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Kyle Orton Dead Arm Syndrome: a condition characterized by a complete lack of strength in the upper arm. Despite hosting the NFL's second most productive offense in 2008, averaging just shy of 400 yards per game, and the third best passing offense in the league, the introduction of Orton as the starting quarterback puts the kibosh on the productivity. Orton has a weak arm, relies heavily on check-down passes and makes bad decisions. In terms of supporting cast, the receivers are a huge upgrade from his days in Chicago with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, but Marshall wants out so be sure to keep a close eye on this situation. Also, new head coach and signal-caller Josh McDaniels runs a spread offense, so he'll need to rely on Orton probably more than anyone would ever want. I don't expect the offense to suffer immensely with a solid new batch of runners, but it definitely takes a dive from last season.
The Breakout
It is very rare that I back a rookie for a breakout, but Knowshon Moreno looks like the guy in Denver. I know, I know; it's the Denver backfield. Still, Mike Shanahan is gone and the noob on the block, Josh McDaniels, should be a bit more transparent with his running game. Sizing up the competition back there with Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, and perhaps Ryan Torain competing for carries, this will be a tough spot to win, but are any of those guys really the future of the organization? Moreno is going to be the guy in Denver for a long time and it starts this season.
The Bust
Not to discredit Hillis on his triumphant fill-in role in the decimated Broncos backfield last season -- scoring five TDs in just four starts before suffering a hamstring injury -- but he'll be playing a more traditional fullback role this season. While he should ascend to become an important player in the NFL, his fantasy status will tank to that of a late-season waiver wire leak-plugger. He should find the end zone a handful of times, but he certainly won't be carrying the load with a whole slew of new talent in the Denver backfield.
The Depth Chart
QB1 - Kyle Orton
QB2 - Chris Simms
RB1 - Correll Buckhalter
RB2 - LaMont Jordan
RB3 - Knowshon Moreno (expected to be #1 ev
RB4 - Peyton Hillis (listed as starting Fullback)
WR1 - Brandon Marshall
WR2 - Eddie Royal
WR3 - Brandon Stokley
WR4 - Brandon Lloyd
WR5 - Jabar Gaffney
WR6 - Matt Willis
TE1 – Daniel Graham (Graham is the blocking TE, but Scheffler is really the receiving threat)
TE2 – Tony Scheffler
K – Matt Prater
The D/ST
With a new face in Mike Nolan at the helm on defense, the initial reaction might lead one to hope for an improvement in 2009, but the personnel is still not there. The Broncos' pass rush is weak and they do not know how to stop the run. In 2008, Denver ranked 30th in points allowed, 27th against the run and 26th against the pass. Unless things take a miraculous turn under Nolan, owners should not consider the Denver defense as a reliable start.
The Skinny
There are an awful lot of moving parts with a new head coach, a new (read: awful) quarterback, and a stacked, yet totally uncertain backfield situation. The key to successfully maneuvering the Broncos from a fantasy perspective is to only go after players if they fall to good values and most importantly, to watch closely.
- The one thing to keep in mind with the Broncos is that they have a terrific offensive line. Last season, despite working through eight different starting running backs, they still averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 116 yards per game. As per the norm with Denver, figuring out which back will get the ball is the tricky part. The smart money is on Moreno, but whoever gets the ball will produce.
- In terms of the passing game, temper all expectations and play it safe. If Marshall remains in Denver and falls to a relatively low round in your draft, he makes a sensible pickup and Royal should get his fair share of targets, but these are guys to take only if available on the cheap. Like it or not, their value is down and their productivity should follow. As for Orton, he may prove to be a serviceable to solid No. 2 quarterback and should be available late, but do not get your hopes up.
Finally, McDaniels likes blocking tight ends, so Tony Scheffler likely will not make a huge splash. He's just a decent No. 2 this year. Then again, my FanHouse colleague Matt Snyder argues otherwise, expecting Orton's weaker arm to ultimately benefit Scheffler.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-11-2009 @ 4:31PM
dtv428 said...
Denver has been a perennial powerhouse over the years with Elway and company! Back 2 Back plus 4 other Super Bowl appearances!Remember every year there is always a Cinderella!
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