situation.

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A few other helpful hints would be to select rookies with high upside, and do it earlier then you would in a normal draft. You'll also want to take a look at quarterback situations. When you're looking for bench material, taking a backup quarterback who has an aging veteran in front of him on the depth chart can be a smart move.

For the purposes of this list we're limiting the age of players to 25. No player over 25 can make this Dynasty League list, and we'd prefer younger. Let's take a look at the top ten Dynasty League players.

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings - No matter if it's a single-year league or a keeper league, Peterson is the top choice. He rushed for over 75 yards in all but one game in 2008 and he was healthy all season long; a first. He's got a great combination of size and speed that gives him the ability to alter a game at a moment's notice. He's also only 24 years old so he's going to be gaining yards and scoring touchdowns for many seasons to come.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - MJD is finally going to step out of the shadows of another feature back. He's no longer going to split time and that should mean more yards and scoring opportunities for the 24-year-old back. He's also up against a very favorable schedule for running backs. The sky is the limit for Jones-Drew.

3. Matt Forte, Bears - The 23-year-old Forte started every game as a rookie last season and carried the ball 316 times. He's going to get another chance to see those same kinds of numbers this season and the Bears have brought in some help. The addition of Jay Cutler will take some of the focus off of Forte, possibly giving his some extra lanes that weren't available in 2008.

4. Chris Johnson, Titans - Johnson was another rookie back last season who exploded onto the scene to gain 1,228 yards. He split time with LenDale White so the 23-year-olds' carries were down at 251. The "Smash and Dash" approach will still be in effect this season, but you shouldn't worry about Johnson's carries. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season. He makes the most of every opportunity.

5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - It just seems like Fitzgerald has been in the NFL forever. In fact, the 25-year-old receiver has only been around since 2004. He didn't push past the 100 reception mark in 2008, but he did up his receiving yards to 1,431. He averages 14.9 yards per reception and he has a host of great receiver around to make doubling Fitzgerald a no-no.

6. Calvin Johnson, Lions - This guy runs a 4.35 40-yard dash, has amazing hands and can jump to the moon. He averaged 17.1 yards per reception last season where he caught 78 balls for 1,331 yards and scored 12 times. He tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions and at 23 years old will probably do so for many more seasons.

7. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - It's not easy following a legend and certain first-ballot Hall of Famer. Aaron Rodgers might disagree. Rodgers threw for 4.134 yards in his first season as the Packers starting quarterback and at 25 years old plays like he's much older. Remember that he sat behind Brett Favre which looks like it was a great learning experience.

8. Matt Ryan, Falcons - Ryan did the impossible last season. He made an entire city and fan base forget about Michael Vick. Ryan also threw for 3,440 yards as he's proving to learn very quickly, should see more opportunities to throw the ball in 2009. He has a new weapon in Tony Gonzalez and the 23-year-old is gaining experience every single day.

9. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - The 22-year-old rusher scored ten touchdowns in 2008; all as a complimentary back to DeAngelo Williams. The Panthers should enter the 2009 season with the same philosphy of dual running backs. But, it's not like Stewart is never going to see game action. The Panthers run the ball frequently and Stewart should see double digit carried week in and week out.

10. Joe Flacco, Ravens - Flacco is the second quarterback on this list to lead his team to the playoffs as a rookie in 2008. While Flacco's numbers aren't quite as impressive as Ryan's, remember that the Ravens offense is run first. Flacco has a strong arm, pin-point accuracy and isn't afraid to shoot for the end zone. It may take him a bit longer to really build on those rookie numbers, but that day will come.

Other Notables

Pierre Thomas, Saints - Thomas hit fantasy radar everywhere when he scored both on the run and receiving in consecutive games in early December of last year. He's going to get a chance to do more in 2009.

Ted Ginn, Jr., Dolphins - Ginn will probably tread statistical water until he gets a stronger-armed quarterback in Miami to throw deep routes. When that happens his numbers will explode.

Chad Henne, Dolphins - Miami already has that strong arm to throw to Ginn. Henne will have to wait until Chad Pennington gives him an opening. But, that day will come soon.

Matthew Stafford, Lions - Stafford has already been called smart beyond his years. He's one of those huge upside rookies we spoke about earlier.

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts - Hands don't get too much softer than this. Gonzalez can catch. And now that Marvin Harrison is gone, he'll get more opportunities to prove it.

Felix Jones, Cowboys - Jones did everything asked of him and did it well before injuries wreaked havoc on his season. He's still not the go-to guy in Dallas, but he'll get ample opportunity to shine.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - He's already taking reps with the first team on offense in training camp. He may split time to start the season, but the way he runs and catches the ball should land him the starting role sometime in 2009.

John Carlson, Seahawks - Carlson had a five touchdown rookie performance last season and shows signs of doing more. He's a great blocker and receiver and the only thing holding him back may be the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Greg Olsen, Bears - Olson has good hands, can get open at will and gets targeted in the red zone frequently. Those ingredients combine for a recipe of success. Jay Cutler coming to town is icing on the cake.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals - Breaston caught 77 balls for 1,006 yards in 2008; all that from a guy drafted for special teams help. He may not explode further in 2009, but when the Cardinals do decide they can't keep both Anquan Bolden and Larry Fitzgerald, Breaston will slide in nicely with whoever is left.

Dynasty Diaries: Building a Keeper League Team originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:40:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Resurrection of Alex Smith?

Doug Bernstein — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries

Remember the 2005 first overall pick for the San Francisco 49ers, Alex Smith? The bust? The franchise killer? The relic? Yeah, that guy just turned 25 last month. It sounds crazy, but Alex Smith is younger than Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards, Matt Leinart and Vince Young. He has only one full year on Matt Ryan, nine months on Joe Flacco, five months on Brady Quinn and most shockingly, is less than thirteen months older than the Giants' fifth-round selection in the 2009 draft, Rhett Bomar. Considering his age, could this year mark the resurrection of Alex Smith's career?

Fantasy owners for all intents and purposes have given up on the former University of Utah star and with good reason. He was a non-entity in 2008, had the second-lowest passer rating among quarterbacks who qualified in 2007, has failed to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in any single season, and has thrown 19 career touchdowns to 31 interceptions. If he was your franchise quarterback, heck even if he was your son and just the QB of the Pop Warner team you coached, you probably would have already cut ties with him. Smith though still remains a 49er (in large part due to the massive pay cut he agreed to earlier this offseason). While most consider Shaun Hill the favorite to secure the starting job, perhaps the Niners have reason to be optimistic about their former No. 1 pick.

