A month ago, Matt Snyder took a look at the first edition of the FanHouse fantasy rankings and identified several players whom he felt deserved a second look, either ranking too high or too low. This week in On Second Thought, I'll do the same for the second version of our rankings. Quarterback this year has a very distinct top tier and an equally distinct second tier. As such, I don't any issue with the top seven QBs on our list. One of them may be a spot high or low, but those seven QBs should be the top ones off the board. If you don't land one of the seven, I'd wait to grab two QBs in the 12-18 ranking range instead of panicking and using a high pick on one of the next four or five.
Guys We Like Too Much
Matt Schaub, Texans. I'm guilty of drinking the Schaub Kool Aid as much as anyone, ranking him as the eighth QB and the first off the board after the top two tiers have been drafted. When he's on the field, he performs like a top-five QB, but therein lies the problem: he just can't stay healthy. Even with the great per-game average, Schaub has finished outside the top twenty QBs in both his years as the Houston starter. If you can draft Schaub as your starting QB after the rest of your core is in place, and then back him up with a very good #2, he's worth the gamble that he'll stay healthy. When he plays, he pays dividends. But you better have a good fallback option in place.
Carson Palmer, Bengals. We list Palmer as the 11th-ranked QB, but do people that play in 12-team leagues or deeper really feel comfortable starting the Cincinnati quarterback? The Bengals offense was terrible last year, and even though Palmer will be back under center in 2009, he'll be without his top target from this point on. Chad Ochocinco has threatened to remain a distraction on and off the field. The running game won't be any better, so defenses can comfortably play the pass. It's going to take a Herculean effort from Palmer to carry this team and be worthy of starter status.
Guys We Don't Like Enough
David Garrard, Jaguars. With a no-name WR corps and a run-first attack, Garrard finished 2007 with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio and was a top-twenty QB. In 2008, with his notable WRs including Matt Jones, Dennis Northcutt and Reggie Williams, the Jacksonville QB finished in the top ten at the position. After Jacksonville jettisoned nearly the entire WR unit and brought in Torry Holt and several talented rookies, we've dropped Garrard down to the 20th-best QB. Why? The team's best receiving back will be on the field most of the time, and Holt is the best receiver Garrard will have had. He seems like a safe bet to provide QB1 value for a discounted price.
Kyle Orton, Broncos. Last year, Orton enjoyed a successful top-twenty season last year in Chicago, and now he's in place as the unquestioned starter in Denver. Also in Denver is Josh McDaniels, who will try to employ a New England-style offense with Orton under center. He'll be throwing to Brandon Marshall (maybe), the underrated Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler. That's quite a step up from the guys he had in Chicago. While Orton won't have the top-five season Jay Cutler turned in last year, he could very well finish in the top ten at the position. Pair one of these two QBs (Garrard and Orton) with Schaub, and you should be set at QB this season.
