With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions surprised nobody by inking a deal with the former Georgia Bulldog quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Long before the draft began at 4 pm this afternoon, Detroit and Stafford agreed on Friday night to a six-year deal worth $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed. While most young quarterbacks might be tempted to pull the Elway and start singing, "I gotta get out of this place, if it's the last thing I ever do," Stafford, on the contrary, seems genuinely excited to be a Lion and up to the challenge of turning this team around under his leadership. This, combined with a pretty savvy contract by the Lions that puts a lot of that $78 million in incentives based on playing time, looks like a recipe for success. So, the question remains, does Matt Stafford have fantasy value for the upcoming season in Detroit as a rookie?
The reality from a fantasy perspective on Stafford is that he becomes a valid late round flier at best, but probably more of a waiver wire pickup around about week four. I highly doubt he will come in and start every snap, but rather take his time learning the playbook behind the newly lean Daunte Culpepper. Stafford's contract in year one makes some provisions for him to play a minimum of 35% of the snaps, so I would expect him to start within the first 5 or 6 games, but keep in mind his supporting cast. Culpepper will be the tackling dummy for week one, while Stafford eases his way into the league.
Also, don't get swept up into thinking that Matt Stafford to Calvin Johnson is an automatic touchdown machine. Calvin Johnson will be fine and he will continue his ascent to one of the league's elite wide receivers, but the real issue for Stafford is the Lions still have a poor offensive line and no running game whatsoever. The Gosder Cherilus pick in the first round last season certainly improved the offensive line last season, but this is the area to watch to gauge Stafford's worth. If the Lions do not fortify these areas throughout the draft and free agency by focusing on the line and running game, expect Stafford to spend a lot of time on his back and make a lot of bad decisions as he'll be under a lot of pressure.
In the long run, Stafford should be a good fit for the Lions. Offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, likes throwing in the red zone and is known to air it out for the long ball, so once this team gets its nuts and bolts back in order, Stafford should be a solid fantasy quarterback in the league. Believe it or not, the Lions just selected a first round pick that will actually pan out. So, to sum it up Stafford makes a decent long-shot pick for dynasty keeper leagues, but other than that, just keep one eye on his progress and the other eye on the waiver wire.
