The Death of the Fantasy Sleeper

Since fantasy sports exploded onto the national scene, "sleeper" has become the most overused term in the hobby. About a decade ago, one of the best ways to win fantasy leagues was to unearth productive players who others in your league either wrote off or hadn't heard of before the season.

After the last several years, though, I have come to the realization there is simply no such thing as a sleeper, at least in the sense that most people use the term. With the growth of fantasy football on the Internet (seriously, google "fantasy football," but then just come back here) and the myriad preview magazines available on newsstand shelves beginning in June, there just isn't some holy grail of unknown players anymore.

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Fantasy football players, could I name anyone you haven't heard of? Let me throw out some names, and see if you know them: Austin Collie, David Clowney, Glen Coffee, Chaz Schilens and Jerheme Urban. Odds are, you've probably at least heard of them if you've been preparing for this fantasy football season. If not, it's entirely possible you don't need to know any of them. None of these guys are going to help you in normal-sized yearly leagues, unless you have incredibly deep rosters. In deeper leagues these are guys who you can entertain toward the end of the draft, but they aren't going to be game-changers in the current circumstances. Sure, you can pound your chest about how much NFL knowledge you have when you announce their name on draft day and about five of your league-mates say "who?" That's not going to help these players win you fantasy crowns, though.

So, do I try to name someone like a "sleeper" in each team preview, to show off my oh-so-impressive knowledge of depth charts? I'd say no, lest some poor reader -- who is new to fantasy football -- snag all five of those guys thinking his team is stacked. The much better method to gloss someone an actual "sleeper" is a player who will outperform his draft-day position. For example, Thomas Jones was a very solid sleeper last year. He was going far too late in drafts and he ended up scoring a career-high in touchdowns. But everyone already knew who he was. They just didn't care.

Let us rewind back to last July, though. What if every single publication and Web site discussing fantasy football had tabbed Jones as a sleeper -- like, ahem, we did -- who would bust through for double-digit touchdowns? Would he still have provided near as much value? Maybe, maybe not. Depends upon your league-mates.

It's all a judgment call, of course, but don't go drooling over every player you read is a "sleeper." There are far too many die-hard football fans out there and far too much information to believe you are going to pull the proverbial wool over their eyes by selecting a player far too early because FanHouse told you he was under the radar.

The true, old-school sleeper is dead. Now, the key word is value. Make sure you get guys at their proper value and all will be well.

Here are a few guys who I'm worried are getting so much preseason attention for being underrated that they are in danger of becoming overrated (like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in baseball season, to those fantasy baseballers reading). It may not have happened yet, but it's started. We'll have to take a look in August and see if the trend continues. Thus, don't avoid these guys just yet -- this is more of a yellow flag.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts: I already covered him while hinting at this phenomenon in the Colts team preview. Yes, Marvin Harrison is gone. Gonzalez will get increased looks, but he won't be the second option in the passing game -- Dallas Clark will. Gonzalez, though, is creeping up into the early twenties or even late teens in terms of receivers being taken. That's far too high, and I believe the hype will pick up steam as we get closer to the season.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: There are lots of reasons to love Thomas, but we have to curb a little enthusiasm due to the fact that he's still in somewhat of a time-share with Reggie Bush and plays on a team which passes the ball with insane frequency. He's currently going 16th out of running backs, immediately ahead of Thomas Jones and Ryan Grant. Both of those two have better value at this point.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: And right behind Grant? Kevin Smith of the Detroit Lions. He's going 19th. The Lions are going to get better (it's impossible not to), but they still have a suspect line and will play some pretty stout run defenses this season. You can get Darren McFadden or Larry Johnson two rounds later, which I'd love to do.

Greg Olsen, TE, Bears: Yes, the Bears now have a better quarterback, but Olsen got plenty of attention, especially in the red zone, from Kyle Orton last season. Olsen is being drafted ahead of Chris Cooley and a whole round earlier than Owen Daniels. Not sure I can get on board with that, even being a Bears homer.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: He's never been able to find consistency, and now we're expecting it when he's playing second fiddle to Terrell Owens? I'm OK with Evans as a WR3, but he's pretty shaky as a WR2 right now.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Niners: It hasn't happened yet, but the closer we get to the season, the more we'll be hearing about how healthy Crabtree is, and it will help him skyrocket up fantasy draft boards. Remember, he's still a rookie and doesn't have a great quarterback. Do you know what this line is? 48 catches, 756 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's right, Calvin Johnson's line his rookie season. How about this one: 58 catches, 780 yards and 8 scores. Larry Fitzgerald. Is Crabtree more talented than those two? Does he have a much better situation than either did?

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: He actually may be valued just fine. Let's just remember he's never done anything without the cushy Patriots offense at his disposal.

Ryan Dembinsky pointed out the capability Steve Slaton has to join this group as well.

It's entirely possible these guys can be solid fantasy options, but don't pay too hefty a price. Remember, a player's value is always relative to what you paid for him -- and every league is different. In fact, it's possible for a player to be a huge bust in one league and great value in another.

The only person listed above I'm 100 percent avoiding this year is Crabtree. I'd easily consider any of the others if they fell to where I deemed them a solid value pick. Just beware of trying to beat all your league-mates to them.

Remember, the sleeper is dead.