Fantasy Reality Check: A Giant Problem

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

The 2008 New York Giants were a power football team. They led the NFL in rushing yards with more than 2,500. They had two runners go for over 1,000 yards while another averaged 5.3 yards per carry in limited action. Derrick Ward's departure wasn't supposed to matter, as Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw would continue to spearhead a dynamic rushing offense behind a great offensive line. In theory at least. Instead, the 2009 Giants are a shell of their former selves in terms of running the football.

Sure, they've had their moments and entered Sunday seventh in the NFL in rushing yards. But their yards per carry were significantly down and they weren't running it near as much. With the increase in passing, the Giants offense seemed to have lost its identity. With a bye week to prepare and a cushy soft Atlanta run defense coming to town, Week 11 seemed the perfect time to bring that dominant rushing attack back.

Instead, the Giants' run game flopped. Jacobs only carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards. His touchdown was a bit of a consolation prize for fantasy owners, but it still wasn't he the day we envisioned for him after looking at the numbers leading up the game. Bradshaw also carried the rock 12 times, but he only found room for 34 yards.

Even worse for fantasy owners of Jacobs and Bradshaw was the fact that Eli Manning torched the Falcons for 384 passing yards and three touchdowns. They were heavily reliant on the pass because they couldn't run -- against a bad run defense -- and were successful throwing the football. And they won.

Simply put: it's time to drastically downgrade both Jacobs and Bradshaw. So, yeah, the matchup next week against a banged up Broncos team that has lost four straight games and been shredded on the ground recently looks like a tasty treat for Jacobs and Bradshaw. So did Sunday against Atlanta. Jacobs is a low-tier RB2 and Bradshaw's a bench player in most leagues.

Other Reality Checks

• The Saints running back situation is a coin flip. It's the old Broncos or Patriots. With Reggie Bush out of the picture and the Saints facing a hapless defensive unit in Tampa, many liked Pierre Thomas to have a top-10 week. I was reluctant to endorse him as elite initially because he's been so unreliable from week to week, but I caved in and gave him a significant boost once word broke that Bush was out. And Thomas did run well, but he didn't get the right chances. He had 11 carries for 92 yards while Mike Bell had 13 carries, 75 yards and two goal-line touchdowns. Bush should be back next week and the Saints are playing a tough Patriots team. I'm not sure I'd trust any of these backs, as they'll likely be passing frequently.

• In our podcast, we warned against ignoring bad real games and what they can do for you in fantasy. We pointed to the Lions-Browns game and what it could provide in terms of numbers, but this completely exceeded my greatest of expectations. I loved Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith to have big games and foresaw the decent numbers for Jamal Lewis. But Brady Quinn and Matthew Stafford combined for 726 passing yards and nine touchdown passes. That's a lot of fantasy points. While we're here, let's not discount the work of Stafford.

Stafford has had his ups and downs as a rookie, but played well last week against a tough Vikings defense. He's playing through pain and has started to rely more on his running backs and tight ends -- knowing his receivers haven't been great with their hands. Smith caught four passes for 104 yards and rookie Brandon Pettigrew caught six passes for 72 yards while Dennis Northcutt and Bryant Johnson were passed over much of the afternoon. Stafford was on the same page with Megatron, and it paid off. What a day. The Lions defense is a sieve, so they'll have to be passing frequently the rest of the way. Stafford can provide a good option in leagues where you play multiple quarterbacks and is a great own in dynasty or large keeper leagues.

• After a 77-yard, two-touchdown afternoon, we can safely say the Patriots are going to stick with Laurence Maroney as their feature back. The offense is presently firing on all cylinders, so there's no reason to change. I'm not worried about the possible return of Sammy Morris, either.

• You know why I despise fantasy kickers? Because Billy Cundiff was unemployed last week and he kicked five field goals Sunday. Because Nick Folk was 10th in kicking points before the week and ended up with one point. And because there are multiple examples like this every single week. There is no method to the madness. Every league should outlaw them. I've done so in my two hometown leagues and it's the most fun I've ever had. All the fun without many of the headaches. Seriously, let's all eliminate them from fantasy football.

• Think it's not worth carrying a handcuff running back? Ask Michael Turner owners how they enjoyed Jason Snelling on Sunday. Ask Cedric Benson owners if Bernard Scott was acceptable. Ask Julius Jones owners if Justin Forsett was OK. LeSean McCoy filling in for Brian Westbrook? Money. Better yet, find those owners who didn't get a hold of the handcuff and see how they enjoyed watching the backups play well with their starter on the bench. This is also the position from where we saw Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Mike Bell and Laurence Maroney emerge. The lesson? If you own Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene is on the waiver wire, for example, dump your fifth wideout or third quarterback for Greene immediately.

• Matt Forte still has no room to run. This isn't new information, but he was -- once again -- relegated to attempting to gain some fantasy relevance in the passing game. Last week it worked out well, as he had 120 receiving yards. This time around, not so much, as Forte had just 20 receiving yards to accompany his 34 rushing yards. To rub salt in the wound, rookie runner Kahlil Bell took his first carry 72 yards. He had running room and then it was off to the races. Does the offensive line have a personal problem with Forte? Jokes aside, Forte is easily the biggest first-round bust of 2009.