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2008 From worst to first sensation of the NFC South. The Falcons won 11 games and earned a wild card berth in 2008 thanks, in no small part, to a breakout campaign by running back Michael Turner and Offensive Rookie of the Year efforts from quarterback Matt Ryan. Not only are the key players back on offense, but the team added 10-time Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez to the mix. With the ground game sizzling and Ryan's growth set to continue in 2009, the addition of Gonzalez should boost the fantasy value of everyone around.
The Breakout
Michael Turner led the NFL in 2009 with 376 carries. The Falcons have already expressed an interest in curtailing that figure down towards the 300-325 carry mark. Who benefits from the reduction in Turner's carries? Jerious Norwood. As a third down back, Norwood averaged 5.1 yards per carry and complimented Michael Turner extremely well. With an extra 50 carries or so, Norwood could increase his yardage by 50%. He could also double his touchdown total to eight as well. Norwood also caught the ball 36 times in 2008. Don't expect that number to increase drastically with the addition of Tony Gonzalez though. Without an injury to Turner, Norwood isn't going to be anything more than a third down back and a change of pace runner. But, in this day and age of the two running back system, Norwood's extra work makes sense.
The Bust
There's currently a lot of hype surrounding wide receiver / punt returner Harry Douglas. I've even seen a few sources predicting Douglas to take over at the slot position, overtaking Michael Jenkins. We need to remember that Douglas is an undersized, second year player who performed inconsistently in his rookie season. He only had 23 receptions and only three times eclipsed the 40 yards receiving per game mark. It's true that Douglas has been very impressive in OTA's, but let's see a solid building year at the third wide receiver slot in 2009 before we go ahead and give Jenkins' job to Douglas. Did I mention that Tony Gonzalez will probably cut into a lot of Douglas' receptions. I can see Douglas evolving into the #2 guy in Atlanta, but not until 2010.
The Depth Chart
QB1 - Matt Ryan
QB2 - Chris Redman
RB1 - Michael Turner
RB2 - Jerious Norwood
WR1 - Roddy White
WR2 - Michael Jenkins
WR3 - Harry Douglas
WR4 - Brian Finneran
TE1 - Tony Gonzalez
TE2 - Ben Hartsock
K - Jason Elam
The D/ST
As explosive and magical as the offense was in 2008, the defense was equally unheralded. The Falcons ranked 24th overall in yards per game allowed and allowed 127.5 yards per game on the ground. The defense wasn't the focus headed into 2008 and it showed. However, in the 2009 draft, the Falcons used seven of their eight picks on the defensive side of the ball. If GM Thomas Dimitroff sees success with his defensive selections in 2009 like his offensive picks shined in 2008, the Falcons could be upgraded tremendously.
Jerious Norwood performed admirably averaging 25.7 yards per kickoff return. He didn't reach the end zone on special teams but he set up the offense with good field position and should continue to do the same in 2009. Harry Douglas will become the full-time punt returner this season. This could be his chance to really shine. He averaged 11.9 yards per punt return in 2008 and scored once as a part-time return man. With a full season of returns, watch for Douglas to explode on special teams.
The Skinny
- Matt Ryan was only the second quarterback in NFL history (Peyton Manning was the first) to throw for 3,000 yards in his rookie season. Expect even more from him this year as his relationship with Roddy White grows and he finds ways to hook up with new target Tony Gonzalez. Ryan should also benefit from more opportunities to pass the ball as he gains more experience.
- The addition of Tony Gonzalez is going to benefit others, not just Matt Ryan. Being able to open up the passing attack with two top receiving threats will do wonders for the running game. It's true that Michael Turner will probably see his workload cut down. But, since defenses will have to use extra resources to cover both Gonzalez and Roddy White, Turner could see the same kind of success this season with fewer carries.
- The Falcons team defense is not where you want to try and earn points for your fantasy team. While they spent a lot of attention to upgrading through the 2009 draft, it remains to be seen if these rookies can combine with the veteran tools to fill the holes made vacant by Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Domonique Foxworth and others. You can expect this defensive unit to get better, but not enough in 2009 to help your fantasy team.
