With Fantasy Football season ready to kick in high gear, FanHouse is here to preview each and every team -- one per day until we've done them all. Meet the ...
Team under Peyton's leadership for the first time without Tom Moore*. That's right. Peyton's only offensive coordinator for his entire 11-year career has been the venerable Moore. Moore's first year at the helm was Manning's rookie season, so the two grew together. It's going to be interesting to see how Manning fares without his mentor calling the shots.
Of course, Manning's obviously cerebral enough to deal quite well with the transition, and the Colts have enough weapons in their arsenal to remain the high-octane offense we're used to seeing every fall.
The Breakout
Well, two guys will be sufficiently covered on this team in this category everywhere you look: Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown. The reasons are easy. For Gonzalez, he's entering his third season and Marvin Harrison has taken his 107 targets from last season with him. I get worried when players like Gonzalez are excessively hyped during pre-fantasy draft season -- we were no different -- because by the time it gets to mid-August, people who don't even watch football are talking about this Gonzalez kid from Indy. That's a recipe for someone being drafted too early. That's not a breakout campaign. Actually, see below under "The Bust."
As far as Brown, though, I like it. He hasn't been getting an insane amount of love yet and he's going 33rd amongst running backs. He'll be splitting time in the backfield, and in college he showed the ability to carry a heavy workload. He's normally coming off the board in fantasy drafts around the same time as Willis McGahee and Cedric Benson. I'd take Brown based purely upon upside at my RB3 over those guys.
The Bust
It's becoming pretty popular to select Joseph Addai for bust-hood because the Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round. But, like above, the masses flocking to one singular opinion makes me want to swing in the other direction. I predict Addai's going to go tumbling down draft boards, therefore he's not really going to be a huge bust, due to lowered expectations. If he hangs where he is currently (21st among running backs), I'd certainly let someone else take him, but I'm counting on a drop.
Plus, I'd rather be a bit bold here, so I'll go with Gonzalez. Bust doesn't mean someone is going to be a bad player. I can preach until I'm blue in the face and some people still misunderstand. Gonzalez will be much better this year than he was in 2008 and I'm not discounting Bernstein's assertion that he'll go for 72 catches and 1,000 yards. But he's currently being drafted 20th on average amongst wide receivers. With all the aforementioned hype he's getting as being a breakout candidate in every magazine and on every Web site, what do you wanna bet he climbs into the mid-teens? That's way too high, especially when Manning will lean more on Dallas Clark (who had 107 targets in 2008 and is a favorite red-zone target) than Gonzalez.
I'm fine with Gonzalez in the 30-range for receivers, but in the top 20 makes him a bust.
The Depth Chart
QB1 - Peyton Manning
QB2 - Jim Sorgi/Curtis Painter (not that it matters, if Peyton goes down they are screwed)
RB1 - Joseph Addai
RB2 - Donald Brown
RB3 - Mike Hart
WR1 - Reggie Wayne
WR2 - Anthony Gonzalez
WR3 - Pierre Garcon
WR4 - Austin Collie
WR5 - Roy Hall
TE1 - Dallas Clark
TE2 - Gijon Robinson
K - Adam Vinatieri
The D/ST
Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks were the head coach and defensive coordinator, respectively, for the last several years. They are now gone. The new administration, so to speak, has said they will have the players take more chances rather than sitting rigidly in the cover-2 assignments. This could mean huge defensive breakdowns when opportunities are missed to the real team, but for the fantasy D/ST, that means we should see an increase in takeaways. And you know with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney the sacks are going to be there.
Last year, the Colts were middle of the pack with 30 sacks. They tied for 13th in the NFL with 26 takeaways. They added a strong defensive tackle in the draft (Fili Moala from USC), but otherwise the defensive personnel is pretty much the same. If Bob Sanders can play more than the six games he did last season, they'll be a solid, high-end D/ST2.
The Skinny
• As usual, fantasy players should love the Colts. Manning, Wayne and Clark are elite options. Addai and Brown may be bargain backs, depending where you can get them, but they should begin in the RB3 range. Gonzalez will help you if he slips down closer to 30th among receivers instead of 20th. Vinatieri can be considered a low-end kicker option, but he's more name than fantasy points.
• The bottom line is that having a team with several Colts on it won't be a bad thing at all, as long as you don't lose sight of overall value.
*- Moore has rejoined the Colts as a consultant, even though he's not technically the offensive coordinator. It is yet another reason the transition shouldn't bother Manning much.
