Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean. A few years ago, I used to swear by the draft-day method of avoiding all wide receivers for at least the first three rounds -- and sometimes up to the fifth in leagues with multiple flex positions. The reasoning was simple: the incredibly fickle nature of receivers. Not only is there more turnover from season to season in terms of production than at any other position, there is week-to-week turnover. Maybe it's time to get back to that theory. Witness, Miles Austin has accrued 16 catches for 421 yards and four touchdowns over his last two games. Anquan Boldin, an upper-tier wideout before the season, entered Week 7 with 306 yards and one touchdown for the entire season.
This isn't an indictment of Boldin. It's just an illustration (we can find other examples, such as Sidney Rice vs. Greg Jennings or any high school player vs. T.O.) of how the position is so unpredictable.
Anyway, we should move on, because we can't retroactively go back and tell you to avoid multiple wideouts early in the draft.
Meanwhile, Marion Barber had just 47 yards on 14 carries and Tashard Choice didn't get to run the ball once. Felix Jones ran well, but he only received eight carries. Are we seeing the Cowboys transition back to being a passing team? Time will tell, but for the immediate future, the best fantasy player on America's Team is Miles Austin. Who would've thought that at the beginning of the season?
Other Reality Checks
• We have to start giving the Houston Texans' run defense some respect. After making like a sieve against Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, respectively, in the first three weeks of the season, everyone -- yes, including us -- assumed the Texans run defense would create fantasy gold for the opposing running back. They followed that up by stifling the rushing offense of the Raiders and then the Cardinals. OK, well, the Raiders suck and the Cardinals don't run the ball too effectively. In the past two games, though, the Texans are showing we can't just write off their run-stuffing ability. First, they held Cedric Benson to 44 yards on 16 carries -- and he showed what he's capable of Sunday against the Bears. This week, they made easy work of Frank Gore (32 yards on 13 carries). Taking into account everything we've seen the past four games, we shouldn't assume a big day against the Texans moving forward, and we might have to consider moving guys down the rankings against them.
• I just mentioned the Cardinals' ineptitude in terms of running the football this season, and with good reason. Entering Sunday, they were tied for dead last in the NFL -- with, hilariously, LaDainian Tomlinson's Chargers -- averaging 57.6 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Those two teams were also the only two in the NFL to not have a single rushing play go for more than 20 yards. Might there be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Cards with Beanie Wells? Tim Hightower is still going to get the goal line carries, but Wells seems to have taken over duties as the team's top back and he looked strong in doing so. The Giants have one of the better run defenses in football, but Wells managed 67 yards on 14 carries. He also scored his first career touchdown. He has the chance to have a very solid week against Carolina in Week 8, too, so definitely grab him if available on the waiver wire. • Good debut as a starter for Michael Crabtree. He caught five passes for 56 yards and you could even argue his presence helped pave the way up the middle of the field for tight end Vernon Davis to have a career day. In fact, it appears the 49ers have the chance to be a pretty solid passing team if Crabtree continues his rapid growth. Definitely grab Crabtree in every league if you still can. I'd even use a waiver claim on Alex Smith (if he's definitely named the starter) as quarterback depth. They'll have to throw all game to keep up with the Colts next week, then they'll host the Titans' horrific pass defense the following week.
• I cannot possibly fathom any discernible reason that Jake Delhomme attempted 44 passes while DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for just 23 carries. It got them a loss and three Delhomme interceptions. The Panthers did, however, seemingly pander to the complaints of Steve Smith, as he hauled in six catches for 99 yards. Is it possible making him happy at the expense of working their strength was part of the game plan? (yes, that was sarcasm) Regardless of what we saw in Week 7, I still don't believe Smith is even a WR2. I mentioned above how inconsistent wide receivers are, but he's more extreme than your garden-variety fickle pass-catcher. Here's what he's done weekly (catches-yards-touchdowns):
Week 1: 3-21
Week 2: 8-131
Week 3: 4-38
Week 5: 5-65
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 6-99
Also note the Panthers lost during his two good weeks. They won in Weeks 5 and 6. And he hasn't scored a touchdown. This is someone who was ranked among the preseason WR1 tier. You can have him. I'll take Austin and Rice over him in a heartbeat. • You know who really has been consistently good -- or even great? Chad Ochocinco. We loved him as a draft-day bargain, and boy has he been one. Check out his weekly breakdown:
Week 1: 5-89
Week 2: 4-91-1
Week 3: 5-54
Week 4: 3-24-2
Week 5: 7-94
Week 6: 5-103
Week 7: 10-118-2
Now, that is a WR1. In fact, the Bengals have been full of great draft-day bargains this year -- a season after being one big colossal disappointment.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-28-2009 @ 7:58AM
CASPeR said...
Randy moss, roddy white, msw, miles austin. in which order are you playing them for this week? I have slaton and ray rice, so I'm planning on playing 2 RBs, which only leaves me with two spots for receivers.
Reply