In what was originally thought to be a simple arthroscopic knee surgery, it turns out that during the offseason, Marques Colston underwent a more complicated knee procedure known as microfracture surgery. The news of the surgery comes as no surprise, given Colston missed six games in 2008 due to injuries (though mainly due to a torn ligament in his thumb). But the increased severity of a microfracture surgery -- as opposed to a simple scope -- calls into question whether Colston's fantasy value should take a dip in 2009.
According the The New Orleans Times-Picayune, Colston is already practicing at nearly full speed, but there are concerns about Colston's ability to produce for the duration of the 2009 season:
We don't know yet how quickly Colston will return to 100 percent, but he's already running around on the practice field and should be full speed by training camp. If the knee isn't an issue, I expect him to get back to being Brees' favorite target, catching about 90 balls for over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns.I'm no doctor, but given a list of microfracture surgery alumni that includes Greg Oden and Tracy McGrady, this should not be glossed over simply because Colston appears to be running well and healing more quickly than expected. Colston reportedly developed a small hole in his kneecap, whereby the surgery should help in building up new cartilage to support the knee. This surgery generally proves quite reliable with high success rates of 75-80 percent, but the new cartilage is allegedly not as reliable as the original and more likely to break down over time.
Couple this with the fact that Drew Brees has a more-than-serviceable supporting cast for Colston, including 2008 fantasy stud Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, breakout-in-waiting Robert Meachem, Adrian Arrington (who will play his first NFL season after spending his 2008 rookie year on the injured reserve), Jeremy Shockey, and of course, the backfield tandem of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Even if Colston does return to his former self and reclaims his spot as Brees' favorite target, we will not likely see 2007 all over again. With a far more diversified offense, Colston will likely be looking at less targets.
A healthy Colston should easily make for a solid No. 2 fantasy wide receiver -- good for 75-80 catches -- but temper expectations for anything beyond that. The risk of ongoing injuries and a share-the-wealth offensive attack should factor into any decision to draft Colston for 2009. Until further notice, do not pull the trigger on Colston any time before the fourth round.
