The Fred Taylor situation is already biting at me from both sides. The good side of the conscious is dressed in white, perched on the left shoulder, and saying, "Dude, it's freaking Fred Taylor. You know he will be hurt by week five and New England's running game will be stuck centering on shuffle passes to Kevin Faulk." On the flip side, the other half of the conscious is dressed in black leather with a pack of cigarettes rolled in his sleeve, sitting on his Harley, saying "Jump on it, man. This is the next genius move by New England. He is going to dominate just like Corey Dillon did when he came into to town and scored 39 touchdowns in three seasons. It's a system that has been missing the key guy, and Taylor is that guy."In other words, this is a tough call that could really go either way. One thing we know for sure is that this has wide reaching fantasy impact, so let's take a look at the winners and losers in the wake of this bold signing.Bulls (Stocks Rise)
Fred Taylor – Let me make one thing abundantly clear. Fred Taylor has the potential to make one of the biggest impacts in fantasy football next season and I think it will be with his upside, BUT consider this pickup as you would a weighted average of two outcomes. In other words, let's rate Fred Taylor's based on two scenarios: 1) he does become the next New England paydirt magnet like Corey Dillon, in which case he gets a ten rating or, 2) he gets injured and provides little nothing, in which case he gets a one rating. Thus, place a 50% probability on each of these and you get about a five. In other words, only draft him in the middle of the pack. If your opponents want to take him in the first four rounds, let them. Otherwise, aim to draft Fred Taylor only on the cheap. I'd say fifth round or later and he is a steal.
Tom Brady – I think this pickup reaps huge dividends for Tom Brady. With Brady looking to overcome major knee surgery, an upgrade to the running game is critical. This will help keep defenses honest and provide a game breaker in the backfield, taking a lot of pressure off of Brady to come back and totally carry the load.
Randy Moss and Wes Welker – The same applies to Moss and Welker. What is good for Brady is good for the receivers. It's easy to point at Cassel for the drop off in production, but I'm willing to bet if Brady played last season, the results would have been comparable. The lack of a running game will take the burst out of any passing game; regardless of if Randy Moss is involved (see Oakland Raiders).
Maurice Jones-Drew – As if MJD needed any help with his fantasy numbers, he should see an increased workload thanks to the departure of his suitemate, which should translate to more productivity. Beware of injuries if they lean on him too heavily, but I predict MJD skyrocketing into the fantasy stratosphere. He scored 34 touchdowns in three years in a committee, so just imagine what he might do next season. MJD is a top five pick overall.
Bears (Stocks Drops)
Sammy Morris - Morris is probably the only running back with any fantasy value on New England besides Taylor. Morris is 31 years old and struggled to earn a steady spot while given every opportunity last season. He's worth taking as a late round flier as he'll still touch the ball and probably get some goal line duties, but his shot at becoming a real fantasy juggernaut are over.
BenJarvus Green Ellis – As much as I'll miss trying to remember how to type this guys name, this might be the last time. His fantasy value is non-existent from this point forward barring any injury epidemics in the backfield.
Lamont Jordan – Jordan's time in New England will likely come to an end as he is allegedly shopping himself on the open market. Lamont will likely find himself a third sting role, but he's the running back equivalent of Joey Harrington at this point. You only get so many chances in the NFL, before the whole league gives up on you.
