Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.
Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson have been albatrosses for most of the season, but both came through to help their fantasy football owners in Week 8. Forte ran for 90 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tomlinson also scored twice and amassed 56 yards on the ground. If we look deeper, though, neither back did anything to make you think they're all of a sudden going to turn it on and start producing on a consistent basis.
Forte needed 26 carries to gain 90 yards against a terrible Browns rushing defense. He's been fantasy gold against the Browns and Lions, but pretty much sucked against everyone else. His offensive line could barely even mount a push -- and sometimes they didn't have one at all -- against the Browns' front. Looking at the schedule the rest of the way, I can see him being an elite fantasy option one more time, Week 13 against the Rams. That's it. The rest of the way, he'll be held to less than 10 points, starting with the Cardinals next week. Yes, the Cardinals were shredded by the Panthers run game Sunday, but they were the top run defense in the NFL prior to that. And the Carolina run blocking puts the Chicago blocking to shame.
If you own either of these guys, trading them now would be a good idea.
Other Reality Checks
• Brandon Jacobs received 20 carries to Ahmad Bradshaw's nine, but Bradshaw still scored the touchdown -- a one-yarder, no less. What gives? It appears the Giants are simply going to give Jacobs two-thirds of the carries and keep Bradshaw on the field when they feel like it. Whoever is in when the ball is on the one will get the opportunity to score. You should still want to own Jacobs over Bradshaw moving forward, because he'll get more chances for yardage and TDs.
• Shonn Greene, the hot pickup last week, didn't get much action in the Jets' loss to the Dolphins. He gained just 18 yards on eight carries. Just as we told you all last week, the Jets would stick with Thomas Jones as their workhorse in close games, and he gained another 102 yards on 27 carries Sunday. The split in carries will remain similar for the time being. This -- like Mohamed Massaquoi and Jeremy Maclin, to give two examples -- is a perfect example of people irrationally falling in love with a player after one good game. Like we've seen with Miles Austin, for example, we need to see a couple games before granting a player must-start status.
• With Owen Daniels going down, there are extra touches to be had on offense for the Texans in their high-powered passing attack. Look for an increase in looks to Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter. None of the tight ends the Texans will use with Daniels out will be fantasy viable, as they don't have his pass-catching talent. Matt Schaub is just going to throw to whoever can best help them win games and Joel Dreessen and James Casey don't really qualify. Leave them on the wire and grab Walter if someone gave up on him. • Kurt Warner got confused and played like Jake Delhomme for this Halloween weekend, throwing five picks against the Panthers at home. Meanwhile, Delhomme threw none. It was like the Bizarro game. For now, you Warner owners have to assume it was just a bad game that can't really be explained. Remember, he threw five interceptions once in 2007, but he bounced back the next week with a big game. He shouldn't have too much trouble carving up the Bears next week in similar fashion. Don't lose the faith just yet, as there's still some gas left in his tank.
• So Brett Favre beat the Packers twice. Many Brett Favre fans (who claim to be Packers fans) were rooting for the Vikings to win so it would prove some sort of point. Now, they feel vindicated because he's a "winner" and Rodgers isn't. Whatever. Just remember we are playing fantasy football. Rodgers is still an elite option while Favre is a lower-tier QB1 or upper-tier QB2, depending upon league size. The four touchdowns by Favre were great, but that's not going to happen too often. Rodgers will generally always throw for more yardage and he'll get you rushing yards as well. If you own Favre, you might see if Rodgers' owner can't separate real football from fantasy football and make a deal.