Smith would not be the first passer to struggle prior to the age of 25 then turn it around after celebrating his quarter-century birthday. The two most famous examples are Troy Aikman and Terry Bradshaw, who both posted TD-INT ratios similar to Smith in the first half of their twenties. There is also a sense that Smith's willingness to restructure his contract reflects a maturity and leadership that has previously been absent. I know I will be reaching on this point, but Smith has at least shown the ability to be a solid quarterback. Over the first six weeks of 2006, he had 8 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a QB rating of 86.4. If Smith is named the starter, the supporting cast of Frank Gore, Isaac Bruce, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan and Vernon Davis should make his job significantly easier than it has ever been in the past.

Early reports out of San Francisco are that Smith has been rusty and not overly impressive. I am not here to definitively say that Alex Smith will be an All-Pro this or any season. I acknowledge that his career trajectory is far more likely to be that of Rick Mirer than Troy Aikman. The point is that he is only 25 years old and I caution against giving up on a player at such a young age that once had so much promise.

Now race to write a comment about Ryan Leaf.

The Resurrection of Alex Smith? originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Beanie Wells Lands in a Superb Fantasy Situation With the Arizona Cardinals

Will Brinson — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:50:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL New Studs, NFL Draft Analysis

The Arizona Cardinals, for years, have been "fantasy death." But recently, a resuscitation in the desert allowed the Cardinals to suddenly become valuable to fantasy owners. They drafted Beanie Wells of Ohio State in the first round on Saturday, and that's only more good news for fantasy owners.

See, Wells was supposed to land in a situation that would involve him sharing carries. Instead, word on the street is that Edgerrin James will be released and, if that happens, Wells will find himself in a fantastic situation.

Injuries are a concern with Wells, but here's the good news: because the Cardinals pass so much, there's tons of room to run and he doesn't have to be a total workhorse. For further example, look at what Tim Hightower did last year, emerging as a fantasy stud.

So, presuming James is released, go ahead and pencil in Wells as "that guy" who you want to draft in the sixth to seventh round in a Matt Forte kind of way. He's got the talent, and if he stays healthy, he's a perfect RB3/Flex option that will be relatively cheap.

Beanie Wells Lands in a Superb Fantasy Situation With the Arizona Cardinals originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:50:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Michael Crabtree Falls to the Niners, Fantasy Spin

Will Brinson — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL New Studs, NFL Draft Analysis

Michael Crabtree was supposed to be a top five pick. He was supposed to be drafted by the Seattle Seahawks and slot right into the west coast offense that they run. Then the crazy first round of this year's NFL Draft happened and Crabtree was in a freefall.

He landed with the San Francisco 49ers and for fantasy owners, that's freaking horrible news (like finding out you posed for the picture to the right).

Crabtree seemed like the type of guy that could make a legitimately impactful, um, impact in 2009. He's not the fastest guy, he's not the biggest guy, but he might just have been the most talented guy in the entire draft.

So to see him land in a situation where he has to catch balls from either Alex Smith, Shaun Hill or Damon Huard is a major, major disappointment. Of course, as Ryan mentioned, if they can actually land someone to get Crabtree the ball, then it's a different story.

But at this point, it seems destined that Crabtree will perform really well in situations that don't matter, people will hype him up, he'll get drafted in the sixth or seventh round and then he'll disappoint greatly because he doesn't have a competent quarterback. Early reaction: avoid.

Michael Crabtree Falls to the Niners, Fantasy Spin originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Knowshon Moreno to the Broncos, the Fantasy Spin

Will Brinson — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 18:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL New Studs, NFL Draft Analysis

The Broncos drafting Knowshon Moreno was undoubtedly a shock, considering it was with their first, and 12th overall, pick in the NFL Draft. And it's kind of a shame for fantasy players.

That's because Moreno has a ton of talent, even if he's not a lock-down feature back. But he has nice hands, he has enough speed, and he can break off runs. Which would have made him a perfect fit for the Eagles or the Chargers (although the fantasy boost would have been delayed on both). Instead, he's headed to Denver to work under Josh McDaniels' scheme and alongside Kyle Orton.

Perhaps McDaniels, who used to work for a pretty good Patriots team, might have folks salivating over the prospect of turning Moreno into a dominating running back. One problem: who was the awesome back for those Patriots teams? Exactly -- players were good, not great, and certainly not dominant.

And now Moreno is dealing with Orton. It's an odd pick in real life and one you want to avoid in fantasy, unless you can get him at a steep discount.

Knowshon Moreno to the Broncos, the Fantasy Spin originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 18:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Darrius Heyward-Bey Taken by the Raiders, the Fantasy Spin

Will Brinson — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:15:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL New Studs, NFL Draft Analysis

You know when Herm Edwards loves your pick, you've done something wrong. And he was trying to justify the Raiders selecting Darrius Heyward-Bey, which means if Al Davis can hear him, he should probably realize he's in trouble.

From a fantasy standpoint, Heyward-Bey is actually kind of interesting. He's fast but we're not sure if he can actually run routes. And JaMarcus Russell isn't going to be spectacular just yet. BUT ...

... and, yes, it's a large but ... you'll be able get Heyward-Bey whenever you want in fantasy drafts, and he has some upside because he's so fast and Russell has such a cannon.

He's certainly not worth more than a very late round pick on this Raiders team, and he's certainly a horrible selection by Oakland with Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin still on the board, but, hey: UPSIDE, BABY, UPSIDE!

Darrius Heyward-Bey Taken by the Raiders, the Fantasy Spin originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Mark Sanchez to the Jets via Cleveland; Fantasy Football Spin

Will Brinson — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL New Studs, NFL Draft Analysis

Mark Sanchez was the wild card heading into this year's draft. He had a limited number of starts at USC and no one knew where he would get drafted, but it still seemed likely that he could be a nice QB2 because his upside in the right system grew exponentially as the draft approached.

If Seattle pulled the trigger on Sanchez, though, his fantasy value would be sunk because Matt Hasselbeck isn't going anywhere right away. Then the Jets made a trade with the Browns and were suddenly in the five spot, causing high-fives and smiles all around in the Sanchez household in California.

And there could be smiles for fantasy owners too -- the word on the street is that people are falling in love with his accuracy, football intelligence and his footwork. And he should start for the Jets from Day 1. Because of that, he has immediate fantasy value -- Jerricho Cotchery and Thomas Jones are nice weapons to have -- as a later round pick.

