Fantasy Football Coin Flip: Philip Rivers or Donovan McNabb

Quarterback is a tricky position -- you can draft a stud early and end up with a fantasy monster like Drew Brees. Or you can draft a stud early and end up with your season done in Week 1, like folks who pulled the trigger on Tom Brady last season.

Most people, however, prefer to wait a little while into a draft before drafting a signal-caller though. And this year, two guys who will be getting a TON of mid-round love are Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb. With that in mind, myself and R.J. White went toe-to-toe over the course of several e-mails (although with the way I like to write -- read: loquacious -- I'm sure R.J. felt like it was a week's worth) to determine who's the better pick this year.

So, in the words of Wilco, let's get this party started. (With some mid-tempo rock!)

---

---

Brinson: Let's go ahead and get this out of the way -- I am a huge Rivers fan. I went to school with him at NC State, I watched him dominate for four years, I've seen the majority of his games with the Chargers, I've drafted him in numerous leagues ever since the Bolts traded Brees and I still firmly believe that Rivers is the best quarterback from his draft class.

I also believe that he's one of the elite quarterbacks available in fantasy drafts this year and yet, somehow, you won't have to pay elite price for him, relatively speaking. Of course, you might not have to pay elite price for Donovan McNabb, but it seems a little bit silly to go through the whole "D-Nasty is really -- no, no, seriously! -- going to stay healthy and have the best year of his career this year" charade again when the reality is that McNabb, without an elite receiver to complement he and Brian Westbrook in the offense, will not be as good as Rivers this year.

For reasons, of course, that I'll expand on. But first, R.J., I assume you disagree?

White: When does McNabb ever have an elite receiver? I'll take the trio of DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis and Brent Celek, along with newly-drafted weapons Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. That group is probably the best talent McNabb has ever had to work with. Consider that he'll also be playing behind a line that added Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews, and it's quite possible McNabb could make a run at the top tier of QBs.

Did you know that in the course of his career, McNabb has never thrown more than 13 interceptions in a season? In fact, if you take his average yards, TDs, and interceptions per pass attempt in his career, last year's 3,916 yards, 23 TDs and 11 interceptions were perfectly average stats. 4,000 yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio is average over the course of a full season for the guy. Imagine what he'll do with an elite offensive line and two new weapons on offense.

With Brian Westbrook slated to play in the next preseason game, McNabb will be heading into the season with a full complement of talent surrounding him. That makes him dangerous, and a much better value than Rivers in fantasy drafts.

Brinson: Hmmm. Well, while I won't deny the nice talent surrounding McNabb this year (I freaking LOVE Maclin and I think he'll be a nice complement to Jackson), let's not act like Terrell Owens wasn't once a Philadelphia Eagle. Like, in 2004. Which, not so coincidentally, is one of only two years that has seen McNabb top 3,500 yards on the football field.

Of course, if you want to discuss total yardage, you could always throw out the "but McNabb's almost never healthy!" Which is a statement that I'd be hard-pressed to disagree with; 9,10,14,16 are his games played the last four years, which would be nice except he's getting older and any implication that he's guaranteed to be healthy again this year (only once has he played in all 16 games in back-to-back seasons) is simply silly.

Rivers, on the other hand, hasn't missed a game in the three seasons that he's been the starter for the Chargers. Now, before you yell at me for sample size, let's consider how beneficial it is that he's only played three full years: McNabb has the wear and tear of 10 full seasons as a starter; Phil's likelihood of staying healthy is substantially higher, provided you're willing to exclude any fluke injury scenarios.

Oh yes, and in those three years, how good (and underrated, really) has Rivers been? He tossed for over 4,000 yards and 34 TDs last year. The last time D-Nasty hit those numbers was, um, let me see here ... well, dang. My computer must be broken, because I can't find that year on the googlez. But all crappy jokes aside, it's fairly important to note as well that in Rivers' first season as a starter, he threw for 3,388 yards and 22 touchdowns, which at this point would go down as the third or fourth best season in McNabb's career if he managed to put it up this year.

White: You can play the injury card as much as you want, but the truth is that anybody can go down at any time. No one is guaranteed to be healthy. Tom Brady wasn't injury-prone and looked like a super-safe pick heading into 2008, before Bernard Pollard ended his season. I do believe McNabb has a better line than Rivers, and this should help reduce the number of bone-jarring shots McNabb has to take during the season.

I don't doubt that Rivers will be good in 2009, so I can't trash him in this space. But while Rivers looks the part of a solid second-tier QB, McNabb has the upside to be a first-tier QB and challenge for the QB1 title this season. With his rock-solid portfolio in tow, McNabb as a sixth-round pick has the kind of upside that can win a fantasy season. I'll take him and pair him with a consistent QB2, in case McNabb does miss a game or two. When Weeks 15 and 16 roll around, and McNabb is racking up fantasy points at home against San Francisco and Denver, I'll be that much closer to a fantasy title.

Brinson: No doubt on the random injury thing -- it's why I cautioned against drafting Tom Brady too early last season (/end shameless self promotion). Of course, that's not, obviously, because I knew he was getting injured; it's because I didn't think Brady was good value at the front of the first round. That proved to be true, just much earlier (and easier!) than I expected.

I don't mention that because I'm a braggart (I am, of course, but that's not the purpose here), but because I think the only knock on Rivers -- maybe -- is the value card. You're burning a third-, fourth-, or fifth-round pick on him, and I don't like to pick up quarterbacks that early. Of course, the other options available are Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo and McNabb, at least in terms of where they're tiered out respective to draft position. And frankly, as good as Warner is, and as much as I like Rodgers, I think Rivers is the best option out of all the people there.

So if you're looking for a non-elite quarterback -- and I think you could argue there are only two in Drew Brees and Brady this year -- Rivers is almost unquestionably the guy in my mind. One of the reasons I love him so much? His schedule, particularly when paired against McNabb. SF and Denver are solid playoff options, but they're certainly not a chop-licking Week 15 matchup against the Bengals. Additionally, I think the loss of Albert Haynesworth will be debilitating to Tennessee, although it's hard to argue with a straight face that they won't be at least "good" defensively. But, hey, for all we know, Rivers won't even be playing in those weeks.

That's right. We all just remembered he plays in the AFC West. That means two matchups against the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs. Awkwardly, the Eagles also get those teams, and the Chargers have to face the NFC East, but at least it's only once.