Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean. Ever since the Colts selected Donald Brown in the first round of last April's draft, fantasy players have been anxiously awaiting him to take over the No. 1 RB role for the Colts' high-powered offense. Well, they'll be waiting a while, because -- in terms of touches, goal-line carries and usage in the passing game -- Joseph Addai is still clearly the Colts' top option at running back.
Addai has 88 touches to Brown's 51. Addai has scored four times; Brown twice. Addai has 26 catches compared to just seven for Brown. This is not a changing of the guard. This is a starting running back being spelled by a backup.
It's true Addai didn't run the football well Sunday night, but consider the opponent. The Titans have had a strong rushing defense and pathetic pass defense all season. Thus, the Colts took what the Titans gave them and threw the ball most of the time. Addai's 10-catch performance should only further cement our confidence that he's the top option out of the backfield.
The Colts will head into a bye week, but when they return they'll get the Rams. The Colts won't need to throw a ton to throttle the pathetic "Lambs." You're gonna see a lot of running from both Addai and Brown. Expect them both to get their fair share of work. Just remember, if Brown ends up with better numbers, that doesn't mean he's taking anything away. When the Colts play reasonable opposition, they'll lean more on their veteran back.
Other Reality Checks
Apparently, Jamal Lewis is still above Jerome Harrison the Browns' depth chart. Color us shocked. Not only did we have Lewis buried, we had already planted sod over the grave and left the cemetery. So, what to make of him taking 31 carries for 117 yards while Harrison only received eight carries? Unfortunately, it means Eric Mangini is going to stick with Lewis as his workhorse when healthy. Harrison falls back down to handcuff status, which is a major stomach-punch for many of us. Of course, bench every Brown next week against the Steelers anyway. They mustered just two field goals against the Bills, so the Steelers might find a way to cause a negative score.
Jamaal Charles is clearly the best back in Kansas City. The problem? He's still not getting the workload he deserves. Larry Johnson came into the game averaging an embarrassing 2.6 yards per carry, and he's apparently not going to be content until it dips down below 2.0, because he turned 21 carries into 37 yards against the Cowboys. Not only that, he's now touched the ball 101 times and failed to score a touchdown. Meanwhile, Charles caught five passes for 54 yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. It's about time he got a shot, but we still aren't seeing him get it. For now, Charles should be owned in all deeper leagues in anticipation of eventually finding a role in a KC offense that is starting to move the ball via the air. If they want a balanced attack, they'll forgo any LJ carries in favor of Charles. Oh, and this should go without saying, but don't start Johnson in any league.
It's only a matter of time before Vince Young is starting over Kerry Collins. We saw Young enter the game late against the Colts, but that doesn't mean there was a change in the depth chart. Yet. The Titans are cooked. Yes, they haven't even played a third of the season, but they aren't rebounding from 0-5. It's time to give the keys to Young and see if he can resemble a starting NFL quarterback the rest of the way. He did look just as spry as ever on a six-yard run late in the game. He didn't connect on any of this three pass attempts, but the Colts' pass defense is pretty stout. I'd take a flier right now on Young in multi-QB leagues (I play in one league where you can start three, depending on how you use your flex position, and I'd definitely grab him now in that one) in anticipation of a move being made. My guess is they'll use Collins in New England and then make the change after their bye week, but being proactive instead of reactive can win you championships. VY against Jacksonville at home on November 1 could be a pretty decent spot-play. Sammy Morris is clearly the Patriots' No. 1 running back. We suspected this is what would happen, and it did. The Patriots ran the football 27 times and Morris took 17 of the carries. He also caught two passes for 39 yards. The Patriots will continue to use several running backs, but with Fred Taylor injured, Morris the only runner Bill Belichick really trusts to handle more than an occasional carry. The Broncos have had a pretty solid run defense this season (ranked fifth entering the game), so Morris' 68 yards on 17 attempts (4.0 average per) is a good sign. He'll have a tough test against Tennessee but will get enough looks to be as productive as he was Sunday.
Kyle Orton is a very solid fantasy option at this point. He's not a QB1 in most formats, but he's definitely worth using as a bye-week/injury replacement in every format. Knowshon Moreno continues to develop, Brandon Marshall is a man-child and Eddie Royal finally, Sunday, became as involved in the short passing game as we thought he would before the season began. The Broncos play sound defense and move the chains on offense. They have so much confidence now, too, that a swagger is developing. Expect good numbers from Orton (and Royal, Marshall and Knowshon) next Monday night against San Diego's lackluster defense. If your QB has a bye and Orton is available on the wire, get him now.














Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-14-2009 @ 9:06AM
Connect!cut REd said...
I read your piece on Adrian Peterson, I am just stoked that you were able to meet him.
Fantasy football Q:
I feel like I'm missing the boat. I'm not sure if I have the right players on my team. Available in free agency is: Donnie Avery, Earl Bennet, J. Maclin, Donald Brown.
On my bench: Jamal Lewis, Jerome Harrison, Miles Austin, Josh Morgan, Kevin Walter. Should I change around my team at all?
This probably doesn't matter but I also own RBs: forte, slaton, mendenhall. WRs: reggie wayne, MSW, Roddy white.
Reply
10-14-2009 @ 4:26PM
Matt Snyder said...
Thanks, man! Didn't meet him, though, only talked on the phone. Still, I enjoyed it.
Avery and Maclin all have higher upside than Morgan in my view. The Niners are getting Gore back soon and won't have to rely on passing a ton. of the two WRs, I'd rather have Maclin.
I apologize for proclaiming the Browns handed the job to Harrison. Last weekend was definitely head-scratching with the Jamal Lewis usage.