For keeper leagues, Sanchez, in my opinion, is going to be worth a pretty high pick. There are more talented offensive players -- Michael Crabtree comes to mind -- but Sanchez is going to end up being the most valuable quarterback in this draft, at least from a fantasy standpoint.

Mark Sanchez to the Jets via Cleveland; Fantasy Football Spin originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Lions Select Matt Stafford, Fantasy Owners Don't Care

Ryan Dembinsky — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, NFL Position Rankings, NFL Draft Analysis

With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions surprised nobody by inking a deal with the former Georgia Bulldog quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Long before the draft began at 4 pm this afternoon, Detroit and Stafford agreed on Friday night to a six-year deal worth $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed.

While most young quarterbacks might be tempted to pull the Elway and start singing, "I gotta get out of this place, if it's the last thing I ever do," Stafford, on the contrary, seems genuinely excited to be a Lion and up to the challenge of turning this team around under his leadership. This, combined with a pretty savvy contract by the Lions that puts a lot of that $78 million in incentives based on playing time, looks like a recipe for success. So, the question remains, does Matt Stafford have fantasy value for the upcoming season in Detroit as a rookie?

The reality from a fantasy perspective on Stafford is that he becomes a valid late round flier at best, but probably more of a waiver wire pickup around about week four. I highly doubt he will come in and start every snap, but rather take his time learning the playbook behind the newly lean Daunte Culpepper. Stafford's contract in year one makes some provisions for him to play a minimum of 35% of the snaps, so I would expect him to start within the first 5 or 6 games, but keep in mind his supporting cast. Culpepper will be the tackling dummy for week one, while Stafford eases his way into the league.

Also, don't get swept up into thinking that Matt Stafford to Calvin Johnson is an automatic touchdown machine. Calvin Johnson will be fine and he will continue his ascent to one of the league's elite wide receivers, but the real issue for Stafford is the Lions still have a poor offensive line and no running game whatsoever. The Gosder Cherilus pick in the first round last season certainly improved the offensive line last season, but this is the area to watch to gauge Stafford's worth. If the Lions do not fortify these areas throughout the draft and free agency by focusing on the line and running game, expect Stafford to spend a lot of time on his back and make a lot of bad decisions as he'll be under a lot of pressure.

In the long run, Stafford should be a good fit for the Lions. Offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, likes throwing in the red zone and is known to air it out for the long ball, so once this team gets its nuts and bolts back in order, Stafford should be a solid fantasy quarterback in the league. Believe it or not, the Lions just selected a first round pick that will actually pan out. So, to sum it up Stafford makes a decent long-shot pick for dynasty keeper leagues, but other than that, just keep one eye on his progress and the other eye on the waiver wire.

Lions Select Matt Stafford, Fantasy Owners Don't Care originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Sat, 25 Apr 2009 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Decision Time: Up for Grabs, Down for Keeps

Ryan Dembinsky — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

I must admit, I am not entirely certain that "Up for Grabs, Down for Keeps" is a universal reference. It refers to the hot open-market exchange that is the elementary school lunch table. "Up for grabs" means that the Fruit by the Foot is in play if you can come up with a fat sack of Nutter Butters, or perhaps a goat cheese sandwich if you're from Scarsdale. "Down for keeps" means you changed your mind or pulled the fake-out move and decided to hang onto it for personal consumption.

Anyway, today's segment deals with the decision of determining who should be stashed away "down for keeps" versus who is better off being placed back on the market "up for grabs" in those keeper leagues as we head into the off-season.

The 2008 regular season provided no shortage of fantasy surprises and it is important to determine which of these were anomalies and which will be around for a while. Furthermore, some of these surprises came at the expense of some longtime no-brainers for keeper leagues. Hence, let's divide 'em up and take a look at who NOT to keep for next season.

Terrell Owens - Surely, some desperate team will pick him up for another season and let him ruin its morale if the Cowboys choose to release Owens. He'll probably put up some good games wherever that may be, but don't bother risking it at this point. There's too much potential for missed games and inconsistency with yet another quarterback.

Thomas Jones - Don't kid yourself folks, one career Pro Bowl in a year behind Brett Favre and one of the best (and most expensive) offensive lines in the NFL has more to do with the system than the runner. Sure, Jones might have another good year, but as you well know, Brett Favre might also retire ... again. Keep in mind that in Jones' other eight seasons, he averaged just over four touchdowns per season and his yardage is generally good, but not great.

Tom Brady - Believe me, this is tough to call on our side too. Still, Tom Brady is coming back from a very serious surgery and given the success that Matt Cassel enjoyed, it is not inconceivable to expect a shakeup. The Patriots have a notoriously savvy/frugal front office and are rumored to be considering a franchise tag for Cassel, which raises all sorts of question marks about Brady's future. We're not speculating or rumor-spreading here, but rather simply recommending you save your personal fantasy franchise tag for somebody else. A keeper has to be a lock and Tom Brady is no longer a lock.

Reggie Bush - How can you argue with the utter domination that Pierre Thomas demonstrated down the stretch this past season? Nobody in their right mind would consider scaling back his time on the field. You can certainly still expect Reggie Bush to catch his swing passes and play an integral role, but let's face facts -- the guy has never cracked 600 yards rushing and didn't even clear 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards in the past two seasons. Plus, he struggles with injuries every year. Again, your keepers are your rocks. Reggie Bush is a playmaker, but not a rock.

Ronnie Brown - We may be stretching here, because Ronnie Brown is not exactly keeper material to begin with, but just in case you are considering him, we'd prefer to put the kibosh on that idea right here. You probably look back on Ronnie Brown's season and say to yourself, "Dude, over 900 yards rushing and over 250 receiving with 11 scores. This guy is brain-dead." Well, how about you subtract his one good game, where he racked up five touchdowns, and then come back down to earth. Ronnie Brown is a good fourth-round bargain for your backfield, but he is not a keeper and he is not very consistent.

Darren McFadden - I'm a little at odds with my colleague Matt Snyder here, so take this one as a grain of salt as he probably knows about 10 times more about football than I, but until the Raiders can put together a semblance of a complete offense, I don't see the value in gambling on McFadden. We know he is a great athlete, but he has yet to carry a full load and struggled way too much with injuries to gamble unless you keep more than three players in your league.

