Romo, Holmes and Three Other Guys I'm Avoiding in 2009 Drafts

Earlier in the week, I let you in on the five guys I feel will help you win your fantasy league this year. The flip side of those potential goldmines are the potential landmines, players that are going far too early in drafts and/or guys that have a high chance of disappointing their owners.

If you poke and prod enough, you'll find something to dislike about almost every player that will be on fantasy football teams this season. With the following five guys, I didn't really have to dig at all to find reasons I won't be drafting them this year.

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Tony Romo

The Cowboys quarterback has been a great fantasy player -- but that was during the Terrell Owens era. While throwing at Owens over 140 times each of the last three years (including last year when Romo missed a few games in the middle of the season), Romo has been great, peaking as the No. 2 QB in the league in 2007. Now T.O. is out the door, and replacing him as the number one option is Roy Williams, a guy that hasn't been a great fantasy receiver since 2006. Is Romo good enough to succeed without Owens?

Will the coaching staff even give him the opportunity? Dallas has a great three-headed rushing attack and an outstanding offensive line, and the team is looking to become more run-centric this year. This is all bad news for the first QB drafted after the clear top six at the position comes off the board. Owners are spending a fifth- or sixth-round pick on Romo, and I just think that's too high for the questions that Romo brings to your team.

Michael Turner

No, I don't think Turner's production will fall off a cliff in 2009. However, there are far too many issues with the Atlanta running back that should preclude him from being the second overall pick in leagues. He doesn't get any work in the passing game, as evidenced by his six catches on nine targets last year. 376 carries and six catches? That alone should be enough to give owners pause.

If Turner's not catching the ball, he's going to need another 350 carries and a TD total in the high teens in order to just reach the value of a No. 2 pick. The Falcons now have an excellent tight end in Tony Gonzalez and are vowing to get the explosive Jerious Norwood more involved in the offense this year. For these reasons, I see Turner as having the best chance of all RBs in contention for the No. 2 overall pick of falling short of expectations.

Marshawn Lynch

Do you really think Lynch is going to clean up his act and avoid another run-in with the law and the subsequent suspension that will come along with it? If so, I have a bridge to sell you. The Buffalo running back has been the poster-child for off-the-field incidents since entering the draft in 2007. When on the field he's been great, but an NFL player that consistently puts himself in precarious situations is likely to see the hammer drop sooner or later. Ask Pacman Jones.

Lynch is scheduled to miss the first three games of the 2009 season, and considering the Bills signed a solid backup running back in Dominic Rhodes to go along with their incumbent backup Fred Jackson, Lynch could be on his last legs in Buffalo. It's a wonder that Lynch is still being drafted as a top 20 RB, in front of Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, and others with far fewer question marks.

Brandon Marshall

Since tabbing Roy Williams to disappoint after already using a pick on Romo would be overkill, I'll try and convince you to avoid Marshall, the receiver that's being drafted just ahead of Williams this year. I might not know a lot about Josh McDaniels' plans for Denver's offense, but I can be pretty certain it doesn't involve Kyle Orton throwing the ball to Marshall 181 times like Jay Cutler did in 2008. In addition to Orton's obvious limited capabilities, another reason to expect less passing this year is the addition of first-round pick Moreno. If you had to sign Tatum Bell away from his mall job of selling cell phones and give him 44 carries, you'd air the ball out as much as possible too.

Marshall has also demanded a trade, a new contract, and a gassed-up jet to the exotic island of his choice, and he had better not see any cops at the airport. OK, I made that last demand up. It's unlikely another team will step up and give the Broncos a package they feel equals the worth of their star receiver, and I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Denver to give the malcontent a new contract. Take that fourth-round pick and spend it on a nice RB or a WR with less bust potential.

Santonio Holmes

Super Bowl MVPs generally get over-drafted, as the last image a fantasy owner has of a guy tends to stick with him heading into next year's draft. Without looking, how many 100-yard games did Holmes produce last year? How many weeks did Holmes score multiple TDs? The answer to both questions is zero. So what changes this year that makes Santonio the 20th receiver picked in fantasy drafts?

Hines Ward returns, and remember that Ward significantly outproduced Holmes in 2008. In fact, the gap between Ward's numbers and Holmes' numbers was bigger than the gap between Holmes' numbers and the numbers of No. 3 receiver Nate Washington. Ward has led the Steelers in targets in each of Holmes' first three years with the team, and he's shown no reason to bet against him this year. Yet Holmes is generally selected two rounds ahead of Ward in 2009 drafts. I'd take Ward and every other fifth-round and sixth-round receiver ahead of Holmes.

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