Fantasy Football Reality Check: Dig Deeper Than Stat Line

Each Monday morning of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

You know what Kyle Orton's line should have been? 16 of 28 with 156 yards and no touchdowns. He would have had a few more passing attempts before losing the game, which likely would have made him 16 of 30 or 17 of 31 or so. Instead, he was the beneficiary of the most insane amount of luck we've ever seen on one play in fantasy football. He forces a throw to Brandon Marshall in double-coverage, badly under-throws him and the Bengals tip the ball up in the air. The rest is history. And Kyle Orton had a decent fantasy day.

But don't be fooled.

Orton didn't make that play. What Orton himself did was put up less than eight fantasy points against the Bengals' mediocre pass defense. The 87-yard touchdown pass is blind/dumb luck ... like a basketball player banking in a game-winner from the top of the key. It counts, but it doesn't make him clutch. In fact, that ball probably should have been intercepted. Instead, a bunch of people who just look at stats and don't watch the games think Orton played well.

Be better than that.

Orton's not a viable fantasy option moving forward because that type of play isn't happening again in his lifetime.

Other Reality Checks

- Tony Romo obliterated a Buccaneers secondary who had no clue what they were doing. All three of his touchdowns (which accounted for 188 of his career-high 353 passing yards) were due to blown coverages by the apparently-confused Tampa defense. Now, unlike with Orton, I'm not going to write these off as a fluke. He still had to complete those passes and he hit his receivers in stride. The Cowboys threw the ball 27 times and ran it 24. Romo is a low-end QB1, but he's not going to repeat this game anytime soon. Temper your enthusiasm, especially with the Cowboys getting the studly Giants defense next week.

- Jay Cutler is getting a ton of flak across the Internet, and rightfully so. He threw four picks in his Bears debut on national TV. He appeared to be in panic mode for the entire first half, and someone really needed to tell him how good the Bears punter is. Still, two of the interceptions were due to his receivers failing to complete their routes and one was just an incredible play by the Packers defense. In the second half, Cutler looked much more in control, and he's already doubled how many passes longer than 30 yards the Bears had all of last season (and the lone play of this sort last year was a quick slant that Hester took to the house). Cutler likely has another rough game coming this week against the Steelers, but after that he's going to be just fine as a low-end QB1.

- Steven Jackson got only 16 carries and didn't catch a pass. This was due to the fact that the Rams were in catchup mode for most of the game. Still, the entire first quarter was scoreless and they only trailed by two touchdowns at halftime. Needless to say, I'm worried now about his workload for the entire season. You have to stick with him -- considering you used a first-round pick on him -- but I wouldn't feel too confident moving forward. The Rams face a significantly better run defense next week in the Redskins, too.

- Edgerrin James had 11 carries for just 30 yards, mostly in trash time. After a big day for Julius Jones, it's pretty safe to call Jones the starter and James the handcuff. They won't be sharing much against real competition.

- Brandon Jacobs was outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw, if you look at just the stat line (12 carries, 60 yards for Bradshaw; 16-46 for Jacobs). Again, though, we need to dig deeper. The Redskins were one of the strongest defenses in the league last year, and they added Albert Haynesworth to the middle of the line. They are much more vulnerable on the outside than inside. Bradshaw took advantage of this while Jacobs had to fight through the middle. That's not going to be the case too often, and Jacobs will get the goal-line carries, too.

- Earl Bennett is clearly the Bears' possession receiver opposite deep threats Devin Hester and Johnny Knox. As the season progresses and Cutler finds his way, Bennett is going to be quite the reliable PPR guy. He had seven catches for 66 yards, and he's only getting better.

- Steve Smith (Giants-type) is another cheap PPR guy. He snared six catches for 80 yards against a very solid defense.

- The Cowboys WRs aren't going to look like world-beaters when they face a defense who will actually guard them. Be careful not to break the bank for Patrick Crayton or Miles Austin and don't overrate Roy Williams in trade talks. Williams is a low-end WR2 at best and the other two are spot plays only.

- Visanthe Shiancoe caught just three passes for 26 yards, as the Vikings didn't even need to throw the ball to take down the hapless Browns. The outcome will be pretty similar next week against the Lions. Be patient with the big man, though, because when the Vikes do have to throw to move the chains, Old Man Favre loves his tight ends. Shiancoe will still be a solid tight end this year.