Anquan Boldin - As much as it kills me to put Q on the list, he goes on the list. Besides the obvious struggles with injuries, Boldin most likely will not play in Arizona in 2009. Arizona has definitely shown interest in keeping Boldin, but for pennies on the dollar as compared to teammate Larry Fitzgerald's contract. Thus, it's doubtful Boldin will come to terms with the Cards. This means Boldin could very well play for a far less pass-happy offense. Again, if you are in a less limited keeper league where you hang onto upwards of 50 percent of the roster, obviously keep Boldin. But if you are faced with choosing three or four guys with a combination of long-term staying power and immediate results, Boldin is the wrong guy.

Fantasy Football Decision Time: Up for Grabs, Down for Keeps originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Which Dash Ya Got: DeAngelo Williams or Chris Johnson

Will Brinson — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football, NFL New Studs

There's no doubt that both Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams won a lot of ~~money~~ fantasy championships for owners this year. Johnson was a late round draft pick (although Snyds and I both loved him coming out of the draft) whereas DeAngelo was almost an afterthought with Jonathan Stewart coming into Charlotte (guilty on all fronts here of whiffing this one).

That being said ... who's the better bet for the long term in fantasy? Well, for starters, both appear to be locked into a tandem situation for a while; Stewart and LenDale White are both young and each do a superb job complimenting the two guys we're discussing here. Hence the hysterically overplayed 'Smash and Dash War'. (Again, guilty.)

Outside of "job security" (meaning touches and tandems), there are three other key components for a fantasy running back: big plays, environment and the feature factor. Yes, I am making these up; allow me to explain.

The edge that most folks would hand to Johnson has to be "explosiveness", a.k.a. the big play ... but that's kind of a tough argument to simply hand to the faster guy if you happened to watch Williams play at any point this year. Johnson is lighting quick, for sure, but when DeAngelo can cuts back to the outside, he looks almost unstoppable.

Environment -- thinking here of the rest of the team -- might actually be closer to a push. Yes, normally we would say that Jake Delhomme is better than Kerry Collins, but given Delhomme's game against the Cardinals and the final few months of the season, it's kind of tough to make that argument and feel good about yourself. The Titans defense is better, certainly, but the Panthers other offensive weapons and an offensive line that appears to be gelling quickly makes up for that.

So, presuming that Johnson is ahead -- I'll give him the BOOM factor for argument's sake -- with just the "feature factor" remaining, it seems pretty clear to me that DeAngelo is your pick for the future. Who had more touchdowns this year? Easy -- Williams. Why? Again, easy -- LenDale.

Stewart may take away from some of Williams' goal line touches, but for the most part, John Fox utilized them in the red zone on an equal basis. Jeff Fisher's choices with White and Johnson were vastly different, almost always utilizing the, um, heftier White around the end zone.

Couple in the fact that DeAngelo is far more likely to become "the man" in the sense of getting a full season, every game carry load, and it seems pretty simple (although either one is a great choice) that going forward, Williams is your selection in fantasy keeper leagues.

Dynasty Diaries: Which Dash Ya Got: DeAngelo Williams or Chris Johnson originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Ranking the Rookie Runners: The Finish Line and Looking Ahead

Sean Lalley — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 22:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football, NFL New Studs

Let's face it, this year was all about the Rookie RB when talking about fantasy football. Depending on the scoring system for your league, three rookies most likely finished in the Top 10 RB producers. This made for arguably the single greatest rookie RB class in recent memory, not only from a realistic perspective, but also for fantasy purposes.

Is this the new trend and will we lust over the rookie class next season as we prepare for our drafts? Well, let's not jump the gun just yet. However, what we can depend on will be the spiked draft day values of the returning sophomore class. Many of these talents have already become mainstays on the fantasy football horizon.

And so today, we take a quick look back at the season that was, but more importantly gage the values of this heralded class moving forward. Follow along and in order...
Chris Johnson: Say hello to the star. Dude is ready to break away from the pack. He's got stardom waiting around the corner and many would argue that had he been on the field the entire game against Baltimore this past weekend, the Titans would be playing for the AFC Championship. Well, looking forward it's hard to find a more lucrative player at his position. He reeks of upside and we've seen the potential come to fruition. Dominance for years to come is on the radar and LenDale White is in the rear view...eating a pizza.

Matt Forte: Forte put up a monster season and at times (well most of the time) carried an otherwise lackluster Bears offense. He was leaned heavily upon and produced instant star fantasy RB caliber statistics. He's certainly arrived in fantasy football terms and he's going to be in it for the long haul. Look for Forte to draw considerable less hype than somebody like Chris Johnson, but he'll be equal in reliability.

Kevin Smith: One would have to believe that Rudi Johnson is no longer in the picture. Smith gave a late surge down the stretch to topple 1,000 total yards to go along with 8 TD's. Aside from Calvin Johnson, he's the only real glimmer of hope the Lions organization can hang onto. Already expectations are on the rise for K-Smith heading into next season. His fantasy value will no doubt spike to new heights with realistic goals of 1,200 total yards and double digit TD's. Look for him to build upon his hot close to '08 and be a commodity come fantasy draft time next season.

Steve Slaton: The keys to the Ferrari are all his. OK, so maybe the Houston offense isn't quite that extravagant, but it's still a young creative offense with several budding stars. And the ground attack belongs solely to Slaton after he brushed aside would be competition (um, and Ahman Green's knee) to become the full time feature. He most likely helped many in their push to the playoffs and beyond. Is he first round material next season? No, but he's certainly not the second coming of Dominick Davis. If he's on the board in Round 3...I'd consider that a steal.

Felix Jones: Something just tells me that Marion Barber's audition as the full-time RB in Dallas didn't go as planned. Barber struggled to stay healthy down the stretch and couldn't fully be trusted. When healthy, we saw the burst and game-changing ability of Felix Jones. Does it come as a surprise that the Cowboys ship began to sink when Jones and slew of other injuries hit the team? He's going to be thrust into more looks n' touches next season and if he can stay healthy, he'll be a fantasy star.

Darren McFadden: I'd love to say that McFadden is going to evolve into the next Priest Holmes/LT/AP that we've all anointed him to be. However, let's face the reality of the fact that his team stinks and he's still gonna split carries with either Michael Bush or Justin Fargas. I'm with everyone else that the Raiders should've just gone at the final month of the season with simply McFadden to see what they had. And I'm with everyone that he can and should be a star. Yet, as it stands right now...I think his stock should be tempered heading into next year's draft.

