Evaluating the Bengals' Fantasy Value

For a four-year span, the Cincinnati Bengals were an offensive juggernaut, a fantasy player's delight. In 2009, though, that all came unraveled in almost exaggerated fashion. It's true we warned you to be afraid of the Bengals, but even the FanHouse geniuses couldn't have predicted this. The Bengals finished dead last in football in total offense. They checked in, again, at number 32 with only a paltry 12.8 points per game.

That's embarrassing territory for a team who had grown accustomed to lighting up the scoreboard. Can we expect a bounce-back from the once dominant offense?

First, let's layout the problems they suffered last season. It wasn't just a case of the offense going from good to bad with little reason. Carson Palmer was injured for most of the season. While he seems to be an awfully nice guy, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty terrible NFL quarterback. The running back situation was in disarray, after the Bengals cut Rudi Johnson and discovered just how ill-equipped to handle the full load Chris Perry is. Chad Johnson played the season with a torn labrum.

As you can see, there are ways to justify the futility. We can't necessarily count on a full-scale bounce-back, though. For one, T.J. Houshmandzadeh had grown into an elite receiver, and he's fled the scene. His replacement, Laveranues Coles, is a bit of a downgrade. Carson Palmer may not be totally healthy, as he decided against surgery on his torn up elbow. Finally, I'm not sold on Cedric Benson lasting an entire season as a featured back. This could be a bit of Bears fan bias shining through, and I'll readily admit that. I'm just saying that a selfish person like Benson playing hard for a handful of games -- when he wants a contract -- hardly sells me on him.

That was all negative, though, so let's realistically examine the key offensive personnel:

Palmer - He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league as a second-year starter in 2005. Since that torn-ACL in the playoffs, though, his touchdowns and rating have regressed while his interceptions have gone up. Still, the threw for over 4,000 yards in each season and averaged 27 touchdown passes in the same span. A return to those numbers is reachable. He's still only 29, after all.

Benson - Through Week 14, Benson only had one worthwhile fantasy game (a 104-yard, one touchdown effort agaisnt Jacksonville). Then he kicked it into high gear, playing like the beast we saw (occasionally) at the University of Texas for three games. Still, he only got into the end-zone twice all year, and averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry. Sorry, Bengals fans, he's just not that good. And now he's signed a two-year deal. Bye bye, motivation. He's good for about 850 yards and four touchdowns. If you think that's good, go ahead and draft him.

Ocho Cinco (Johnson) - I've long been in the camp against owning this clown, but I'm going to change my tune. I think he'll end up providing good value this season. He's 31, and he'll enter the season very motivated and healthy. Unlike Benson, Johnson wants to succeed for personal pride. He's too proud to have another season like 2008, as long as there is still gas in the tank. I believe there is. With Houshmandzadeh leaving, Johnson now becomes the possession receiver. With a healthy Palmer, Ocho will make a run at his first 100-catch season and break the 1,300 yard mark. Expect about 10 touchdowns as well.

Coles - Those back-to-back 1,200 yard campaigns seem so long ago, don't they? Well, they kind of were, because there have been five seasons since then. The thing about Coles is that he's still not old. In fact, he's a few months younger than Housh. We'll never see the star in Coles again, but it's reasonable to believe he reaches 75 catches, 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns this season -- assuming Palmer stays on the field. Remember, the Bengals are far more reliant on the pass than the Jets were last season.

To summarize, expect a much better offensive team in Cincy for 2009. They won't return all the way to form, but they'll be quite a distance from worst in the league.