Prominent Players in New Locales

As is the case in every offseason, we saw several key players switch teams through trade and free agency. The highlight (if you're not a Broncos fan) was seeing Denver and Chicago swap QBs. We also saw a braggadocious receiver take his act to small-market Buffalo, a tight end get his wish for a trade granted, and a few other fantasy-relevant deals go down. Today, we'll dissect what each of those moves will do for each player in his new home.

---

---

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler, Bears - Cutler moves from the mediocre AFC West to the rough-and-tumble NFC North, and in doing so, leaves behind a plethora of passing-game weapons, an elite pass-blocking offensive line, and a non-existent running game (necessitating the need to pass). His new receivers have breakout potential, but there's no way the Bears will have Cutler throw 600+ times this season. He could still be a top-10 QB, but temper your expectations.

2008 production: 384/616, 4,526 yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs.
2009 prediction: 311/510, 3,560 yards, 29 TDs, 20 INTs, 98 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs.

Matt Cassel, Chiefs - Talk about a step in the wrong direction. After doing an impressive fill-in job for the Patriots, Cassel moves on to leading the sad-sack Chiefs into battle week after week. Kansas City has given him exactly one option in the passing game. Who do you think the opposing secondary will double-cover? Not only should you forget about the new KC QB enjoying a repeat season with his new team, you should forget about him altogether for your fantasy team.

2008 production: 327/516, 3,693 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs, 271 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs.
2009 prediction: 302/530, 3,090 yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs, 250 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.

Kyle Orton, Broncos - The other side of the Cutler deal, Orton moves to a Denver team with established weapons in the passing game. The Broncos also brought in top rookie RB Knowshon Moreno, which should ease the burden on Orton's shoulders. Though the schedule didn't do Orton any favors, he makes for a solid sleeper -- with most of the attention on Cutler in the trade, Orton is far from the minds of fantasy owners.

2008 production: 272/465, 2,881 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, 49 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.
2009 prediction: 300/505, 3,350 yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs, 60 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.

Brett Favre, Vikings - All but official at this point, Favre is expected to take over the reins of the Vikings offense. Is that really a good thing for Minnesota? With such a good running game, you want your QB to be able to manage the game and limit mistakes. In the twilight of his career, Favre's mistakes outweigh his occasional brilliant moments. This Favre is not one that should be starting for fantasy teams -- or for NFL teams, for that matter.

2008 production: 343/522, 3,472 yards, 22 TDs, 22 INTs, 43 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.
2009 prediction: 278/455, 2,750 yards, 16 TDs, 20 INTs, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs.

Running Backs

Derrick Ward, Buccaneers - Now free from the Giants RB rotation, many fantasy owners will be tempted to reach for Ward after he averaged 5.63 yards per carry in 2008. But just because he's out of the Big Apple, it doesn't mean that Ward isn't in a time share. Earnest Graham will still receive a significant amount of carries, especially if the Tampa Bay staff doesn't feel Ward can hold up to an increased workload. Last year's numbers could actually be closer to Ward's ceiling than his floor.

2008 production: 182 carries, 1,025 yards, 2 TDs, 41 catches, 384 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs.
2009 prediction: 220 carries, 950 yards, 3 TDs, 48 catches, 380 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD.

Wide Receivers

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks - Housyamama moves from being option 1A in a pass-first offense to being option No. 1 in a different pass-first offense. He'll be playing with a talented QB that shouldn't have difficulty getting him the ball. As long as it isn't Ryan Fitzpatrick, Housh will take whatever QB is behind center. Expect a return to prominence for the underrated receiver -- I see a return to top-12 status, making him a WR1 in your league.

2008 production: 92 catches, 137 targets, 904 yards,
4 TDs.
2009 prediction: 110 catches, 155 targets, 1,085 yards, 10 TDs.

Terrell Owens, Bills - Signs of a decline have begun to manifest in Owens' performance. He caught only 69 balls in 2008, despite receiving the same number of targets as the previous year. He scored 10 TDs, a fine mark for most but Owens' lowest total in a full season (14 games or more) since his San Francisco days. With Buffalo's pass blocking suspect and with Owens now 35 years old, I've put him on my "avoid" list at his price for 2009.

2008 production: 69 catches, 140 targets, 1,052 yards, 10 TDs.
2009 prediction: 66 catches, 120 targets, 915 yards, 7 TDs.

Laveranues Coles, Bengals - He might be filling Houshmandzadeh's role in the offense, but Coles is no Housh. The wide range of possibilities for the Bengals' passing offense this season is almost unbelievable -- it wouldn't shock me if they were third in the league or 30th. That leaves Coles' range of production in the same boat, as he could turn in a great 1,000-yard, eight-TD season or a 600-yard, three-TD stinker.

2008 production: 70 catches, 116 targets, 850 yards, 7 TDs.
2009 prediction: 65 catches, 98 targets, 800 yards, 5 TDs.

Torry Holt, Jaguars - One year removed from being a consistently elite fantasy WR, Holt suffered through injury and the awfulness of the Rams offense, posting his worst numbers ever. Playing alongside a very inexperienced group of receivers, Holt will be constantly relied upon to produce. Last year's maligned season was a worst-case scenario for Holt, and a rebound is likely. Pay a WR3 price, but expect WR2 numbers at the least.

2008 production: 64 catches, 119 targets, 796 yards, 3 TDs.
2009 prediction: 83 catches, 150 targets, 1,085 yards, 7 TDs.

Tight Ends

Tony Gonzalez, Falcons - It seemed like Gonzalez was pining to get traded for years, and this offseason he finally got his wish. Sent to the Falcons for a second-round pick, Gonzalez is definitely moving up in terms of the talent surrounding him. While one can't imagine pulling off that trade and not using the tight end extensively, the Falcons should fall short of giving Gonzalez the 150 targets he usually receives. I caution against using too high a pick on him.

2008 production: 96 catches, 154 targets, 1,058 yards, 10 TDs.
2009 production: 75 catches, 110 targets, 850 yards, 6 TDs.

Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers - Sure he's talented, as evidenced by his top-six tight end seasons in 2006 and 2007. On the other hand, 2008 was so wrought with injury and headache that Cleveland moved the downfield weapon. And Cleveland isn't exactly a team rich in receiving talent. If they weren't confident in Winslow remaining healthy and effective, should we be? His talent should get Winslow drafted as a starter at TE, but monitor his health closely.

2008 production: 43 receptions, 82 targets, 428 yards, 3 TDs.
2009 prediction: 55 receptions, 105 targets, 620 yards, 5 TDs.