Jonathan Stewart: Don't sleep on J-Stew. While everyone will be slurping the DeAngelo Williams kool-aid, I just don't see a repeat of last season. No, I'm not saying Stewart will overtake D-Will for the starting gig. Rather, I just don't think D-Will is gonna erupt again as he did and thus, there will more of a timeshare. And to that notion, J-Stew wasn't all that bad with the touches he got this past season. He'll be overlooked, but he's a smart investment for those who can afford to be patient.

Ray Rice: The "little engine that could" should get more chances to shine next season. He's still somehow gotta supplant Willis McGahee and/or LeRon McClain, but when given the chance this past year he delivered. He's still certifiable via the "sleeper tag" for next season. However, don't be surprised if he pulls a late season surge for some lucky owner who takes the late round flier. Think Pierre Thomas circa 2008. Is that too lofty?

Rashard Mendenhall: Injuries derailed his debut season in Pittsburgh. And judging by the way Willie Parker's season was going (prior to the playoffs), Rashard was looking at a ripe opportunity to be the man heading into next season. Well, he may very well still get that chance. In the least, he'll see plenty of work in the red-zone, which we all love to hear in fantasy football.

Tim Hightower: Will he or won't he be the man? Best guess is that Edgerrin James is on his way out of town. However, does that mean that Hightower has what it take to be the full-time featured RB? Um, his porous yards per carry average would suggest otherwise. However, his nose for the end-zone speaks to ears of fantasy footballers everywhere. He's not a bad option as a Flex or reserve RB...right now.

Ranking the Rookie Runners: The Finish Line and Looking Ahead originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Thu, 15 Jan 2009 22:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Adrian Peterson Owns Keeper Running Back Rankings

Matt Snyder — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

As opposed to quarterbacks, I'm definitely in favor of keeping running backs. In fact, I highly recommend keeping two runners instead of a quarterback, if you have two of my top 20. Running backs are the life-blood of your fantasy team, much like the oil in your car. Two consistent runners on your fantasy team make life so much easier, which is why it's your starting point.

As I said, I'm recommending you keep two from the list, which is why I'm ranking more than I did for quarterbacks or wide receivers.

Ladies and Gents, your top 20 keeper running backs ...

1. Adrian Peterson - He'll learn to stop fumbling the ball. In the meantime, 1,760 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground were a nice encore to his insane rookie season. He's only going to be 24 in 2009, by the way.

2. Michael Turner - I'd like for him to be more consistent, but this whole year was a learning process for the Falcons. Not too shabby, huh? His consistency will improve, as the Falcons offense becomes one of the top-notch units in the NFL. He'll be turning 27 this year, but he's only amassed 604 career carries.

3. Chris Johnson - He's only going to get better, and the Titans will likely begin to lean more on him as he matures into a superstar. He's much too explosive to put any lower on this list.

4. DeAngelo Williams - He was easily the top scoring running back in fantasy football this past season. So, why number four? I'm just a tad bit worried about where this came from. He couldn't completely overtake DeShaun Foster for two years. It's not like I'm incredibly worried, however, because he's still only turning 26 this year and he did average five yards per carry in 2007.

5. Matt Forte - We know he's going to get a massive amount of touches, we know he's a game-breaker, and we know he can handle the workload without slowing down. The question, though, lies with the entire Bears offense. Can the passing game keep enough attention off Forte, and can the line continue to improve?

6. Steven Jackson - Say what you must about the holdout and his injury woes in the wake of it. This guy is a flat-out stud when he plays. He'll have a full training camp next season, and he's sure to be motivated to stay strong and healthy. Jackson will be turning 26 this summer, so there's still plenty of gas left in his tank. Also remember, with a new coach in town, he's sure to be featured heavily in the offense.

7. Marion Barber - He's the Cowboys' horse, so don't let the late-season injury woes deter you. I might be a little worried about his punishing style of running the football, but he's still young enough to handle it for a bit.

8. Frank Gore - Through Week 11, Gore was an elite option in fantasy football, and then everything fell apart as he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness. Still, the Niners were looking like a strong team towards the end of the season, and the overall improvements will help Gore. Let others be fearful of Mike Martz's departure.

9. Clinton Portis - He's gone over 2,000 carries and will turn 29 this season, so his shelf life is starting to become limited. Still, I'd take three more years of nearly 1,500 yards rushing and nine scores.

10. Marshawn Lynch - We were really hoping for more from "Beast Mode" in his second season. You can attribute much of his second half woes to the fact that the Bills were one of the worst teams in football (2-8 in their last 10 games). He's got the potential, though, and he's only going to turn 23 this year.

11. Steve Slaton - We just kept waiting and waiting for the little guy to shut down, but he wouldn't. He's 23, playing in an explosive offense, and he just proved he could handle the load for an entire season. The diminutive frame does cause some concerns about long-term durability, but he hasn't given us any reason for concern just yet.

12. Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD) - Fred Taylor is going to be gone, and I'm fully confident MJD can carry the load as the featured back in Jacksonville. The only downside is the Jags line was horrible this past season -- and yes, injuries played a role. If they can patch things up in the offseason, there is no reason to believe MJD won't be an elite fantasy option.

13. Brian Westbrook - He's coming off of what can be considered a mild disappointment, judging by the lofty standards he has set for himself -- when you look at the only the season-ending totals. The problem is, the totals are skewed by three absurd performances in which Westbrook went for 30+ fantasy points. He actually had seven games with less than 10 points and sat out two due to injury. So, he was only usable in seven games. That's not a first-rounder, and it means he was a colossal bust. You still have to consider him as a keeper due to his history and the fact that he shouldn't be breaking down just yet (he's turning 30 and has less than 1,700 career touches).

14. LaDanian Tomlinson - Last year he would have landed number two on this list. That's the thing with running backs: Sometimes their tanks go empty without tons of notice. While he's been hurt all season, I believe we've already seen his best. He's got enough talent and desire for me to confidently place him here in the rankings, though, because LdT-Lite is still a stud.

15. Joseph Addai - What an absolute disaster of a fantasy season from Addai in 2008. If not for Braylon Edwards, he would be the most hated man in fantasy right now. We do know a few things, though. First of all, the Colts offensive line was banged up. Secondly, Peyton Manning's knee was injured early in the season, which didn't enable him to disguise whether or not a play was a run or pass on the stretch play -- he had to pitch it on a run, which gives the defense an extra few seconds to adjust -- and Addai was never really completely healthy. While I don't think we should expect him to jump back up to top five status, he's young enough -- especially in this explosive offense -- to keep in larger leagues.

