Fantasy Football Reality Check: Matt Forte's Time Coming

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

In the overwhelming majority of fantasy football leagues this season, Matt Forte was a top-5 pick. He was coming off a sensational rookie season and now had a strong-armed quarterback to stretch the defense and open running lanes for him. Thus far, the payoff for Forte owners has been quite futile. In two games, he's carried the ball 38 times for 84 yards -- without scoring a touchdown.

Be patient, though, because the payoff is on the horizon.

---

---

Though he did take the blame himself -- saying he needs to break more tackles -- Forte's struggles have been the result of no running lanes. They are coming off a game against the Steelers, who have one of the most stout run defenses in the NFL. In Week 1, the Bears' running attack was stifled by the Packers. Those same Packers were gashed by Chicago export Cedric Benson Sunday, but the problem for the Bears seems to be run blocking up the middle against a 3-4 defense. They don't face another one of those until November -- and, when they do, it's the Browns.

Until then? This coming week, Forte's got a date against the Seahawks, who provided Frank Gore with a career day in Week 2. Plus, if Matt Hasselbeck is out, we can expect to Bears to grab an early lead and play clock kill the entire second half. The next three games are against the Lions, Falcons and Bengals. The Falcons and Bengals aren't especially awful, but they don't provide the resistance the Bears have seen the past two weeks.

The bottom line is that now is not the time to panic with Forte. If his owner in your league is doing so, it's time to trade for him in a fantasy felony.

Other Reality Checks

- Knowshon Moreno gave us quite an encouraging sign in Denver Sunday. The rookie runner carried the rock 17 times for 75 yards (4.4 yards per carry). He was outgained by Correll Buckhalter, but the big news here is that Moreno received more than double the carries Buckhalter did. The deeper we get into the season, the better Moreno's knee feels -- in addition to him feeling more comfortable with the speed of the NFL. Expect some big games in the second half of the season from the dynamic Bronco back, if not sooner.

- Lee Evans caught that touchdown pass I predicted on last week's Cram Session, however, that was his only catch of the game. Meanwhile, Josh Reed caught four passes. It appears Evans is going to be the Bills' deep threat and cannot be counted upon for more than a hit-or-miss type.

- Ray Rice garnered the love of many from around the web heading into the season. He was hailed as the next big thing. Instead, he's taking a back seat to Willis McGahee, who is still clearly the number one option for Baltimore. McGahee received 15 carries to Rice's eight. He also scored the only two rushing touchdowns. Rice did catch five passes for 46 yards, but it's pretty clear this is a tandem like the Jets have ... with McGahee in the Thomas Jones role and Rice in Leon Washington's.

- Heading into the season, we knew we had a new stud tight end on our hands. Apparently, we didn't know it was Brent Celek instead of Greg Olsen. Through two games, Olsen has just three catches for 41 yards. The Bears use of Kellen Davis Sunday and the involvement of new receiving threats (Johnny Knox!) has tempered Olsen's value. Meanwhile, Celek has 14 catches for 141 yards and a score. I would rather have Celek moving forward, though it's too early to give up hope on Olsen.

- Zach Miller is a great tight end. The problem is he's playing on a team with an ridiculously inaccurate quarterback who constantly tries to hit the home run. I can't count how many times JaMarcus Russell dropped back and simply heaved the ball deep, hoping to connect on one of them. He came up empty all day. Meanwhile, Miller was neglected. The Raiders won, too, so it's not like they'll have huge motivation to change things. It looks like Miller is going to be an inconsistent option, but it's too early to just give up -- especially after his six-catch-96-yard Week 1 performance.

- Finally, how about that Giants passing attack? Eli Manning throws for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Mario Manningham catches 10 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown. Steve Smith catches 10 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown. Wow. Let's not expect a repeat of that again this season. It was a wacky game and the Giants did what they had to in order to win the game. They aren't abandoning the run-and-defense game plan; this was an outlier. Expect them to be extremely run-heavy the next three games (against Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland).

Still, Manningham is definitely an add in pretty much any fantasy league. When the Giants do throw, you can count on Eli remembering this game and his connection with Manningham. Smith should have already been owned in most fantasy leagues, but this game reaffirms him as their possession receiver.

Just don't go overboard on any of them. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will be the most valuable fantasy players on the Giants the next three weeks.