Here's how it works. We throw some intriguing matchups at the FanHouse staff and ask whether each player will be over or under a certain point total. The result? Fantasy Football Over/Under. Makes sense, right?Now that I've explained the concept above, let's throw it out the window for one week and do something completely different. This week, we'll take a look at a couple interesting matchups and find players I think will be over their expected norm, pairing them with guys I see as being under their expected norms. Think of it as bold predictions for Sunday.
David Garrard over Matt Schaub
I ranked Schaub, an obviously elite QB, ahead of Garrard in our rankings this week, but I gave both identical scores when I rated players. In this case, it's smart to go with the safer play, which is Schaub, but I feel Garrard actually outshines him on Sunday. The Jaguars have the benefit of playing an almost-unbelievably bad Titans' secondary. Not only does Garrard have a great young weapon in Sims-Walker, he's also connected with Torry Holt in recent weeks.
On the flip side, Schaub is working with Andre Johnson and his lung contusion, and an underperforming Kevin Walter. Tight end Owen Daniels has been the best in the business. It should be no secret that the Texans' opponent this week, the Buffalo Bills, have been limiting passing stats this season (to the detriment of the rush defense). Give them only one healthy, good player to cover and this could be a long day for the Houston QB. He might be the safer pick of the two, but I'd actually feel better about my team with Garrard under center this week.
Vince Young over Eli Manning
If the last entry was a stretch, this is a chasm of biblical proportions. Young is the new starter for the Titans, and he's well aware this is his last chance to impress the NFL. Has anything changed, or will we still get the same emotional, unstable Vince from years past? I think he's grown up now, and there's a big difference from trying to save a team as a 23-year-old rookie and inheriting a nothing-to-lose bunch as a 26-year-old veteran with ample preparation time on the bench. Older and wiser, Young should have a great day as your QB2 against a Mathis-less Jaguars secondary that has no help from the pass rush.
Manning looked the part of a QB1 early in the season, but his last two weeks have taken a toll on his fantasy line. He threw one TD and one pick and couldn't amass 200 yards in the Saints' blowout of the Giants. Last week he was a turnover machine, throwing three picks against the Cardinals in a game the Giants expected to win at home. Now he travels to Philadelphia, a team great at causing turnovers and confusing opposing QBs. I suspect Manning will have more turnovers than touchdowns yet again, and teams starting the New York QB could be in for a long game.
Kevin Smith over Chris Johnson
Smith returns from his bye week refreshed and healthy. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for wide receiver Calvin Johnson. The Lions must see this as a winnable game for them, and they'll stick with the running game throughout the contest. I see Smith receiving over 20 carries, and against the soft Rams defense, he'll put up RB1 numbers on Sunday. With Johnson not receiving many looks in the red zone, he'll have to do his damage from far out. Against the Jaguars, a team that limits opposing RBs at the expense of the pass coverage, that's not likely to happen. I'm definitely excited to see CJ4.24 and Vinsanity on the same field though.Justin Fargas over Reggie Bush
Both Oakland RBs get the benefit of a tasty matchup against the Chargers' understaffed defensive line. One of two should have a big line on Sunday. With Bush, I list him here to tell you he should be on your bench at this point, if not on the waiver wire. You never know how many touches he'll get, and his work in the passing game isn't guaranteed any more. If you're still hoping for a rebound, I think it's time to give up.
Mike Sims-Walker over Larry Fitzgerald
One was the No. 1 receiver picked in fantasy football drafts this season, and more often than not a first-rounder. The other was undrafted in most leagues, and in fact didn't exist until late in the game (remember, Sims-Walker had been plain old Mike Walker until recently). With that in mind, which would you expect to be averaging nearly 100 yards per game? That, my friends, is our buddy MSW. He's scored three times in four games played, and hasn't caught less than six balls once this season.
Fitzgerald, on the other hand, has averaged close to 75 yards per game while scoring five times in six games. Both are quality options, but MSW deserves to be considered in the same breath with Fitzgerald at this point, and since Sims-Walker has the better matchup, I think he'll prevail.