16. Thomas Jones - Just as we at FanHouse knew he would, Jones emerged as an elite fantasy back in 2008. Entering 2009, however, there are questions. Who is going to quarterback? Will the new administration give a heavier role to the more-explosive Leon Washington? Is Jones seriously going to score 15 total touchdowns again, even though he never had more than nine in a previous season? At 31, when will he start slowing down?

17. Ryan Grant - After an abysmal start, Grant began piling up the yardage late in the season and broke the 1,000 yard mark. It was only his second season, and I don't expect him to continue being afraid of the end-zone (only four rushing touchdowns). I like his potential moving forward.

18. Darren McFadden - Coming off an incredibly disappointing rookie season, McFadden is primed to be drastically undervalued heading into drafts for 2009. We didn't see many flashes of what he showed he could do in college, but I still believe. He's only going to be 22, and the Raiders looked better towards the end of the season. He has far too much talent to dismiss in keeper leagues.

19. Kevin Smith - More reliable than McFadden, just a bit less upside. The Lions have to get better, obviously, and the offensive center-pieces will be Calvin Johnson and Smith. He compiled a pretty solid rookie season. He just had the misfortune of being in the most stacked rookie running back class ever, so he was overshadowed. He's a very viable keep here, considering the new Lions regime is taking over and Smith is only 22 years-old.

20. Pierre Thomas - From Week 11 through Week 16, there weren't many better fantasy backs than Thomas. He's definitely squeezed Deuce McAllister out of a job, and he's shown he can do it all in the backfield. This could spark a change in how the Saints use Reggie Bush. I really like the upside of Thomas in New Orleans.

Barely Missed the Cut

LeRon McClain - I'm encouraged by the fact that this 24 year-old received an average of 22 carries per game in the Ravens' last six contests this season. I'm discouraged by the fact that he wasn't routinely averaging over four yards a carry. Still, he found the end-zone 10 times this year. I'm betting he takes over the lead role in Baltimore with Ray Rice as the change of pace back and Willis McGahee being shown the door.

Jonathan Stewart - He showed us flashes of brilliance in his rookie season. Still, he's going to be relegated to short-yardage and pace-changing duties as long as DeAngelo is running the way he did this season. I feel like a repeat of 833 yards and 10 touchdowns is doable. Is that really worth keeping?

Ronnie Brown - It seems as though the Dolphins aren't serious about giving Brown enough carries to justify him as a fantasy starter on a weekly basis. Too bad, because he most certainly has the talent.

Reggie Bush - As I said with Thomas, it's evident the Saints have a do-everything back on their hands. Bush is a game-changer, though, so you shouldn't discount him. He'll likely be used in the slot often, and still get a ton of touches. In PPR leagues, he's a keeper over some of the above guys on this list. Of course, there are talks he'll never be the same again after his knee injury this year. Proceed with serious caution.

All the sleepers about whom I already wrote - Especially Derrick Ward. If he leaves New York and joins a team with any sort of promise -- in terms of being able to run the football -- he's definitely ahead of the above names and could up to as high as 15th on the list.

As always, feel free to leave specific keeper questions in the comments section, and we'll answer every single one of them.

Dynasty Diaries: Adrian Peterson Owns Keeper Running Back Rankings originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Thu, 15 Jan 2009 09:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Drew Brees and Philip Rivers Headline the Top 10 Keeper Quarterbacks

Matt Snyder — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

First things first: Depending on how many keepers you have, I really don't recommend holding onto your quarterback. I could see keeping one of the top guys if you don't have good running back or receiving options, but there are going to be plenty of quality options available in the redraft.

I'll explain more after the rankings, because I'll be able to better illustrate my point with the crop of quality quarterbacks who don't make the top 10. You'll see what I mean ...

1. Drew Brees - He's not going anywhere just yet.

2. Philip Rivers - The Chargers are becoming a passing team right before our eyes, and Rivers is legit. He was fourth in quarterback points in standard Fleaflicker leagues this past season, and the offense is still shifting its niche. With the emergence of Vincent Jackson and an increased use of Darren Sproles as a receiver out of the backfield, things will only get better.

3. Aaron Rodgers - Finished behind only Brees and Cutler in quarterback points this season, and it was only his first at the helm. Just like the person before him -- though not nearly as long or as durable, in all likelihood -- he's gonna be taking snaps here for a long time. He'll produce big-time numbers while he's at it. It doesn't hurt that the pass defense in his division is embarrassing.

4. Jay Cutler - I probably would have had him second, but with coaching changes comes the unknown. We fear the unknown in the world of fantasy. But hey, we aren't going overboard here. We're looking at a young quarterback with two young, very studly receivers. The sky's the limit when it comes to Denver's passing game.

5. Peyton Manning - Old reliable. He's only below the three young gunners because he puts up comparable stats to them, and they will be around longer.

6. Tom Brady - The toughest thing to do on this list for me was figure out where to put Brady and Matt Cassel. The Pats are likely to franchise Cassel for next season, so it's conceivable to believe Cassel will start at the beginning of the season with Brady taking over later. But what if the Pats are rolling people under Cassel, and they don't want to switch? Also, what if Brady never really recovers, and he becomes Carson Palmer? By this ranking, you can tell I don't buy into that for various reasons, but I'm cautious enough to slot him outside the top five.

7. Matt Ryan - The proverbial surface has barely been scratched in Atlanta. The offense is only going to get better as Ryan grows into a franchise quarterback. He could be your fantasy quarterback for the next decade.

8. Tony Romo - One thing you'll notice about all the quarterbacks on this list is they have a definite go-to receiver. Romo does, too, in Terrell Owens. The thing is, we can never be sure what's going to happen with T.O. There is talk the Cowboys could cut him. Also, we've seen enough ups and downs from Romo to be scared that his early success may not have been indicative of his overall talent. That being said, he puts up points and presently has the weapons. You could do much worse.

9. Matt Schaub - The Texans passing attack was among the best in football when Schaub and Andre Johnson were on the field together. Questions of Schaub's durability are sure to arise, to which I'd respond that Jared Allen's cheap shots low hits are what put Schaub out this season. Those low blows would have hurt Peyton Manning. I'm not willing to call him injury-prone based upon an accident like that.

