Sleeper is such a "yada word" come fantasy draft time. Everyone on the Internet is trying to tell you who's going to bust out and become the "next big thing" that eventually, some sort of saturation occurs and said person becomes overrated. Happens every year. Instead, the smartest plan most of the time is to approach the landscape of a position as a whole and determine who is underrated overall (meaning, who's not getting the sleeper love and therefore falling too far on draft day). With that said, let's talk underrated fantasy quarterbacks, shall we?
Chad Pennington, Miami -- Always and forever, folks, is the answer to the question: "How long will Chad Pennington continue to be underrated?" He's not flashy, he doesn't have a big arm, he could have better weapons, but he likes "biscuits and gravy" (once naming them as his "favorite food" during a MNF game) and that goes a long way in my book. So too does "not making mistakes" and "great value as a second quarterback."
But quickly: How many games did Pennington have last year where he threw more than one interception? Answer: zero. How many games did he have with a QB rating above 90? Answer: 11. Five games without a touchdown is a little irritating, sure, but the guy is more or less free on draft day and the only two studs who share a matching bye week are Peyton Manning and Tony Romo.
Trent Edwards, Buffalo -- Again, another guy I'd love to grab as my second QB1.5 (yes, I just coined that term) because he's just too underrated at this stage of the game, which is odd considering the weapons he'll have at his disposal. First of all, there's the obvious: Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Both are very good receivers, but I fail to see how people are missing what an ideal combination they are; Evans can stretch the field like Owens can't anymore, but will no longer have to deal with double-teams thanks to T.O. being lined up on the other side.
Meanwhile, as defenses monitor Evans streaking, Owens will be freed up to work shorter routes across the middle. And then there's the running back corps: Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes, who combined for 129 (!) receptions last year. That statistic is all the more valuable when you consider only Lynch received really meaningful playing time. All of those factors combined with his growth as a starter make me think Edwards has way more upside than people are giving him credit for, and make him a fantastically underrated quarterback to grab in the later rounds.
Matt Cassel, Kansas City -- There's plenty of reason to believe that Cassel won't be a total superstar, given his big payday and the relative lack of experience he has behind center over the past 10 years. But there's more reason to think he will succeed with the Chiefs.
For starters, perhaps you've heard of Todd Haley? He helped lead an offensive revitalization in Arizona before jumping ship to the Chiefs. Now, Cassel might not have Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, but he does have Dwayne Bowe. Tony Gonzalez's loss hurts, for sure, but when you factor in the likelihood of the Chiefs being down a lot early, not having much of a running game, and Haley's willingness to chuck the ball, I think Cassel makes for an excellent mid-round QB1 pick. Especially if you pair him with a guy like...
David Garrard, Jacksonville -- I should hate Garrard simply because he's a byproduct of East Carolina (it's a family/friend thing, sorry). And a lot of people do hate Garrard, because of the horrid numbers he lobbed up in 2008. But there are key points to remember from last year's Jaguars team. First off, the offensive line was worse than shredded; it was practically non-existent. Secondly, the wide receivers were somehow even more embarrassing, if that's possible.
The Jags managed to address those needs relatively quickly though, signing NCSU (represent!) hero Torry Holt to a deal and drafting both Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton to shore up the offensive line. Holt obviously needs no introduction and while it might seem folly to hinge offensive line hopes on a pair of rooks, I'll simply point to Jeff Otah in Carolina last year and move quickly to the point: It's a position where a talented, already-polished player can help immediately. Garrard to me represents a superb later-round selection as a QB2. Or, alternately, you could take...
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle -- The reason I love pairing a guy like Hassybeck with a guy like Cassel is that they don't have corresponding bye weeks. Oh, and also because Matty is the type of guy, much like Garrard and Pennington, who doesn't have a ton of downside. Could he get hurt and miss a ton of games again? Sure. But that's why you don't hinge your season on him (by pairing him with a lower-end "stud quarterback").
At any rate, he's due to bounce back this year. If he's healthy, 3,250 yards is a stone-cold lockjobber, and there's some upside there, particularly with a lack of running game in Seattle and the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to the receiving corps. Some folks will point out that Housh doesn't fit/know the system, but that's poppycock: he's a possession receiver that should roll tide in the West Coast offense.












Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-15-2009 @ 1:02AM
Tom Whitt said...
Well done sir. I'm ready for drafts
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