10. Kurt Warner - I'll put a huge caveat on this one. If you are loving your chances to win the league next year -- meaning you have a stable with Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson, and Michael Turner already in place -- then you need to keep Kurt. I'll likely be ranking him second for next season -- assuming he comes back as the Cardinals signal-caller. It just depends on your plan, when deciding whether or not to keep him. If you have decent keepers for next season who could develop into beasts for the future -- like Darren McFadden and DeSean Jackson -- I'd stick with someone who will be playing much longer. We don't know Warner's future. Hell, the Cardinals may win it all this year, in which case Warner may elect to hang it up for good.

So, um, let's see. Who wasn't listed, but is likely to be a serviceable fantasy quarterback moving forward? A large handful of quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger, and David Garrard.

As I said in the intro, I'd just let others keep quarterbacks, while you draft a couple from the group I just listed. There's no way you should feel inferior with Big Ben and Flacco as your quarterbacks -- especially considering you probably kept solid receiving and running options instead of quarterbacks.

As always, you can ask specific questions regarding whom to keep in the comments section and we'll answer each and every one of them.

Dynasty Diaries: Drew Brees and Philip Rivers Headline the Top 10 Keeper Quarterbacks originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: MegaTron, Fitz, and 'Dre Lead the Keeper Wideouts

Matt Snyder — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 08:00:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

I initially just wanted to do a Johnson vs. Johnson debate (you can see the two studs to the right), on the wide receiver front, for a dynasty diaries selection. Then I realized that I'd have to wedge Larry Fitzgerald in there somehow.

Then, I realized you guys deserve some rankings. You deserve them for each position, dammit. So you'll be getting them all on Fantasy FanHouse. For now, though, we're gonna start with wideouts since that's where my head already was.

Yes, as I mentioned, there are three gentlemen head and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to keeper value. Remember, with keeper leagues we are trying to think about someone you could own throughout his prime and enjoy five to eight absolutely elite seasons. This is especially true with wideouts, because you probably won't be keeping many (if any). Finally, do not keep someone slightly unproven like Ted Ginn over an established stud like Terrell Owens. While Ginn might be the better player in three years, he definitely won't be for the next two. You aren't just building for the future. You are trying to win now and in the future.

So here you go, our top 15 keeper-league wideouts ...
1. Andre Johnson -- This wasn't even a question for me. He'll be 28 next season, so he has just the right amount of experience without being even remotely old. He's playing in an offense that is up and coming. Their passing attack is on the rise with Matt Schaub coming into his own, when he played, in 2008. Even if you want to point out that Schaub is injury prone, it doesn't hurt Andre. His average points per game aren't overly affected when Schaub misses games. As I've said before, I'm looking for records from Johnson in 2009.

2. Larry Fitzgerald -- He'll only be 26 in 2009. Seriously. He's already amassed over 400 catches and 6,000 yards and he hasn't even turned 26. No one can guard him, his offense is prolific, he stays on the field, he's consistent, and he makes amazing catches like he did on that fleaflicker in Arizona's first playoff game. What's not to love?

3. Calvin Johnson -- MegaTron lives. You cannot dispute his talent. He may even have the top two beat -- though it would be a really tough call, as all three are inexplicably talented. Your worries here are the unknown. What kind of coach will be hired? Who is going to be his quarterback? I know he had sick numbers in 2008 on a historically bad team with pretty awful QBs, but he wasn't top three. I love him as much as the next guy, I'm just telling you his drawbacks, because the positives are obvious.

4. Brandon Marshall -- Really, he should have had a better season in '08. Expect him and Jay Cutler to come out in '09 with a fury over their disappointing 2008. Both are young and talented, and the Broncos hired an offense-oriented coach after considering the talent in the passing game already there.

5. Roddy White -- Matt Ryan was only a rookie, and White still absolutely lit up the stat sheet to the tune of 99-1466-8. White will turn 28 in November. Translation: You keep him, you get six years of elite stats, including two or three of mind-boggling numbers.

6. Greg Jennings -- He and Aaron Rodgers are about to develop a disgusting rapport. Having Jennings go 80-1292-9 in their first season together was a good start.

7. Reggie Wayne -- You know when someone is a stud? When people complain about 86-1274-7. The Colts' passing offense isn't going away, and Wayne's only 30. He's got some juice left.

8. Steve Smith -- The direction Carolina is heading is the running game. That's fine for their real team, and it's fine for Smitty when they do decide to pass -- as he'll likely see single coverage. He'll just need to get bigger chunks with his catches than most, and you run the risk of being saddled with a three-point week every once in a while.

9. Marques Colston -- He was finally on the same page with Drew Brees in the last three weeks, and the results were stellar. He'll be back, and he's not going anywhere for a while.

10. Anquan Boldin -- You won't find a tougher SOB in football, but he keeps finding ways to miss games. He's missed 16 in his six-year career. He's been inconsistent as well. He also threw up 91-1110-12 in only 13 games this past season. And he's only gonna be 29 in '09. And the Cardinals offense is prolific.

11. Randy Moss -- He's about to turn 32, and he missed Tom Brady this past season. He's still a beast, just not a top-10 beast in a keeper league. He's top five in year-to-year leagues. Easily.

12. Dwayne Bowe -- No one in the league was more consistent in 2008. The only problem was that he was not explosive. His consistency was more around 10 points than 20. Of course, it was only his second season, and his first with Tyler Thigpen. Things go up from here. Just trust me.

13. Vincent Jackson -- The Chargers are becoming a passing team as the star of Philip Rivers rises. As Antonio Gates ages, Jackson also becomes the favorite target of the hot-headed Rivers.

14. Wes Welker -- There were 108 instances where he caught a pass and didn't score a touchdown last season. Love to see more scores, considering that alone is worth 60 yards. Still, he's worth it at this point.

15. Eddie Royal -- He burst on the scene as a rookie, but was largely inconsistent. Hey, that's a rookie for ya. He'll grow. That Broncos passing attack is going to develop into a juggernaut.

Difficult to leave off: Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes, Bernard Berrian, Lance Moore

Keep an eye on: Donnie Avery, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez (Marvin Harrison will be gone from Indy)

I realize the one I need to explain is T.O. He's gonna turn 36 next season. There are reports that the Cowboys might end up cutting him because of his divisive locker room presence. I'm not here to talk about whether or not I think that's true or just. For fantasy purposes, I'm a data analyst. His numbers on the field are good enough to make the list. What knocks him off the list is his age and the fact that I'd be worried he'll finally wear out his welcome on good teams with decent quarterbacking.

Any other questions on this subject, feel free to post and you know we'll reply.

Dynasty Diaries: MegaTron, Fitz, and 'Dre Lead the Keeper Wideouts originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Fri, 09 Jan 2009 08:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Trying to Find the 2009 Version of Lance Moore

Matt Snyder — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

Lance Moore only caught 32 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns in 2007. In 2008, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. It came from out of nowhere, considering all the other receiving options in New Orleans, but that doesn't mean we can't start grasping at who could be the one who goes from relative fantasy obscurity to a great contributor in the time of one season.

Let's check it out those who will likely see an expanded role in their offense next season, in addition to growth as a playmaker. Please realize these are for deep keeper leagues. Do not even think about keeping any of these over an elite receiver.

Donnie Avery, Rams -- As I said in my top-10 picks post about Steven Jackson, the Rams can't get any worse. They'll figure some things out in the offseason and Mr. Avery is going to be an important part of the offense for any new administration due to his youth. We saw the flashes of talent this time around, and next season we'll see him grow into a real NFL receiver. Plus, it's not like his division is chock full of beastly defenses.
DeSean Jackson, Eagles -- He was a fickle option, to say the least. Still, he was only a rookie, and it was obvious the Eagles thought highly of his big-play ability. You know they like to throw the football, and he's easily their most talented wideout.

James Hardy, Bills -- Never really got a chance in the Buffalo offense, but he has the physical tools not many others do.

Jason Hill, 49ers -- He began to emerge in the second half of the season as the Niners found their stride. He never put up big numbers, but Isaac Bruce is -- as you know -- a thousand years old. The new guard is right around the corner as the Niners are set to become players in the weak NFC West.

Josh Morgan, 49ers -- As I said above, new guard. I actually like the upside of Morgan much more than Hill. He's the future WR1 for the Niners. The only question is whether he gets to the echelon we want in 2009 or 2010.

Johnnie Lee Higgins, Raiders -- The Raiders closed the season with two wins over decent opponents. In those games, Higgins caught six passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns. The strength of the Raiders is going to be the running game with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, but JaMarcus Russell is going to need a deep threat. Higgins is a gamebreaker, and I'm hardly confident about Ronald Curry, Javon Walker or Ashley Lelie at this point.

Andre Caldwell, Bengals -- Unless the Bengals' "strong" finish -- a three-game winning streak which killed their draft status -- made the front office believe they would have been strong with Carson Palmer at the helm this season, they'll find a way to part with Chad Johnson and Chris Henry. They may even let T.J. Houshmandzadeh walk, though I doubt it. Either way, Caldwell is a very talented receiver who caught five passes in Week 17 and will be getting a much better quarterback next season after he's had a year to learn the system.

Dynasty Diaries: Trying to Find the 2009 Version of Lance Moore originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dynasty Diaries: Trying to Find the 2009 Version of Michael Turner

Matt Snyder — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy Football

Looking for the 2009 version of Lance Moore instead? Head over here.

Michael Turner was relegated to mop-up and proverbial "change of pace" duties in San Diego. This past offseason, he was free to sign elsewhere, and the Atlanta Falcons swooped in like any good falcon would. Only Turner wasn't prey, he was a beneficiary. He turned out to be a steal, and he'll be taken towards the top of the first round next season in fantasy drafts.

Like any good dynasty league player would do, we need to start examining who could experience this sort of leap in fantasy football before next season. It's much better to be proactive than reactive, so here are some running back candidates who have a shot at gaining the job on their own team or in a new destination.

Leader in the Clubhouse

Derrick Ward, Giants -- He'll be a free agent when the Giants' season ends, so he's the most obvious choice here for the headline. The Giants likely don't want him gone, but they have to keep Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw can handle the RB2 duties for them. There will be a team out there so desperate for a featured back that they'll break the bank for Ward -- Seahawks? Broncos? -- and the Giants can't justify a huge cap hit.
Ward is a stud, racking up over 1,000 yards in a backup role, averaging 5.6 yards a carry along the way. The only two question marks would be: 1) How does he survive behind a line that's not as stellar as the Giants? and 2) How much longer can he hold up, considering that he's gonna be 29 when the season kicks off and running backs traditionally start to slow down in their early 30s?

Still, I'd give him a long, hard look in deep keeper leagues. I'm not too scared about the age for the near future because he hasn't amassed a huge amount of tread on his tires just yet. He's certainly atop my list as the "Michael Turner of 2009."

A Close Second

Fred Jackson, Bills -- He's a free agent, but exclusive to the Bills. It's hard to say what direction Buffalo will take in the offseason, but they definitely need to do something different. If they let him walk -- which you know he wants to, because he's not starting over Marshawn Lynch -- he's right with Ward. He went out with a bang in Week 17, and actually had three straight solid fantasy weeks. That's pretty impressive on a bad team.

Need a Break

Michael Bush, Raiders -- Unfortunately, he's likely to remain a Raider next season, and he's likely to be buried behind Darren McFadden. Crazier things have happened, for sure, but our best realistic hope at this point is for him to reprise a "Derrick Ward of 2009" role, and the Raiders aren't good enough for two 1,000-yard rushers. If, for some godforsaken reason, the Raiders let him go become a featured back somewhere else, jump on him. He's a stud in the making.

Leon Washingon, Jets -- He only averaged 5.9 yards a carry. This just feels like a Tiki Barber type situation where the higher-ups don't believe he's big enough to carry the load on his own, yet he just keeps making plays until they finally give in. He's not going anywhere, and he still has Thomas Jones in front of him. Still, there is a new coaching staff on the way and Jones isn't getting any younger.

Jerious Norwood, Falcons -- Like Leon, he just seems like he's getting wasted -- only he's behind Turner, who definitely isn't going anywhere. You'd be hoping for an injury to Turner or an ill-advised trade by Atlanta here.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs -- Larry Johnson says he wants out of Kansas City. There are likely too many complications with the salary cap for this to happen, but anything's possible. Charles has shown a few flashes of his ability, so hopefully he gets a shot sooner rather than later for the Chiefs.

Desperation Heave

Laurence Maroney, Patriots -- He has so much talent that we can't forget about him altogether. It just seems like Bill Belichick is content to let him rot in half the games he plays, meanwhile, he can't stay healthy anyway. What a shame.

Dynasty Diaries: Trying to Find the 2009 Version of Michael Turner originally appeared on Fantasy Football Fanhouse on Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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